Prediction markets love sports, but the feeling isn't exactly mutual

CHICAGO (AP) — Sports have become a big part of prediction markets. So big that even sportsbooks have moved into the business.

The rapid growth of sports offerings on prediction markets — called event contracts — has captured the attention of the four major North American sports, along with the NCAA and other organizations. Kalshi and Polymarket are the two biggest platforms, but they have plenty of company. More are on the way, too.

Some leagues have jumped on another revenue opportunity, while others have expressed concern about the regulation of prediction markets. But the money keeps rolling in. Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in total trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday, an increase of more than 2,700% compared to last year.

Almost eight years after a Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for legalized sports gambling across the country, the rise of prediction markets in sports has received a mixed response.

“I think (teams and leagues) had to some extent a seat at the table in terms of how states were going to legalize sport betting,” said Stephen Shapiro, a sports and entertainment management professor at the University of South Carolina, "how they’re going to be regulated, who is going to able to get licensed to bet.

“I think they have much less of a feeling or understanding towards prediction markets.”

Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade — or wager — on the result of future events. They rose to prominence in politics, but the array of typically yes-or-no questions includes everything from the weather to the Oscar for best picture.

When the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro last month, an anonymous trader made more than $400,000 after betting that Maduro would soon be out of office — raising suspicions of potential insider trading because of the timing of the wagers and the trader’s narrow activity on Polymarket.

Cardi B's appearance during Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show, specifically whether it constituted a performance, turned into a headache for both Polymarket and Kalshi.

Prediction markets are comprised of event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring. The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen. This differs from legal sportsbooks, which set odds and pay out the winners themselves.

Matthew Bakowicz, a former sportsbook executive who serves as the program director of the sports business management track at American University, said it works like the options market.

“You have found a partner on the other side that is willing to trade you that contract or that offer. They are a market maker," Bakowicz said. "They’ve said I will trade you those 100 contracts at 70 cents just like a brokerage house. ... It’s a person-to-person kind of environment which is a little bit different than the standard sports bet that you would see."

Prediction markets are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while sports gambling falls under the jurisdiction of state governments. According to the American Gaming Association, a trade group that represents casinos and sportsbooks, 39 states and the District of Columbia have at least some form of legalized sports betting.

In most states with legal sports gambling, it is limited to ages 21 and older, while prediction markets are open for 18- to 20-year-olds with some exceptions. Prediction markets also have a presence in states where sports betting is illegal, including Texas and California.

There are multiple active court cases involving issues such as state law versus federal oversight and the definition of the word “gaming.” At stake is how prediction markets are regulated and where they are allowed to operate.

The situation is expected to make its way to the Supreme Court at some point.

“The way that these prediction market companies have differentiated sports betting from prediction markets is by casting themselves as an exchange that hosts a peer-to-peer platform whereas sports betting traditionally is conducted in a house-banked system of wagering, where the gambling company is on the other side of the wager,” said Daniel Wallach, a prominent sports gaming attorney.

“But that's a distinction without a difference here, because I think it’s commonly recognized within the gambling world that exchange wagering is one way in which gambling can occur.”

Kalshi has argued in court that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over its sports event contracts because the agency is responsible for regulating derivative markets under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC has a regulation that prohibits an event contract “that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any state or federal law,” but Kalshi has asserted it's up to the federal agency to enforce its regulations.

“A focal point of this entire thing, it is one word and is the word gaming and it is how this organization, you know, the CFTC defines it,” Bakowicz said.

Major sports organizations have responded to the growing popularity of prediction markets in a variety of ways.

The NHL announced multiyear partnership agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket in October. Under the deal, the league has the right to reject specific event contracts, and Kalshi and Polymarket agreed to integrity provisions similar to the NHL's approved sportsbooks.

The Chicago Blackhawks announced a deal with Kalshi in December, becoming the first professional sports franchise to partner with a prediction market.

Bill Miller, the president and CEO of the AGA, called the NHL's partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket “deeply troubling.” The AGA has accused prediction market platforms of using sports event contracts “to evade state regulations and ignore the voice of voters and elected leaders at the state level.”

Major League Soccer announced a partnership with Polymarket on Jan. 26. The deal “includes safeguards designed to protect the integrity of MLS and Leagues Cup matches,” according to the league.

The NFL, NBA and Major League Baseball have expressed concern about the regulation of sports event contracts. But there has been some movement on multiple fronts.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the NBA’s biggest stars, has become a shareholder in Kalshi. The league had a panel on prediction markets on the schedule for its All-Star technology summit on Friday in Los Angeles.

The NBA has not responded to repeated requests for comment on Antetokounmpo's deal.

MLB had a presentation on prediction markets during its owners' meetings this week in Florida.

“The interesting thing about the prediction markets is there’s an opportunity to work with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said. “If you got where you wanted to be, you’d have a nice federal regulation to be the same everywhere.”

In written testimony submitted to the House Committee on Agriculture in December, NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller said the league has no plans to participate in prediction markets.

The NCAA has asked the CFTC to pause event contracts for college sports “until the agency implements appropriate regulations,” it said in a Jan. 14 release.

