Pro Picks: Broncos, Seahawks, Texans, Rams will advance to conference championship games

Only one of the eight remaining starting quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs has won a Super Bowl.

All-Pro Matthew Stafford led the Los Angeles Rams to a Lombardi trophy four years ago. He rallied them to a victory at Carolina last week to set up a divisional round matchup at Chicago on Sunday.

The Rams are 3 1/2-road favorites against the Bears on BetMGM Sportsbook. Home teams are the favorites in the other three second-round games.

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers fell short in the Super Bowl against Kansas City in overtime two years ago.

The Niners eliminated the defending champion Eagles to advance to face Seattle on Saturday night in a battle between NFC West rivals who played for the No. 1 seed in Week 18.

Josh Allen and the Bills have been knocked out of the playoffs by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs four times in the past five years. Buffalo’s comeback win at Jacksonville sends the Bills to Denver on Saturday, aiming to get back to the AFC title game for the second straight year.

Houston’s dominant defense ended Mike Tomlin’s tenure in Pittsburgh and possibly Aaron Rodgers’ career, giving C.J. Stroud another opportunity when the Texans play in New England on Sunday.

Caleb Williams and Drake Maye — first-round picks in 2024 — each won their first playoff game last week. Bo Nix, another first-round pick in that draft class, made the playoffs as a rookie, losing to the Bills. But the Broncos earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed this season.

Pro Picks examines each divisional game:

Line: Broncos minus 1

Allen is held to a higher standard than other quarterbacks. Critics are ready to blame him for a loss regardless of what transpires in the game. He willed the Bills to victory against the Jaguars and now has to face the league’s No. 2 defense in a rematch from last year’s wild-card round.

Buffalo dominated Denver 31-7 in that one. But these Broncos are the AFC’s top team and are coming off a bye while the Bills are playing six days after Allen got beat up in Jacksonville.

James Cook, the NFL rushing champion, only had 46 yards for Buffalo against the best run defense in the NFL last week. It won’t be easier against Denver, which was second against run. The Broncos also set a franchise record in sacks with 68. They’re stacked on defense with All-Pro defensive lineman Zach Allen, edge rusher Nik Bonitto, cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Talanoa Hufanga.

Nix led Denver to seven fourth-quarter comebacks. He’s going against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense.

BRONCOS: 24-22

Line: Seahawks minus 7 1/2

The depleted 49ers somehow keep finding ways to win while continuing to lose key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle tore his Achilles tendon against the Eagles. All-Pro Christian McCaffrey had two touchdown catches, including one from wide receiver Jauan Jennings.

Even without stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on defense, San Francisco is a win away from the NFC championship game. The 49ers will face the Seahawks for the third time after each team won on the road. Seattle’s 13-3 victory two weeks locked up the division and home-field advantage.

Sam Darnold joined Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to win 14 games in consecutive seasons. He’s trying for his first career playoff win.

All-Pro wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 TDs for the Seahawks. Seattle’s stingy defense had three players make second-team All-Pro: defensive tackle Leonard Williams, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and linebacker Ernest Jones.

The 49ers are 8-2 ATS on the road. The Seahawks are 9-8 at home under coach Mike Macdonald, 15-2 on the road.

It’s a tough spot for the 49ers on short rest after a cross-country flight from Philadelphia last Sunday.

SEAHAWKS: 23-20

Line: Patriots minus 3

All-Pro edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and Houston’s top-ranked defense is coming off a dominant performance against Rodgers and the Steelers. The Texans have to do it again against Maye and the Patriots to win their 11th straight game and reach the AFC championship game for the first time in franchise history.

Stroud has to protect the ball better this week. He may not have Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins, who is in concussion protocol.

The Patriots also relied on defense in their playoff opener, shutting down Justin Herbert and the Chargers in a 16-3 win. They confounded Los Angeles with their scheme and will aim to do the same to Houston.

