Lowering the marathon mark: Researcher says sub 2-hour record could be reduced by 5 minutes

Only days after the first sub-2 hour marathon , an Australian university professor who has devoted much of his career to studying times over the 42.195-kilometer (26.2-mile) event says the mark could improve by more than five minutes.

On Sunday, Sabastian Sawe of Kenya won the London Marathon in 1 hour, 59 minutes and 30 seconds, bettering the previous men’s world record by 65 seconds. He held off Ethiopia’s Yomif Kejelcha, who was running his first official marathon and finished in 1:59.41 — the first two men to complete a marathon in under 2 hours.

Sawe, who arrived home to a hero’s welcome in Kenya on Wednesday, broke the previous mark held by his countryman, Kelvin Kiptum, who died in a car accident in February 2024.

Simon Angus of Melbourne's Monash University, who describes himself as a data scientist and economist, analyzes the historical progression of the men’s and women’s world marathon records. He first predicted in a 2019 research paper that the first sub 2-hour men's time wouldn't be achieved until 2032.

In 2023, he revised that prediction to March 2027. With the weekend times in London, Angus says with further modeling, a new benchmark could be 1 hour, 54 minutes – five minutes, 30 seconds faster than Sawe ran in London.

That kind of time would set a whole new benchmark.

“I think that should stand a very long test of time, I wouldn't expect this in my children's lifetime,” Angus told The Associated Press in an interview Thursday. "We could be running a different kind of marathon, at the hypothecial, theoretical limit.

“There could be rule changes . . . what kinds of material in the shoes or singlets, feedback technology. It's a tussle between technology advances and doping control."

Angus added that often the most-talented runners are able to take advantage of improving technologies.

“In trying to achieve a marathon world record, there are so many different areas of innovation,” Angus said. “There is a huge amount of money being spent on nutrition, training, shoe technology. What it means is that when someone puts their face a little bit in front, they get the benefit of those technological improvements."

Angus wrote in an analysis published in The Conversation Australia this week that his " statistical framework " uses an assumption that, over time, performance gains become harder to achieve.

“Any of us who have aimed to improve on our local park run time will know all too well how hard it becomes to eke out more performance gains after the initial euphoria of the first week or two’s improvements is over,” he wrote.

A record also was established in the women’s race in London on Sunday, with Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa winnnig in 2:15:41 to efend her title in the fastest-ever time in a women’s-only marathon.

Angus said that because there have been fewer women's-only marathons, it has been more difficult to publish data on them.

“Women’s times are in a gray space,” Angus said, but still predicted a time of 2 hours, 10 minutes — about five minutes faster than Assefa's time on Sunday — as one that eventually could be established.

The 47-year-old Angus is a married father of three who has run training marathons most recently in just under three hours.

He said he received word about the sub-2 hour London result — the time he predicted wouldn't happen initially for another six years — about 9 p.m. Sunday local time in Melbourne, just after the race finished.

“A friend texted and the first thing he said is ‘you are going to have a lot of work to do,’” Angus said. "I thought they'll break the world record but there's no way they'll do sub-2.

“Then I checked and thought, ‘now I probably need to get on to it.’”

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Ethiopia's Tigst Assefa speaks during an interview with The Associated Press after winning the London Marathon, in London, Monday, April 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

Sebastian Sawe from Kenya, winner of the men's race, and Tigst Assefa of Ethiopia winner of the women's race, celebrate with the sporting life trophy on the podium after the London Marathon, Sunday April 26, 2026. (John Walton/PA via AP)

Yomif Keyelcha of Ethiopia celebrates after the men's race at the London Marathon in London, Sunday, April 26, 2026.(AP Photo/Ian Walton)

Sabastian Sawe is welcomed after arriving on a flight from London, Wednesday, April 29, 2026, at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi, Kenya, after setting a new world record in the marathon. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga) CORRECTION: Corrects spelling of first name to Sabastian, not Sebastian

Sabastian Sawe from Kenya crosses the finish line to win the men's race at the London Marathon in London, Sunday, April 26, 2026.(AP Photo/Ian Walton)

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Jabari Smith Jr. scored 22 points, Tari Eason added 18 and the Houston Rockets avoided playoff elimination for the second straight game with a 99-93 victory over the Lakers in Game 5 on Wednesday night, trimming Los Angeles' lead in the first-round series to 3-2.

