Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Nino conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday.
"Our experts estimate an 80 percent probability that El Nino conditions will emerge in the period between June and August 2026. This likelihood increases to around 90 percent through the remainder of the forecast period, that is September-December. The footprint of El Nino travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains and livelihoods across entire regions," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said at a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland.
The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors, Saulo said, adding that advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact of El Nino.
According to the WMO, El Nino is typically marked by rising ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.
Typically developing between March and June and reaching its peak intensity between November and February, El Nino's influence on global temperatures is most evident in the second year after development.
WMO says El Nino increases risk of extreme weather
