Pushing for trade, preparing for war: A document reveals Vietnam's dual approach toward the US

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — A year after Vietnam elevated its relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American “war of aggression" and considered the United States a “belligerent” power, according to a report released Tuesday.

More than just exposing Hanoi's duality in approach toward the U.S., the document confirms a deep-seated fear of external forces fomenting an uprising against the Communist leadership in a so-called “color revolution,” like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines.

Other internal documents that The 88 Project, a human rights organization focused on human rights abuses in Vietnam, cited in its analysis point to similar concerns over U.S. motives in Vietnam.

“There's a consensus here across the government and across different ministries,” said Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project and the report’s author. “This isn't just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government.”

The original Vietnamese document titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan” was completed by the Ministry of Defense in August 2024. It suggests that in seeking “its objective of strengthening deterrence against China, the U.S. and its allies are ready to apply unconventional forms of warfare and military intervention and even conduct large-scale invasions against countries and territories that ‘deviate from its orbit.’”

While noting that “currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam,” the Vietnamese planners write that “due to the U.S.'s belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the U.S. and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.”

The Vietnamese military analysts outline what they see as a progression over three American administrations — from Barack Obama, through Donald Trump's first term, and into Joe Biden's presidency — with Washington increasingly pursuing military and other relationships with Asian nations to “form a front against China.”

In his term, Biden in 2023 signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with Vietnam, elevating relations between the nations to their highest diplomatic level on par with Russia and China as “trusted partners with a friendship grounded in mutual respect.”

In the 2024 military document, however, Vietnamese planners said that while the U.S. views Vietnam as “a partner and an important link,” it also wants to “spread and impose its values regarding freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion” to gradually change the country’s socialist government.

“The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan provides one of the most clear-eyed insights yet into Vietnam's foreign policy,” Swanton wrote in his analysis. “It shows that far from viewing the U.S. as a strategic partner, Hanoi sees Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its anti-China alliance. ”

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry did not answer emails seeking comment on The 88 Project report or the document it highlighted.

The U.S. State Department refused to comment directly on the “2nd U.S. Invasion Plan," but stressed the new partnership agreement, saying it “promotes prosperity and security for the United States and Vietnam.”

“A strong, prosperous, independent and resilient Vietnam benefits our two countries and helps ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains stable, secure, free and open,” the State Department said.

Nguyen Khac Giang, of Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute research center, said the plans highlighted tensions within Vietnam's political leadership, where the Communist Party’s conservative, military-aligned faction has long been preoccupied with external threats to the regime.

“The military has never been too comfortable moving ahead with the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States,” Giang said.

Tensions within the government spilled into the public realm in June 2024, when U.S.-linked Fulbright University was accused of fomenting a “color revolution” by an army TV report. The Foreign Ministry defended the university, which U.S. and Vietnamese officials had highlighted when the two countries upgraded ties.

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, said the Vietnamese military still has “a very long memory” of the war with the U.S. that ended in 1975. While Western diplomats have tended to see Hanoi as most concerned by possible Chinese aggression, the document reinforces other policy papers suggesting leaders' biggest fear is that of a “color revolution,” he said.

Further undermining trust between the U.S. and Vietnam were cuts made to the U.S. Agency for International Development by President Donald Trump's administration, which disrupted projects such as efforts to clean up tons of soil contaminated with deadly dioxin from the military’s Agent Orange defoliant and unexploded American munitions and land mines.

“This pervasive insecurity about color revolutions is very frustrating, because I don't see why the Communist Party is so insecure,” said Abuza, whose book “The Vietnam People’s Army: From People’s Warfare to Military Modernization?” was published last year.

“They have so much to be proud of — they have lifted so many people out of poverty, the economy is humming along, they are the darling of foreign investors.”

While China and Vietnam have been at odds over territorial claims in the South China Sea, the documents portray China more as a regional rival than a threat like the U.S.

“China doesn't pose an existential threat to the Communist Party (of Vietnam),” Abuza said. “Indeed, the Chinese know they can only push the Vietnamese so far, because they're fearful that the Communist Party can't respond forcefully to China (and will) look weak and it will cause a mass uprising.”