Alperen Sengun had 14 points, nine rebounds and eight assists for the fifth-seeded Rockets, who sent the series back to Houston for Game 6 on Friday night with a gritty performance to overcome Austin Reaves' return to the Lakers.

Houston has won two straight even without top scorer Kevin Durant, who has missed four of the series' five games with injuries.

“We put ourselves in a bad position, but we can still make history and come back one game at a time,” Sengun said. “Play at home, come back here, just do the same thing we're doing.”

No team has ever recovered from an 0-3 deficit to win an NBA playoff series, but the Rockets are halfway. Only four of the 159 teams to start a series down 0-3 have ever even forced a Game 7.

LeBron James scored 17 of his 25 points in the second half and added seven assists, but Los Angeles lost its second straight after stealing Game 3 with an improbable rally in the final seconds of regulation.

James’ teams have never blown a 2-0 series lead in his entire 23-year NBA career.

“Listen, it’s one game,” James said. “You give credit where credit is due. They played well the last two games, exceptionally well, and we’ve got to answer the call.”

Reaves had 22 points and six assists in his return from a nine-game injury absence for the Lakers, but they committed 15 mostly atrocious turnovers in their worst performance of the series and only their second loss in 16 home games since February.

Los Angeles awoke for a late 11-1 run and trimmed Houston’s lead to 88-85 on a driving layup by James, but Reed Sheppard hit a jumper before ripping the ball away from James for a dunk with 2:20 to play. The moment looked like redemption for Sheppard, who committed a turnover forced by James that led to the Lakers' last-minute comeback to tie Game 3.

"After what happened in Game 3, we could have very easily shut it down and pouted and quit," said Sheppard, who was ill with congestion and a headache during the day. “That's not what we did. We watched it and we learned from it. We keep fighting and keep giving ourselves a chance to win.”

Deandre Ayton had 18 points and 17 rebounds for Los Angeles, which is still without Luka Doncic. The NBA scoring champion doesn't appear to be close to a return from a strained hamstring.

Strained oblique muscles had sidelined Reaves since April 2, but he had 11 points and six assists in the first half of Game 5. Yet the Rockets coolly carried an advantage into the second half and led 87-74 with 5:55 to play.

Ayton's putback dunk made it 96-93 after James and Reaves both missed open 3-pointers. But Thompson hit one of two free throws, and James badly missed another 3-point attempt that allowed Houston to ice it.

The Rockets shot particularly poorly while losing the series' first two games in Los Angeles, but they've rediscovered their collective touch while running a balanced offense in Durant's absence. Houston has played with the confidence exemplified Tuesday by Smith, who claimed the Rockets were “obviously the better team” despite their 3-1 series deficit.

The Rockets' resilience is also good news for the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, who are resting and awaiting the series winner after sweeping Phoenix.

AP NBA: https://apnews.com/NBA

Houston Rockets' Kevin Durant watches from the bench during the first half in Game 5 of a first-round NBA playoffs basketball series against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakes' LeBron James shoots as Houston Rockets' Alperen Sengun defends during the first half in Game 5 of a first-round NBA playoffs basketball series Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Houston Rockets guard Josh Okogie, center, grabs a rebound away from Los Angeles Lakers forward Rui Hachimura, left, as forward Tari Eason also reaches during the first half in Game 5 of a first-round NBA playoffs basketball series Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves, right, shoots as Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr., left, and guard Aaron Holiday defend during the first half in Game 5 of a first-round NBA playoffs basketball series Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, center, passes the ball as Houston Rockets forward Tari Eason, left, and center Alperen Sengun defend during the first half in Game 5 of a first-round NBA playoffs basketball series Wednesday, April 29, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)