Claims of 'rediscovered' Michelangelos unsettle Renaissance experts

ROME (AP) — An independent researcher claimed on Wednesday that a marble bust of Christ in a Roman church is by Michelangelo, the latest purported attribution to the Renaissance genius who is one of the most imitated artists in the world.

The unverified claim by Valentina Salerno has unsettled Renaissance scholars, especially since a recent sketch of a foot that was attributed to Michelangelo — but disputed by some as a copy — recently fetched $27.2 million at a Christie’s auction.

Given the stakes — and Salerno’s suggestion that several other works can now be attributed to Michelangelo based on her documentary research — leading experts have declined to comment.

Salerno has published her theory on the commercial website academia.edu, a non-peer reviewed social networking site academics use, and announced the first “rediscovery” at a press conference Wednesday.

The claims have drawn perhaps more attention than they normally would, given the Vatican seemed at least initially interested. Friday marks the 550th anniversary of Michelangelo’s birth and there are a number of exhibits, conferences and commemorations that are reviving attention about his genius and legacy.

The culture ministry was invited to participate in Salerno's press conference and didn’t, said the abate of the order that runs the church, the Rev. Franco Bergamin, while the Carabinieri’s art squad refused to weigh in on the authenticity of the statue, but said it was being protected and a laminated sign now graces the sculpture: “Alarm armed” it reads.

“We hope that this asset, which belongs to our cultural heritage regardless of whether it can be attributed to Michelangelo Buonarroti or not, is part of the national heritage that we are responsible for defending,” said Lt. Col. Paolo Salvatori.

Michelangelo Buonarroti, who lived from 1475-1564, created some of the most spectacular works of the Renaissance: the imposing statues of David in Florence and Pieta in St. Peter's Basilica, the Sistine Chapel ceiling and “The Last Judgment” fresco behind the chapel's altar. Salerno now says she has located another — a bust of Christ in the Basilica of Sant’Agnese fuori le mura, listed by Italy’s culture ministry as anonymous from the Roman school of the 16th century.

She is not the first to claim it. In 1996, Michelangelo expert William Wallace wrote an article in ArtNews about the well-documented history of wrongly attributing works to Michelangelo. It quoted the 19th century French writer Stendhal as writing that at the Sant'Agnese church, “we noticed a head of the savior which I should swear is by Michelangelo.”

“Stendhal’s vow notwithstanding, the head has never been taken seriously, and nowadays would not even appear in a catalog raisonné under 'rejected attributions,'" Wallace wrote.

Salerno suggests that several documents in the first few hundred years after Michelangelo's death correctly attribute the work to the artist but that in 1984 a scholar debunked it, erroneously in her view, and it has remained wrongly attributed ever since.

“I have provided and will continue to provide — I hope, because the research continues — a whole series of documentary evidence on this," she said. “There will be experts in the field who will conduct their own investigations. To date, we can say that, according to the documents, the object is attributed to Michelangelo.”

She suggested that the bust was modeled on Michelangelo’s intimate friend, Tomaso De’ Cavalieriis, and was part of the great artistic inheritance Michelangelo left to his friends and students when he died. Salerno said she came to the conclusion tracing wills, inventories and notarized documents held in church and state archives and the archives of Roman confraternities to which Michelangelo and his students belonged.

Salerno, an actress and fiction author, has no college degree or expertise in art history. She has said she fell into the research “by chance” when she set out to write a novel about Michelangelo 10 years ago.

According to her research published on academia.edu, Salerno uncovered evidence of a secret “pact of indissolubility” among some of Michelangelo’s students and their heirs to keep Michelangelo’s works after he died. The pact included the previously unknown existence of a chamber, whose locks could only be opened with three keys, held by three different students, she said.

Salerno’s research caught the eye of Cardinal Mauro Gambetti, who runs St. Peter’s Basilica. He named Salerno and her mentor to a scientific committee formed in 2025 to discuss a possible Vatican exhibition to commemorate the anniversary of Michelangelo’s birth.

Nothing has yet come of the committee’s work. But its members have downplayed the significance of Salerno’s work or refused to discuss it.