China is Vietnam's largest two-way trade partner, while the U.S. is its largest export market, meaning Hanoi needs to perform a balancing act in keeping up diplomatic and economic ties, while also hedging its bets.

“Even some of the more progressive leaders look at the United States, saying, 'Yes, they like us, they're working with us, they are good partners for now, but given the opportunity if there were a color revolution, the Americans would support it,'” Abuza said.

Under Vietnamese leader To Lam, who became Communist Party general secretary at around the same time the document was written, the country has moved to strengthen ties with the U.S., especially under Trump, Giang said.

Lam was reappointed general secretary last month and is expected to also assume the presidency, which would make him the country’s most powerful figure in decades.

With Lam at the helm, Trump’s family business has broken ground on a $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf resort and luxury real estate project in northern Hung Yen province. The Vietnamese leader almost immediately accepted Trump's invitation to join the Board of Peace, which Giang said was an unusually swift decision given that foreign policy moves are typically calibrated with close attention to Beijing’s possible reaction.

But Trump’s military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro have given Vietnamese conservatives fresh justification for their unease about closer ties with Washington. Any U.S. military action involving Hanoi's ally Cuba could upset Vietnam’s strategic balance, Giang added.

“Cuba is very sensitive,” he said. “If something happens in Cuba, it will send shock waves through Vietnam’s political elites. Many of them have very strong, intimate ties with Cuba.”

Overall, the first year of Trump’s second term is likely to have left the Vietnamese happy about the focus on the Western Hemisphere but wondering about other developments, Abuza said.

“The Vietnamese are going to be confused by the Trump administration, which has downplayed human rights and democracy promotion, but at the same time been willing to violate the sovereignty of states and remove leaders they don’t like,” he said.

Rising reported from Bangkok.

FILE - Vietnam's Communist Party General Secretary To Lam, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping wave during a meeting at the Office of the Party Central Committee in Hanoi, Vietnam, April 14, 2025. (Nhac Nguyen/Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - A U.S. Marine honor guard member holds the Vietnamese flag during an honor cordon at the Pentagon to welcome Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phan Van Giang, Sept. 9, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Kevin Wolf, File)

FILE - U.S. President Joe Biden raises a toast as he participates in a State Luncheon with Vietnam President Vo Van Thuong in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Sept. 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, left, and General Secretary of Vietnam's Communist Party To Lam talk during a meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, Nov. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Hau Dinh, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump implored the House on Monday to end the partial government shutdown, but neither Republicans nor Democrats appeared ready to quickly approve the federal funding package he brokered with the Senate without first debating their own demands over immigration enforcement operations.

Democrats are refusing to provide the votes House Speaker Mike Johnson needs to push the package forward as they try to rein in the Trump administration's deportation operations after the shooting deaths of two Americans in Minneapolis. That's forcing Johnson to rely on his slim GOP majority, which has its own complaints about the package, to fall in line behind Trump's deal with Senate Democrats.

Voting is expected to begin as soon as Tuesday, which would be day four of the partial shutdown. The Pentagon, Homeland Security and other agencies saw their funding lapse Saturday. And while many operations at those departments are deemed essential, and still functioning, some workers may go without pay or be furloughed.

“We need to get the Government open, and I hope all Republicans and Democrats will join me in supporting this Bill, and send it to my desk WITHOUT DELAY,” the president wrote on social media.

“There can be NO CHANGES at this time," Trump insisted. "We will work together in good faith to address the issues that have been raised, but we cannot have another long, pointless, and destructive Shutdown.”

The stalemate points to difficult days ahead as Johnson relies on Trump to help muscle the package to passage.

The president struck a deal last week with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer in which Homeland Security would only be funded temporarily, though Feb. 13, as Congress debates changes to immigration enforcement operations. The Senate overwhelmingly approved the package with the rest of the government funding ahead of Saturday's deadline.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries made it clear Monday that his side sees no reason to help Johnson push the bill forward in a procedural step, something that the majority party typically handles on its own.

With Johnson facing unrest from his own Republican ranks, Jeffries is seizing the leverage it provides Democrats to demand changes to immigration operations.

“On rare occasions have we stepped in to deal with Republican dysfunction,” Jeffries said at the Capitol.

