What Russia’s low‑key Victory Day celebrations reveal about Putin and the war in Ukraine

Tensions are high as Russia prepares to celebrate its most important secular holiday Saturday. Fears in Moscow about security amid the war with Ukraine have forced officials to scale back the annual celebrations, and signs of domestic discontent are casting a shadow over President Vladimir Putin's Red Square events.

A unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine that Russia announced for Friday and Saturday quickly unraveled. Moscow and Kyiv blamed each other for the continued fighting, just as they did when Ukraine’s own unilateral ceasefire swiftly collapsed earlier in the week.

The accusations reflect the deep-seated lack of trust between the two sides more than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor. That has thwarted U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to find a peace settlement.

Ukraine's new drone and missile technology has helped it hit deep inside Russia frequently and accurately in recent months, especially major oil facilities.

Meanwhile, rumblings of unhappiness with some of the Kremlin’s wartime policies have put the spotlight on Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is due to make a speech on Saturday to mark Victory Day. It commemorates victory over Nazi Germany 81 years ago in World War II and has in the past provided an opportunity for fanfare and national fervor as well as showcasing Russia's military might.

This year is different.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Friday that its forces in Ukraine “completely ceased combat operations and remained at their previously occupied lines and positions” from midnight, when Putin’s unilateral ceasefire came into force.

But it accused Ukrainian forces of continuing to strike Russian positions as well as civilian infrastructure in border areas of the Belgorod and the Kursk regions.

Air defenses shot down 390 Ukrainian drones and six Neptune long-range guided missiles aimed at Russia after midnight, according to the ministry.

A Ukrainian drone strike hit the administrative building of the Southern Russia Air Navigation branch in Rostov-on-Don, forcing 13 airports in the south of the country to suspend operations, Russia’s Transport Ministry said. Flights resumed Friday afternoon.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a different story. Russian forces continued attacking on the front line overnight, he said, while Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 56 Russian drones.

“All this clearly shows that there was not even a pretense of a ceasefire attempt from the Russian side,” Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine also claimed Friday more long-range strikes on Russian oil facilities. Zelenskyy said one hit the Yaroslavl region, more than 700 kilometers (400 miles) from the border, although he didn’t specify when the attack happened. Ukraine’s Security Service said a separate strike hit a major Russian oil refinery and pipeline pumping station in the Perm region, more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) away.

Putin, who has ruled Russia for more than 25 years, has used the USSR’s victory in World War II to rally support for him and the war in Ukraine, as well as to project Russia’s global clout.

That made it surprising that the traditional parade will take place without tanks, missiles and other military equipment, aside from war planes in a traditional flyover, for the first time in nearly two decades. Officials put the move down to the “current operational situation,” without elaborating.

Russia’s bigger and better-equipped army has been engaged in a slow, hard slog in Ukraine. The February 2022 invasion was supposed to deliver a quick win for the Kremlin.

Ukraine’s long-range attacks deep inside Russia are rattling the Kremlin. The attacks are targeting Russian oil production as well as manufacturing plants and military depots.

Some Russians are disgruntled about internet censorship and government control over online activities, including the blocking of the popular messaging app Telegram.

All mobile internet access and text messaging services will be restricted in Moscow on Saturday, according to the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media. It said the drastic measures were to ensure public safety

The restrictions will apply to websites on the Russian government’s “white list,” a group of state-approved online services that are kept available during the country’s increasingly common connectivity blackouts. Home internet and Wi-Fi will be unaffected, authorities said.

“A military parade is intended as a demonstration of strength and bravery, but if it is held furtively ... and with the internet jammed (to reduce the chances of a Ukrainian attack drone being able to navigate to the site), it demonstrates nothing but fear and weakness,” Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a Berlin-based think tank, wrote in an analysis this week.

Russian officials have repeatedly warned that Moscow would take decisive action — including a potential mass strike on Kyiv — if Ukrainian attacks disrupt official events scheduled for Saturday.

“We have strengthened our focus on the possibility of retaliatory measures,” presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told journalists Thursday.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry advised foreign embassies and international organizations located in Kyiv to evacuate their offices in case such a strike did take place, and the Defense Ministry urged civilians to evacuate, too.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, expressed surprise that foreign dignitaries would be going to Moscow for the commemorations.

Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko were due in the Russian capital. Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia, a European Union member, was to meet with Putin and lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier memorial just outside the Kremlin walls but stay away from the Red Square parade.

AP reporter Hanna Arhirova contributed to this story from Kyiv, Ukraine.

Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Famous Ukrainian actor Volodymyr Talashko looks on at a monument to pilots to mark Victory Day in World War II, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, May 8, 2026, as the Russian attack on Ukraine continues. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

People lays flowers to the monument of the Unknown Soldier to mark Victory Day in World War II, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Ukrainian army officers lay flowers at a monument to pilots to mark Victory Day in World War II, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, May 8, 2026, as the Russian attack on Ukraine continues. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Actors attend a historical reenactment depicting the arrival of trains after the end of the war as a part of celebrations ahead of the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany during World War II, at the Baltiysky railway station in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, May 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)

WASHINGTON (AP) — America’s employers delivered a surprising 115,000 new jobs last month despite an economic shock from the Iran war.

