How Keir Starmer could be replaced as UK leader if Epstein fallout brings him down

LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a battle to stay in post as he comes under heavy criticism for his decision in 2024 to appoint veteran politician Peter Mandelson as the British ambassador to the U.S. despite the latter's ties to late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Starmer’s judgment is in the spotlight like never before after the recent release of millions of pages of Epstein-related documents by the U.S. Justice Department showed how close Mandelson and Epstein were.

There’s widespread anger that the prime minister appointed Mandelson, long a key figure of Starmer's own Labour Party, to such a sensitive and high-profile post.

Starmer fired Mandelson in September after an earlier batch of emails was published showing he remained friends with Epstein after the late financier’s 2008 conviction for sex offenses involving a minor.

But the newly released emails show that Mandelson also passed on sensitive — and potentially market-moving — government information to the disgraced financier in 2009, when he was a member of the Labour Cabinet.

Starmer’s leadership has now been called into question, and several Labour lawmakers have called for him to quit. His chief of staff resigned on Sunday, taking the blame for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, and his communications director quit on Monday.

Many believe that is not enough to keep Starmer in the job.

The prime minister is trying to persuade his party members to back him. He has apologized to the British public and to the victims of Epstein’s sex trafficking for believing what he has termed “Mandelson’s lies.”

There are a number of ways in which Starmer could go, some more straightforward than others.

The simplest option is that Starmer announces his intention to resign, triggering an election for the Labour leadership. A resignation could possibly come if a delegation of Cabinet members tell Starmer he has lost too much support within the party or if members of his government quit in protest.

Those considered to harbor leadership ambitions include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and former deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, who had to resign last year after admitting she didn’t pay enough tax on a house purchase. An investigation into that is ongoing.

But there's no clear front-runner.

Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Manchester who was blocked from standing at a special election in the city later this month, would not be eligible because by longstanding convention the prime minister must be a member of Parliament.

Whoever does run, the election would likely take weeks, with Starmer likely staying in post until that concludes.

If Starmer decides to resign immediately, the Cabinet and Labour’s governing body would likely pick an interim leader to be prime minister, probably someone not standing to be Labour leader. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy could fit the bill.

Under Labour’s rules, candidates must have the support of a fifth of party lawmakers — about 80.

The wider party membership would then vote to choose a winner.

King Charles III would invite the winner to become prime minister and form a government.

If Starmer does not resign, he could face a challenge, potentially from within his Cabinet.

Unlike the Conservative Party, which has a history of getting rid of leaders such as Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Boris Johnson in 2022, Labour does not have that muscle memory. No Labour prime minister has ever been dislodged, though Tony Blair announced his plan to resign in 2007 after a series of low-level resignations.

Challengers would have to meet the eligibility thresholds above, but Starmer would automatically be on the ballot.

Starmer faces a series of hurdles in the weeks ahead. The first will probably be when files related to the vetting of Mandelson are published. Starmer will be hoping they show the scale of Mandelson’s lies. Should they not, that could be a point of high jeopardy for the prime minister.

Another potential pitfall could be the special election in Gorton and Denton on Feb. 26, traditionally a safe Labour seat. However, this time it will be a tough fight, with challenges from the anti-immigration Reform U.K. on the right and the Greens on the left.

After that comes a raft of elections in May. Many in Labour fear the party could lose power in Wales for the first time since the legislature was created in 1999, fall way short in Scotland and get battered in local elections in England.

It's clear that Starmer faces a difficult landscape.

And that’s barring surprise developments that could further rock his premiership.

“Events, dear boy, events,” Harold Macmillan, prime minister between 1957 and 1963, said when asked what the greatest challenges for leaders were.