Some expressed surprise at her inclusion in a committee made up of some of the leading Renaissance and Michelangelo scholars in the world, including Barbara Jatta, director of the Vatican Museums, Hugo Chapman, curator of Italian and French drawings, from 1400-1800, at the British Museum, and Wallace, professor of art history at Washington University in St. Louis.

Jatta has distanced herself from the Vatican committee when contacted by The Associated Press.

The British Museum declined to make Chapman available for comment. Gambetti’s office did not respond to a request. Other committee members declined to comment.

Wallace told the AP that Salerno’s methodology was sound and noted that there is a strong tradition in Europe of noncredentialed researchers doing solid work. He said he agreed with her thesis that Michelangelo didn’t destroy his works in a fire, a commonly held belief at the time that has been debunked for years by scholars. Rather, he concurred with Salerno that Michelangelo entrusted what remained of his works in his final years to his students to finish his projects.

But he disputes Salerno’s conclusion that a huge treasure of Michelangelo’s was secreted away — and is therefore ripe for new discovery — saying Michelangelo simply wasn’t producing that much in the final years of his life. Michelangelo was overseeing six architectural projects in Rome at the time. What drawings he made were sketches to resolve technical problems on the worksite, and likely don’t survive because they were merely “working drawings,” he said.

Wallace concurred that existence of a secret chamber that can only be opened with three keys is new. But he said proper academic scholarship would call for Salerno to transcribe the documents and allow for a peer-review process to take place.

Italy is no stranger to claims of new discoveries about old artists, with fakes, frauds and new “discoveries” of Modiglianis and other artists a regular occurrence in art history circles.

“I think I counted up 45 attributions to Michelangelo since 2000, and not one of which you can remember or mention, but every single one arrived with the headline, ‘The greatest discovery of the time,’ (or) ‘It will change everything we think about Michelangelo,’” Wallace said. “And then five years later, we can’t even remember what it was.”

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

The sculpted bust inside the Basilica of Saint Agnes Outside the Walls, in Rome, Wednesday, March 4, 2026, which, in light of new studies by Italian researcher Valentina Salerno, may be reattributed to Michelangelo Buonarroti. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

Italian researcher Valentina Salerno speaks to journalists in Rome, Wednesday, March 4, 2026, as the sculpted bust held inside the Basilica of Saint Agnes Outside the Walls in light of new studies, may be reattributed to Michelangelo Buonarroti. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

Italian researcher Valentina Salerno poses for photographers near the sculpted bust held inside the Basilica of Saint Agnes Outside the Walls, in Rome, Italy, Wednesday, March 4, 2026, which, in light of new studies, may be reattributed to Michelangelo Buonarroti. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

Italian researcher Valentina Salerno poses for photographers near the sculpted bust held inside the Basilica of Saint Agnes Outside the Walls, in Rome, Italy, Wednesday, March 4, 2026, which, in light of new studies, may be reattributed to Michelangelo Buonarroti. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

The sculpted bust inside the Basilica of Saint Agnes Outside the Walls, in Rome, Wednesday, March 4, 2026, which, in light of new studies by Italian researcher Valentina Salerno, may be reattributed to Michelangelo Buonarroti. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The Iran war's disruption of Middle East oil and gas supplies and soaring prices are strengthening Russia's ability to profit from its energy exports, a pillar of the Kremlin's budget and a key to paying for its own war in Ukraine.

Prices for Russia's oil exports have risen from under $40 per barrel as recently as December to about $62 per barrel — first on fears of war and then due to interruption of almost all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for some 20% of the world's oil consumption.

Russian oil still trades at a considerable discount to international benchmark Brent crude, which has risen above $82 from the closing price of $72.87 on Friday, the eve of the attack on Iran by the U.S. and Israel. However, Russian crude is now above the benchmark of $59 per barrel that was assumed in the Russian Finance Ministry's budget plan for 2026. Oil and gas tax revenues account for up to 30% of the Russian federal budget.

Additionally, the halt in production of ship-borne liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by major supplier Qatar will sharply increase global competition for available cargoes -- including those from Russia.

