The global financial institution UBS said it expects momentum in China's equity market to continue into 2026, forecasting that A-share company profits to rise by eight percent in 2026 and the country's economy will expand by 4.5 percent.
UBS released its annual outlook at a conference in Shanghai on Tuesday, striking an optimistic note on both equities and growth. It projects A-share company profits to rise this year, following a 5.5 percent increase in the first three quarters of 2025, driven largely by financial sector gains.
China's equity market has rallied in recent months. The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed the 4,000-point mark by the end of 2025.
While projected GDP growth in 2026 may appear more moderate, UBS analysts said that growth will be supported by improvements in the real economy.
"The supportive policies that are coming, obviously, it's the 15th Five-Year Plan, and I think we're very excited about what that means, and the technology side, equally I think, when it comes to biotech, there's a lot of excitement. Clearly there's always been a lot of interest in EVs, the brands becoming global, Chinese brands. I live in London. You can't go anywhere without seeing Chinese electric vehicles and Chinese mobile phones. So I think that the potential for continued growth is real," said Neil Hosie, global head of execution services at UBS Global Markets.
UBS said that challenges remain, particularly in boosting domestic consumption and stabilizing the property sector, but the company maintains a generally positive outlook.
"China appears to be pretty resilient to tariffs, which is very good news for China. On the other end, of course China, there are more sort of long-term challenges, which is really about the sort of geopolitical environment. That's one. The second one is more purely economic, and it is really about maintaining this growth between 4 and 5 percent. We currently have a growth forecast of 4.5 percent for 2026. We are confident this can be achieved, but over the medium and long term, these issues will have to be addressed eventually," said Massimiliano Castelli, head of global strategy for global sovereign markets at UBS Asset Management.
UBS forecasts 8 pct growth in China's equity market for 2026
Some Iranians in Türkiye are crossing back over the border, driven by worry and desperation, as a nationwide communications blackout in Iran has left them cut off from their loved ones.
Protests have erupted in many Iranian cities since Dec. 28. They initially began with Tehran bazaar merchants demonstrating against the sharp devaluation of the national currency rial, and soaring inflation, before spreading to other cities. The unrest has led to casualties among both security forces and civilians.
At the Turkish-Iranian border, many are returning with no certainty about what awaits them, filled instead with questions and growing fear for those on the other side of the border.
"I went to Van yesterday for internet. I urgently needed to use the internet. I got it done. Now I'm heading straight back. There are protests everywhere. We can't get any news. We can't communicate with our families. And it's not just me, there are many Iranians outside the country who can't reach their families," said Feriste, an Iranian citizen.
With communications blacked out across Iran, those outside the country feel powerless to check on the situation back home. For some, this silence has prompted them to return across the border, even as tensions continue to rise.
"We can't get any news. There is no internet. Everything is shut down. I want to search. I want to find out. I want to see my brother. I'm going to see my family," said Husnu, an Iranian citizen.
"I work in Türkiye, and I have no news from Iran at all. I'm going back because I'm worried about my family. It's been days since I last heard from them, and because I'm worried, I'm returning to Iran now. Of course, we are concerned about our safety. We don't know what awaits us there," said another Iranian.
With protests escalating and government blackouts still in place, many Iranians are caught between staying in safety abroad and risking everything to reconnect with their families.
"We had to come to Türkiye because we couldn't reach our families. Schools were closed already. All official institutions were shut down. We have no information about other cities either, because there is no communication network there. There is no television, no internet. We can't even check Twitter," said Nazlican, another Iranian citizen.
Iranians in Türkiye return home, fearing for their families amid unrest in Iran
Iranians in Türkiye return home, fearing for their families amid unrest in Iran