Democrats are demanding restraints on Immigration and Customs Enforcement that go beyond $20 million for body cameras that already is in the bill. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced Monday that officers on the ground in Minneapolis, including ICE, will be immediately issued body-worn cameras, and the program would be expanded nationwide as funding is available.

But Democrats are pressing for more. They want to require that federal immigration agents unmask — noting that few, if any, other law enforcement agencies routinely mask themselves in the U.S. — and they want officers to rely on judicial, rather than administrative, warrants in their operations.

They also want an end to roving patrols, amid other changes.

Jeffries said the administration needs to begin negotiations now, not over the next two weeks, on changes to immigration enforcement operations.

Certain Democrats, however, are splintering with the leader, and pushing for quicker passage of the funding package to avoid government disruptions.

At the same time, House Republicans, with some allies in the Senate, are making their own demands, as they work to support Trump's clampdown on immigrants in the U.S.

The House Freedom Caucus has insisted on fuller funding for Homeland Security while certain Republicans pushed to include the SAVE Act, a longshot Trump priority that would require proof of citizenship before Americans are eligible to participate in elections and vote. Critics say it would disenfranchise millions of voters.

Late Monday, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., dropped her demand to attach the voting bill to the funding package after she and Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., met with Trump at the White House. She posted afterward that it would be better to try to advance that bill separately through the Senate, and keep the government open.

The development was seen as helping Johnson push ahead.

“Obviously the president really wants this,” Majority Leader Steve Scalise said at the Capitol.

“We always work 'til the midnight hour to get the votes," Scalise said. "You never start the process with everybody on board. You work through it."

Meanwhile, a number of federal agencies are snared in the funding standoff after the government went into a partial shutdown over the weekend.

Defense, health, transportation and housing are among those that were given shutdown guidance by the administration, though many operations are deemed essential and services are not necessarily interrupted. Workers could go without pay if the impasse drags on. Some could be furloughed.

Lawmakers from both parties are increasingly concerned the closure will disrupt the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which they rely on to help constituents after deadly snowstorms and other disasters.

This is the second time in a matter of months that federal government operations have been disrupted as lawmakers use the annual funding process as leverage to extract policy changes. Last fall, Democrats sparked what became the longest federal shutdown in history, 43 days, as they protested the expiration of health insurance tax breaks.

That shutdown ended with a promise to vote on proposals to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. But with GOP opposition, Democrats were unable to achieve their goal of keeping the subsidies in place. Insurance premiums spiked in the new year for millions of people.

Trump is already working on an immigration deal to ensure the shutdown doesn't drag on.

Johnson said he was in the Oval Office last week when Trump, along with border czar Tom Homan, spoke with Schumer of New York as they discussed the immigration changes.

Body cameras, which are already provided for in the package, and an end to the roving patrols by immigration agents are areas of potential agreement, Johnson said.

But Johnson drew a line at other Democratic demands. He said he does not think that requiring immigration officers to remove their masks would have support from Republicans because it could lead to problems if their personal images and private information is posted online by protesters.

And Senate Majority Leader John Thune tapped the brakes on the demand from Democrats to require judicial warrants for officers' searches, saying it's likely to be a part of the negotiations ahead.

“It’s going to be very difficult to reach agreement in two weeks,” Thune said at the Capitol.

Democrats, however, said the immigration operations are out of control, and must end in Minneapolis and other cities.

Growing numbers of lawmakers are also calling for Noem to be fired or impeached.

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Associated Press writers Kevin Freking, Matt Brown and Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.

House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, R-Okla., prepares to speak before the House Rules Committee as the panel meets to advance a federal funding package and prevent a prolonged partial government shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Chairwoman Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., brings the House Rules Committee to order as they meet to advance a federal funding package and prevent a prolonged partial government shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., speaks during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., walks through the House Rules Committee hearing room to meet with Republicans on the panel as they try to advance a federal funding package and prevent a prolonged partial government shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

The U.S. Capitol is photographed Friday, Jan. 30, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026, in Palm Beach, Fla., as he arrives to attend the wedding of White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino and Erin Elmore, the director of Art in Embassies at the U.S. Department of State. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks to members of the media at the U.S. Capitol, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Allison Robbert)