The World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a report released Thursday that global trade growth is set to slow in 2026 after a stronger-than-expected performance in 2025, warning that the ongoing Middle East conflict could add further pressure on global trade.
At a press conference on the WTO's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report at its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could further slow down trade growth if energy prices remain elevated.
"Under our baseline forecast scenario, world merchandise trade volume growth would slow from a stronger-than-expected 4.6 percent in 2025 to a modest 1.9 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 2.6 percent in 2027. If sustained, however, the recent rise in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict could shave another 0.5 percentage points off merchandise trade volume growth this year, lowering it from 1.9 to 1.4 percent," she said.
Okonjo-Iweala said the outlook reflects the resilience of global trade, supported by trade in high technology products and digitally delivered services, adaptations in supply chains and the avoidance of tit-for-tat retaliation on tariffs.
However, she cautioned that sustained increases in energy prices could increase risks for global trade, with potential spillovers for food security and price pressures on consumers and businesses.
The WTO economists see a potential upside if the Middle East conflict is short-lived and AI-related spending remains strong throughout 2026 and into 2027, which could lift merchandise trade growth by 0.5 percentage points to around 2.4 percent in 2026 and 2.7 percent in 2027.
Under the baseline scenario, Asia is expected to lead merchandise trade growth in 2026, with imports rising by 3.3 percent and exports by 3.5 percent. South America is also projected to post strong export growth of 3.5 percent.
In contrast, North America's imports growth would remain flat at 0.3 percent. Europe's exports are forecast to stagnate at 0.5 percent, while the Middle East is expected to see a sharp slowdown in exports to 0.6 percent.
The report also highlighted continued disruptions to global transport and services trade linked to the Middle East conflict.
The WTO cautioned that a prolonged crisis may lead to structurally higher transport costs, reduced transshipment activity and shifts in global travel and trade patterns toward alternative routes.
Global trade growth to slow in 2026 amid further pressure from Middle East conflict: WTO