FILE - President Donald Trump, left, gets a reaction from Britian's ambassador to the United States Peter Mandelson, right, as they take questions from members of the media after announcing a trade deal between U.S. and U.K. in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, May 8, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, file)

FILE - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, right, talks with Britain's ambassador to the United States Peter Mandelson during a welcome reception at the ambassador's residence on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025 in Washington. (Carl Court/Pool Photo via AP, file)

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivers a speech at Horntye Park Sports Complex in St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex, England, Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026. (Peter Nicholls/Pool Photo via AP)

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer adjusts his glasses as he waits to deliver his speech at Horntye Park Sports Complex in St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex, England, Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026. (Peter Nicholls/Pool Photo via AP)

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks with members of the audience after delivering a speech at Horntye Park Sports Complex in St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex, England, Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026. (Peter Nicholls/Pool Photo via AP)

Voters in Kazakhstan headed to the polls Sunday for a referendum on a new constitution that would strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power in Central Asia’s largest country.

The proposal merges the Kazakhstani parliament’s two chambers into one and gives the president the right to appoint key government officials, including the restoration of the ​post of vice-president.

“The transition to a single-chamber parliament will not necessarily strengthen democracy, especially as the proposed amendments broadly expand presidential powers,” Mario Bikarski, Senior Eastern Europe and Central Asia Analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told The Associated Press. “There is growing public demand for greater political accountability and justice, which these reforms are unlikely to address.”

If the constitutional changes pass, a new body, the People’s Council, will be created alongside parliament, empowered to initiate legislation and initiate referendums. Its members will be appointed entirely by the president.

This second constitutional change in four years was initiated by Tokayev. Analysts say it could pave the way for him to retain power after his term expires.

The 72-year-old Tokayev, a former Soviet official and Kazakhstani diplomat who previously served at the U.N., is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029. Analysts believe Tokayev could use the referendum to reset presidential term limits.

“If the transition of power doesn’t go as Tokayev would like ... then he will be able to say that with the adoption of the new Constitution, we have reset presidential term limits,” analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told The Associated Press. “The new constitution could provide Tokayev with a loophole for reelection to another term.”

Leaders of several former Soviet republics, including Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have previously used new or amended constitutions to revise statutory term limits.

The proposed new constitution also stipulates that marriage will no longer be a union of two people, but rather a union of a man and a woman. Analysts say this provision was introduced in the new constitution as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.

“What we previously saw in the Russian Constitution has migrated to the Kazakhstani one. This trend toward visible and ostentatious ‘traditionalism’ demonstrates a certain bias toward which the Kazakhstani political regime will likely drift in the future,” Umarov said.

Tokayev, who has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West since the imposition of sanctions against Russia, explains the constitutional changes as a response to the need to make quick decisions in a rapidly changing world.

“This step is of exceptional importance, especially in the current period, when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible,” Tokayev said at a forum in Astana on Thursday.

The opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in government structures and, in the month since the referendum was announced, has failed, or “simply hasn’t had time,” to significantly influence public sentiment, analysts say.

“There’s no formally formed opposition in Kazakhstan,” said analyst Umarov. “There are opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists. They’re trying to demonstrate their discontent in some way, trying to hold various protests, calling for voting in a certain way.”

The vote is taking place at a difficult time for Kazakhstan, where inflation reached 11.7% in February and tax increases have fueled public discontent.

Analysts say economic problems could trigger a new wave of protests akin to nationwide unrest in 2022, triggered by hikes in fuel prices, in which dozens of protesters and police were killed — something Tokayev is trying to contain by consolidating power in his own hands.

“Preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a key priority for Tokayev,” said Bikarski. “Kazakhstan is the highest-risk Central Asian country on our predictive Civil Unrest Index, reflecting the increased incidence of industrial action, particularly in oil-producing regions.”

Karmanau reported from Tallinn, Estonia, and Morton reported from Thessaloniki, Greece.

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

A man poses for a photo as he casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (AP Photo)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev walks to cast his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, a woman casts her ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

FILE - Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addresses the plenary session of the Russia–Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum in Uralsk, Kazakhstan, via videoconference during a meeting with Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)