Russia had seen state oil and gas revenue fall to a four-year low of 393 billion rubles ($5 billion) in January and the budget shortfall of 1.7 trillion rubles ($21.8 billion) for that month was the biggest on record, according to Finance Ministry figures.

The lower revenue was due to weaker global prices and to deep discounts fueled by U.S. and European Union hindrance of Russia's “shadow fleet” of tankers with obscure ownership used sell oil to its biggest customers, China and India, in defiance of a Western-imposed price cap and sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft.

Economic growth has stagnated as massive military spending has leveled off. President Vladimir Putin has resorted to tax increases and increased borrowing from compliant domestic banks to keep state finances on an even keel in the fifth year of the war.

“Russia is a big winner from the war-related energy turmoil,” said Simone Tagliapietra, energy expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. “Higher oil prices mean higher revenues for the government and therefore stronger capability to finance the war in Ukraine.”

Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights at data and analytics firm Kpler, writes: “With Middle East barrels facing logistical disruption, both India and China face strong incentives to deepen reliance on Russian supply.”

Additionally, the price of future delivery of natural gas has skyrocketed in Europe, raising questions about EU plans to put an end to imports of Russian LNG by 2027 -- reviving bad memories of a 2022 energy crunch after Moscow cut off most supplies of pipeline gas due to the war.

Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most ship traffic, said Alexandra Prokopenko, an expert on the Russian economy at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

A quick exit from the conflict would return Brent prices to roughly $65 per barrel and “a short-lived spike would not fundamentally change” Russia's budget picture, she said. A middle scenario in which some shipping resumes and oil stabilizes at around $80 per barrel would give Russia “some fiscal relief,” depending on how long the higher prices last.

A long-term closure with Iranian strikes damaging refineries and pipelines could send oil to $108 per barrel, accelerate inflation and push Europe to the edge of recession. “This scenario would bring the largest windfall to Russia,” she said.

Even several weeks of interruption in Gulf LNG could lead to calls in Europe to suspend plans to ban new Russian supply contracts after April 25, said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd consultancy.

“The EU is under even more pressure to work with the U.S. to find a solution to the Ukraine conflict and, very likely, to consider easing the plan for a total block for Russian oil and gas imports,” he said. “Countries such as Hungary and Slovakia and those who have been big buyers of Russian LNG, will press for that review.”

In any case “the Russian federal budget will have a much better result in March,” Weafer said, due to lower discounts on Russian oil and “because there are eager buyers of Russian oil and oil products.”

Putin said European governments were to blame for their energy predicament.

“What is happening today on the European markets, is, of course, above all the result of the mistaken policies of European governments in the energy sphere,” Putin said Wednesday on state TV.

He said that “maybe it would be more beneficial for us to halt (gas) supplies now to the European market, and leave for the markets that are opening and get established there,” adding that “it’s not a decision, but in this case what’s called ‘thinking out loud.’”

Putin said he would have the government to look into the issue.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Wednesday that Russian oil was “in demand” and that Russia was ready to increase supplies to China and India, the Tass news agency reported.

The head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, took a dig at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, writing on X that “surely the wise Ursula and Kaja have a backup LNG plan. Or maybe not.”

Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Spain have continued to import around 2 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG per month, and on top of that Hungary imports 2 billion cubic meters a month through the Turkstream pipeline across the Black Sea, Tagliapietra said. That would amount to 45 billion cubic meters in 2026, 15% of total gas demand for this year.

It's “not easy to replace this in case the LNG market gets tighter with continued shutdowns in Qatar,” he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin leads a cabinet meeting via videoconference at the Kremlin in Moscow, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

FILE - This image made from a video provided to The Associated Press by a Middle East defense official shows a helicopter raid targeting a vessel near the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, April 13, 2024. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - The Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiisk, in southern Russia, is seen on Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015. (Sergei Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Roman Artyukhin, the head of the treasury, at the Kremlin in Moscow, on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - An oil tanker is moored at the Sheskharis complex in Novorossiysk, Russia, Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022. (AP Photo, File)