Hiring beat the 65,000 jobs forecasters had expected, though it decelerated from the 185,000 jobs created in March. The unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The Iran war has caused the biggest disruption of global oil supplies in history and sent average U.S. gasoline prices surging past $4.50 a gallon this week. But the conflict hasn’t done much damage to the American job market so far. And the import taxes — tariffs — that President Donald Trump imposed last year haven't turned out to be as high and as damaging as originally feared.

“The labor market is not booming, but it is proving harder to break than many feared,’’ said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at Fitch Ratings.

Healthcare added 37,000 jobs last month and transportation and warehousing companies 30,000. However, manufacturers cut 2,000 jobs in April and have shed 66,000 jobs over the past year despite Trump’s protectionist policies aimed at creating factory jobs.

“Businesses to some extent are viewing the conflict in Iran as temporary,'' said Gus Faucher, chief economist at the financial firm PNC. ”We continue to see solid growth in consumer spending. And we’re seeing strong business investment, particularly around tech and AI. The economy continues to expand. We’ve weathered some shocks. The worst of the tariff impact is likely over.''

Still, Faucher cautioned that "the longer conflict in Iran lasts, the higher energy prices go, the longer they stay elevated the greater the drag on the economy.''

Labor Department revisions shaved 16,000 jobs from February and March payrolls.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from March and 3.6% from April 2025, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

The number of people in the U.S. labor force dropped last month, and the share of those working or looking for work — the so-called labor force participation rate — dropped to 61.8%, lowest since October 2021.

Baby Boomer retirements and Trump’s immigration crackdown mean that fewer people are competing for work and that the economy doesn’t need to generate as many jobs as it used to.

Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics says the so-called break-even point — the number of new jobs required each month to keep the unemployment rate from rising — is now near zero.

After the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks Feb. 28, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. The disruption has caused a painful increase in the price of energy and led many economists to downgrade their estimates for global and U.S. economic growth.

Payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday that private employers added a solid 109,000 jobs in April. The ADP figure isn't a reliable guide to what the Labor Department will report Friday – but the pace of hiring it showed was the fastest since January 2025. And on Tuesday the Labor Department reported that a measure of gross hiring – before subtracting those who left or lost their jobs – was stronger in March than it had been in more than two years.

The economy is getting a boost from big tax refund checks this spring, arising from Trump’s tax cut legislation last year; the refunds allow consumers to spend more freely, giving companies an incentive to add workers in response to rising sales.

The job market is showing intermittent signs of recovery after a bleak 2025. Employers last year created just 9,700 jobs a month, fewest outside a recession year since 2002. High interest rates and uncertainty over Trump’s economic policies held back hiring.

There's been progress this year, but it's been uneven — strong growth (160,000 new jobs) in January, March (185,000) and April's 115,000 and one bad month (employers cut 156,000 jobs in February).

U.S. hiring, though, has been dominated by one industry: Healthcare companies, catering to an aging American population, have added 456,000 jobs over the past year; other employers have combined to cut 205,000 over the 12 months that ended in April.

Still, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that last month's job gains extended beyond healthcare. Retailers, for example, added 22,000 jobs and construction companies 9,000.

“America’s hiring recession appears to be over,'' she wrote. "Average job gains in 2025 were an anemic 10,000 a month. So far in 2026, the average is 76,000. The bad news is inflation is eating up wage gains again. Wages grew at 3.6%. That certainly won’t be enough at a time when inflation is expected to hit 4%. Americans still have jobs, but they are financially squeezed by surging gas prices and transportation costs.”

The jobs data will likely keep the Fed on the sidelines, as it holds its key rate unchanged while evaluating the economic impact of the Iran war. Fed officials are increasingly focused on inflation, which has risen quickly since the war, driven higher by spikes in gasoline prices.

Inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, a two-year high and far above the Fed’s target. The Fed typically keeps its rate unchanged -- or even raises it -- to combat inflation, while it cuts rates to spur more growth and hiring. Early this year many Fed policymakers were worried the job market was stalling and leaned toward rate cuts. But in more recent months hiring has stabilized, undermining the case for cuts.

The strong hiring data lands as U.S. corporations post solid quarterly performances to start the year.

Friday's jobs report, PNC's Faucher said, “actually makes it less likely that we see a rate cut anytime soon because the Fed can say: ‘The job market is solid. Let’s get inflation back down to 2%. This is not the time to cut rates.’ ’’

AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this story.

FILE - Hiring sign for sales professionals is displayed at a store, in Vernon Hills, Ill., Wednesday, April 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, file)

FILE - The per-gallon price is displayed elecronically over the grades of gasoline available at a Buc-ee's convenience stop Thursday, May 7, 2026, in Johnstown, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, file)

FILE - A job seeker waits to talk to a recruiter at a job fair Aug. 28, 2025, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier, File)