Pro Picks: Patriots will top the Broncos and Rams will edge the Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl

The NFL’s conference championship games feature both No. 1 seeds, two division rivals and a backup quarterback making his first start of the season.

The Denver Broncos (15-3) host the New England Patriots (16-3) in the AFC title game on Sunday. It was Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady the previous time they met in the playoffs 10 years ago.

Now, it’s backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham for the Broncos against second-year standout Drake Maye.

Then it’s a showdown between NFC West foes when All-Pro quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (14-5) visit Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks (15-3) in the their third matchup of the season.

Pro Picks examines both games:

Line: Patriots minus 5 1/2

The Patriots are road favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook because the Broncos lost quarterback Bo Nix to an ankle injury in a 33-30 overtime win against Buffalo in the divisional round.

Stidham, who was selected by the Patriots in the fourth round of the 2019 draft to back up Brady, is making his fifth career start. He hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since 2023.

Maye threw three touchdown passes in the rain and snow last week and New England’s defense intercepted four passes, including a pick-6, in a 28-16 win against Houston. Maye lost two of his four fumbles in the nasty conditions but the Patriots are in the conference championship game for the 16th time in franchise history and first since going to eight in a row with Brady and coach Bill Belichick from 2011-18.

New England is seeking its 12th trip to the Super Bowl and seventh Lombardi Trophy. Coach Mike Vrabel earned three championship rings as a player with the Patriots in the 2000s.

The No. 1 seed Broncos are here for the first time since Manning and a dominant defense beat Brady and the Patriots 20-18 on the way to a victory over Carolina in the Super Bowl. Denver is 8-2 in AFC title games.

The Patriots had the league’s No. 3 offense in total yards behind Maye, running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte.

Denver’s defense led by All-Pro defensive lineman Zach Allen, edge rusher Nik Bonitto and cornerback Patrick Surtain II was second best in yards and third in points, allowing just 18.3 per game. New England’s defense was right behind, giving up only 18.8.

Broncos coach Sean Payton has valued Stidham as a backup and now he has to build a game plan around him in the biggest game of the season.

The Patriots are 13-5-1 against the spread while Denver is 8-9-1.

PATRIOTS: 20-16

Line: Seahawks minus 2 1/2

The Rams are seeking their third straight road win after eliminating Carolina in the wild-card round and beating Chicago 20-17 in overtime last week. Stafford and coach Sean McVay led them to a Super Bowl title four years ago and this will be the team's 12th NFC championship game.

The No. 1 seed Seahawks routed the 49ers 41-6 to advance to their fifth conference title game and first in 11 years.

Darnold has struggled against the Rams. Los Angeles sacked Darnold nine times and intercepted him once in a 27-9 wild-card victory last season when he was with Minnesota.

In Week 11, Darnold threw four picks in a 21-19 loss to the Rams. He nearly rallied the Seahawks to victory but Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal at the end.

On Dec. 18, Darnold tossed two interceptions and was sacked four times as Seattle fell behind Los Angeles by 16 points in the fourth quarter. But the Seahawks stormed back to tie it up, including a wacky 2-point conversion, and won 38-37 in overtime when Darnold connected with Eric Saubert on another 2-pointer.

The Rams had allowed 30 points per game over a five-game stretch before holding Caleb Williams and the Bears to 17. With Stafford, All-Pro receiver Puka Nacua and star wideout Davante Adams, the Rams led the league in yards and scoring at 30.5 points per game.

The Seahawks were third in scoring (28.4) and their defense featuring defensive tackle Leonard Williams, linebacker Ernest Jones IV and cornerback Devon Witherspoon gave up the fewest points (17.2 per game).

The Rams are 12-7 ATS while the Seahawks are 13-5.

UPSET SPECIAL: RAMS: 27-26

Last week: Straight up: 3-1. Against spread: 1-3.

Overall: Straight up: 192-89-1. Against spread: 148-126-8.

Prime time: Straight up: 36-25-1. Against spread: 28-34.

Best Bet: Straight up: 14-6. Against spread: 8-11-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 14-6. Against spread: 15-5.

