Business expectations for the first quarter of 2026
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 23) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the first quarter (Q1) of 2026.
The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD), Photo source: reference image
Business Situation
For all surveyed sectors taken together, the proportion of respondents expecting their business situation to be better (11%) in Q1 2026 over the preceding quarter is lower than that expecting it to be worse (14%).
When compared with the results of the Q4 2025 survey round, the proportion of respondents expecting a better business situation in Q1 2026 is 11%, slightly lower than the corresponding proportion in Q4 2025 (13%). At the same time, the proportion of respondents expecting a worse business situation had slightly decreased from 15% in Q4 2025 to 14% in Q1 2026.
Analysed by sector, respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their business situation to decrease on balance or remain broadly unchanged in Q1 2026 as compared with Q4 2025. In particular, significantly more respondents in the construction and accommodation and food services sectors expect their business situation to be worse in Q1 2026 as compared with Q4 2025. On the other hand, in the financing and insurance sector, significantly more respondents expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse.
The results of the survey should be interpreted with care. In this type of survey on expectations, the views collected in the survey are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration, and it is difficult to establish precisely the extent to which respondents' perception of the future accords with the underlying trends. The enumeration period for this survey round was from December 1, 2025 to January 9, 2026.
Volume of Business/Output
Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their volume of business/output to decrease on balance or remain broadly unchanged in Q1 2026 as compared with Q4 2025. In particular, significantly more respondents in the accommodation and food services and construction sectors expect their volume of business/construction output to decrease in Q1 2026 over Q4 2025. On the contrary, in the financing and insurance sector, more respondents expect their volume of business to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Employment
Respondents in half of the surveyed sectors expect their employment to remain broadly unchanged in Q1 2026 as compared with Q4 2025. However, significantly more respondents in the construction sector expect their employment to decrease in Q1 2026 over Q4 2025. On the contrary, in the manufacturing and real estate sectors, more respondents expect their employment to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease.
Selling Price/Service Charge
Respondents in most of the surveyed sectors expect their selling prices/service charges to remain broadly unchanged in Q1 2026 as compared with Q4 2025. However, more respondents in the construction sector expect their tender prices to go down in Q1 2026 over Q4 2025.
Commentary
A Government spokesman said that the overall near-term business outlook among large enterprises was largely stable for the first quarter of 2026, while the overall hiring appetite showed some slight easing.
Looking forward, the spokesman said that the continued positive momentum of the Hong Kong economy will support local business sentiment. Meanwhile, the Government will stay vigilant to the various uncertainties in the external environment.
Further Information
The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 570 prominent companies in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy.
The survey covers 10 major sectors in Hong Kong, namely manufacturing; construction; import/export trade and wholesale; retail; accommodation and food services (mainly covering services rendered by hotels and restaurants); transportation, storage and courier services; information and communications; financing and insurance; real estate; and professional and business services sectors.
Views collected in the survey refer only to those of respondents on their own companies rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in, and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (e.g. "up", "same" or "down") but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question is subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.
Survey results are generally presented as "net balance", i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing "up" and that choosing "down". The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. "up", "same" and "down") reflects how varied their business expectations are. The "net balance", with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign indicates a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the "net balance" reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.
Furthermore, owing to sample size constraint, care should be taken in interpreting survey results involving a small percentage (e.g. less than 10%) of respondents in individual sectors.
Chart 1 shows the views on expected changes in business situation for the period Q1 2025 to Q1 2026.
Table 1 shows the net balances of views on expectations in respect of different variables for Q1 2026.
The survey results are published in greater detail in the "Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, Q1 2026". Users can browse and download the publication at the website of the C&SD (www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/EIndexbySubject.html?pcode=B1110008&scode=300).
Users who have enquiries about the survey results may contact the Business Expectation Statistics Section of the C&SD (Tel: 3903 7263; E-mail: business-prospects@censtatd.gov.hk).