“The answer cannot be the status quo. We need one set of fair, transparent standards,” NCAA President Charlie Baker said.

AP sports: https://apnews.com/sports

FILE - The Polymarket prediction market website is displayed on a computer screen, Jan. 11, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Wyatte Grantham-Philips, File)

FILE - Advertisements by the American company Polymarket predict a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election, Nov. 4, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Olga Fedorova, File)

FILE - Rob Manfred, commissioner of Major League Baseball, answers questions during a news conference at the MLB winter meetings, Dec. 8, 2025, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux, File)

FILE - Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo warms up before an NBA basketball game against the Golden State Warriors in San Francisco, Jan. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — A new crew rocketed toward the International Space Station on Friday to replace the astronauts who returned to Earth early in NASA's first medical evacuation.

SpaceX launched the replacements as soon as possible at NASA’s request, sending the U.S., French and Russian astronauts on an expected eight- to nine-month mission stretching until fall. The four should arrive at the orbiting lab on Saturday, filling the vacancies left by their evacuated colleagues last month and bringing the space station back to full staff.

“It turns out Friday the 13th is a very lucky day,” SpaceX Launch Control radioed once the astronauts reached orbit. “That was quite a ride,” replied the crew's commander, Jessica Meir.

NASA had to put spacewalks on hold and deferred other duties while awaiting the arrival of NASA’s Meir and Jack Hathaway, France’s Sophie Adenot and Russia’s Andrei Fedyaev. They'll join three other astronauts — one American and two Russians — who kept the space station running the past month.

Satisfied with medical procedures already in place, NASA ordered no extra checkups for the crew ahead of liftoff and no new diagnostic equipment was packed. An ultrasound machine already up there for research went into overdrive on Jan. 7 when used on the ailing crew member. NASA has not revealed the ill astronaut’s identity or health issue. All four returning astronauts went straight to the hospital after splashing down in the Pacific near San Diego.

It was the first time in 65 years of human spaceflight that NASA cut short a mission for medical reasons.

With missions becoming longer, NASA is constantly looking at upgrades to the space station’s medical gear, said deputy program manager Dina Contella. “But there are a lot of things that are just not practical and so that’s when you need to bring astronauts home from space,” she said earlier this week.

In preparation for moon and Mars trips where health care will be even more challenging, the new arrivals will test a filter designed to turn drinking water into emergency IV fluid, try out an ultrasound system that relies on artificial intelligence and augmented reality instead of experts on the ground, and perform ultrasound scans on their jugular veins in a blood clot study.

They also will demonstrate their moon-landing skills in a simulated test.

Adenot is only the second French woman to launch to space. She was 14 when Claudie Haignere flew to Russia’s space station Mir in 1996, inspiring her to become an astronaut. Haignere traveled to Cape Canaveral to cheer her on.

Hathaway, like Adenot, is new to space, while Meir and Fedyaev are making their second station trip. Just before liftoff, Fedyaev led the crew in a cry of “Poyekhali" — Russian for “Let's Go” — the word uttered at liftoff by the world's first person in space, the Soviet Union's Yuri Gagarin, in 1961.

On her first mission in 2019, Meir took part in the first all-female spacewalk. The other half of that spacewalk, Christina Koch, is among the four Artemis II astronauts waiting to fly around the moon as early as March. A ship-to-ship radio linkup is planned between the two crews.

Meir wasn’t sure astronauts would return to the moon during her career. “Now we’re right here on the precipice of the Artemis II mission,” she said ahead of liftoff. “The fact that they will be in space at the same time as us … it’s so cool to be an astronaut now, it’s so exciting.”

SpaceX launched the latest crew from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Elon Musk’s company is preparing its neighboring Kennedy Space Center launch pad for the super-sized Starships, which NASA needs to land astronauts on the moon.

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with a crew of four aboard the Dragon space craft lifts off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Friday, Feb. 13, 2026 . (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Crew 12 mission Commander Jessica Meir, left, and ESA astronaut Sophia Adenot, of France, wave as they leave the Operations and Checkout building before heading to pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, on a mission to the International Space Station. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with a crew of four aboard the Dragon space craft lifts off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Friday, Feb. 13, 2026. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with a crew of four aboard the Dragon space craft lifts off from pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Friday, Feb. 13, 2026 . (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Crew 12 ESA astronaut Sophia Adenot, of France, leaves the Operations and Checkout building before heading to pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, on a mission to the International Space Station. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Crew 12 mission astronauts, from left, pilot Jack Hathaway, Russian cosmonaut Andrei Fedyaev, commander Jessica Meir and ESA astronaut Sophia Adenot, of France, leave the Operations and Checkout building before heading to pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, on a mission to the International Space Station. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with a Dragon spacecraft stands ready for launch on pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026 . (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Crew 12 astronauts, from left, pilot Jack Hathaway, Russian cosmonaut Andrei Fedyaev, commander Jessica Meir and ESA astronaut Sophia Adenot, of France, leave the Operations and Checkout building before heading to pad 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, on a mission to the International Space Station. (AP Photo/John Raoux)