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Leonard Williams (99) reacts after NFL football divisional playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)

Buffalo Bills cornerback Taron Johnson (7) is called for pass interference against Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) during overtime of an NFL divisional round playoff football game, Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) celebrates his touchdown run with wide receiver Konata Mumpfield (15), quarterback Matthew Stafford (9), offensive tackle Warren McClendon Jr. back right, and center Coleman Shelton (65) during the second half of an NFL football divisional playoff game Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) passes against the Houston Texans during the second half of an NFL divisional playoff football game, Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) — Europe is breathing a sigh of relief Thursday following a dramatic reversal by U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland the day before at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he scrapped the tariffs that he threatened to impose on eight European nations to press for U.S. control over Greenland.

Trump said there is a new framework with NATO on Arctic security without the U.S. using force to take over Greenland. Still, there were many unanswered questions about what the Greenland deal means.

Here is the latest:

Asian shares mostly advanced on Thursday, tracking Wall Street, after Trump walked back from imposing tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland and ruled out using military force to take control of the territory.

The future for the S&P 500 was up 0.4% on Thursday, while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.3%.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.9% to 53,760.85, with technology stocks among those leading the gain. SoftBank Group jumped 11% and chipmaker Tokyo Electron rose 3.7%.

The NATO chief is urging allies to “keep our eyes on the ball of Ukraine” after a standoff over Greenland that rattled the alliance appeared to ease a day earlier.

Rutte, speaking at the Ukraine breakfast, didn’t address a question about whether Greenland, which Trump has coveted, would remain a part of Denmark under the “framework of a future deal” announced by the president.

Rutte noted European plans to free up funds for Ukraine’s defense and U.S.-led talks about a peace deal, but said those efforts wouldn’t bear fruit immediately and Russia continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Ukraine.

“What we need is to keep our eyes on the ball of Ukraine. Let’s not drop that ball,” Rutte said.

Trump wants to spotlight his proposed "Board of Peace" at Davos on Thursday, looking to create momentum for a project that has been overshadowed this week by Greenland.

The new board initially was envisioned as a small group of world leaders overseeing the Gaza ceasefire, but has morphed into something far more ambitious. Skepticism about its membership and mandate has led some traditional U.S. allies to take a pass so far.

Trump expressed confidence in his idea ahead of what the White House said would be a “charter announcement” on the sidelines of the forum in the Swiss Alps.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Thursday that her country can’t negotiate on its sovereignty.

She has been “informed that this has not been the case” following the announcement of a new framework with NATO on Arctic security without the U.S. using force to take over Greenland.

In a statement, the Danish leader said security in the Arctic is a matter for all of NATO and “good and natural” that it be discussed between the U.S. president and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Frederiksen said she has spoken with Rutte “on an ongoing basis,” including before and after he met Trump in Davos.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff says Trump is considering ideas like a “tariff-free zone” for Ukraine that could help industry develop in the war-torn country.

“The president has talked about a tariff free zone from Ukraine that I think would be game changing,” Witkoff told the Ukraine breakfast on the sidelines of Davos.

Witkoff made the comments before heading later Thursday to Moscow, where the administration has been working to wrest a peace deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Witkoff said he would travel next to Abu Dhabi, where there would be working groups on issues like “military-to-military” and “prosperity” discussions.

Europe is breathing a sigh of relief Thursday following a dramatic reversal by U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland the day before at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he scrapped the tariffs that he threatened to impose on eight European nations to press for U.S. control over Greenland.

Trump said there is a new framework with NATO on Arctic security without the U.S. using force to take over Greenland. Still, there were many unanswered questions about what this Greenland deal means.

The Associated Press was inside an event Thursday morning billed as a breakfast discussing the war in Ukraine and featuring NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

AP World Economic Forum: https://apnews.com/hub/world-economic-forum

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speaks during a meeting with President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio walks down stairs after a meeting during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

President Donald Trump, center right, meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, center left, during a meeting on the sidelines of the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump, right, meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a meeting on the sidelines of the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump reacts after a meeting during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)