Maye led the team in rushing with 66 yards but the Patriots will need more from Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Maye had an outstanding season overall, earning second-team All-Pro honors. Houston will be his biggest challenge yet.

The Texans are 5-4 ATS on the road and the Patriots are 6-4 ATS at home.

UPSET SPECIAL: TEXANS: 17-16

Line: Rams minus 3 1/2

Stafford had to rally the Rams after they blew a 14-0 lead against the Panthers in a game that was not supposed to be close and ended up 34-31. Los Angeles needs a better defensive effort against Williams and the Bears. The Rams have allowed 30 points per game over the past five.

Down 21-3 at halftime against Green Bay, Chicago never flinched and Williams delivered his seventh fourth-quarter comeback win under rookie coach Ben Johnson.

The Bears have had to overcome slow starts quite often this season. They can’t continue to count on coming back and will need a four-quarter effort against the favored Rams.

The Rams are 6-4 ATS on the road and the Bears are 6-3 ATS at home.

BEST BET: RAMS: 30-23

Last week: Straight up: 5-1. Against spread: 4-2.

Overall: Straight up: 189-88-1. Against spread: 147-123-8.

Prime time: Straight up: 35-25-1. Against spread: 28-33.

Best Bet: Straight up: 13-6. Against spread: 8-10-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 14-5. Against spread: 15-4.

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud looks for a receiver during the first half of NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) rolls out to pass while pressured by San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle Sam Okuayinonu (91) during the second half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws a pass during the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Days before the U.S. military operation that removed Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro from power, Trump administration lawyers blessed the action by saying it would “not rise to the level of war in the constitutional sense” and would serve “important national interests,” according to a legal opinion that articulates a muscular view of presidential power.

The heavily redacted version of the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel opinion, released this week, sheds new light on how the administration came to conclude that it was legally permitted to oust Maduro as Venezuela's president in a stunning middle-of-the-night military operation Jan. 3.

The opinion, dated Dec. 23, was prepared for the legal adviser for the White House National Security Council. The 22-page document was drafted by lawyers at the Office of Legal Counsel, which is historically called upon to resolve thorny questions of law for the executive branch.

In this instance, the opinion wrestles with the question of whether President Donald Trump could order the military to aid law enforcement in removing Maduro from power so he could face criminal prosecution in the United States.

The answer, the opinion said, was yes. It cited five separate reasons, including what it said were “severe” allegations against Maduro contained in a drug-trafficking conspiracy indictment; the “numerous other highly dangerous activities" that he and his associates were alleged to be involved in; the possible need of military force to protect civilians in Venezuela and abroad from Venezuela; and the potential that U.S. personnel would encounter an “armed resistance” protecting Maduro.

“Here, we were told to assume that there were as many as 200 armed guards in a literal fort who have been sent from and armed by another country purely to ensure Maduro’s safety,” the opinion said. “This level of expected armed resistance supports the need for military forces to provide security for law enforcement personnel carrying out the rendition.”

Though the opinion does identify what it said were significant risks in the military operation, depending in part on Maduro's precise location at the time of the action, administration lawyers judged a low likelihood that it would lead to an all-out war that would require congressional approval.

Republican leaders have said they had no advance notification of the raid to seize Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Facing pressure from Trump, Senate Republicans voted to dismiss a resolution Wednesday that would have limited his ability to conduct further attacks against Venezuela.

“While we cannot speculate as to any presidential decision in response to the significant loss of U.S. servicemembers, we were assured that there is no contingency plan to engage in any substantial and sustained operation that would amount to a constitutional war,” the opinion said.

“We were further assured that there is no contingency plan that would involve using U.S. forces occupying Venezuela should the removal of Maduro result in civil unrest in that country. Based on that assessment of U.S. intentions, we do not currently plan any action that would amount to a constitutional war,” it added.

The legal opinion also says the fact that a president “can lawfully authorize the operation does not by itself render any and all use of force in its completion lawful.” The personnel involved, the opinion said, “must implement his lawful order in a reasonable way.”

President Donald Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine listen as Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, in Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)