Summer crop sowing in India has dropped by nearly 23 percent compared to the same period last year amid a sluggish start to the monsoon season in June, raising concerns over agricultural output, particularly for rice.
Nearly half of India's population depends on farming for their livelihood, and the sector relies heavily on rain-fed irrigation.
As the monsoon advances across much of the country, rice sowing is entering a critical phase. However, the meteorological department has forecast below-average rainfall this season, casting a shadow over millions of farmers.
Gurdayal Singh, a farmer in India's northern state of Haryana, who has taken 12 acres of land in hopes of a good harvest, voiced deep concern.
"We fear that if we do not get enough rain, the yield will be low, around 10 to 15 quintals per hectare, maybe 20 in some spots. But even that would be a huge loss for farmers like us," he said.
To mitigate the risks posed by a weak monsoon, the government has prepared contingency plans for more than 300 vulnerable districts.
However, experts have warned that farmers could face mounting input costs if rainfall remains below normal. Farms may have to rely more heavily on diesel-powered pumps for irrigation, while diesel prices have already risen due to higher global crude oil costs linked to the Middle East crisis.
Another major concern is the availability and cost of fertilizers, which have been affected by disruptions in global supply chains.
While the government maintains that fertilizer stocks are adequate, some farmers reported that supplies are being rationed.
"We get a fixed quantity of fertilizer per acre. The first batch is given twenty days after sowing, then another for the saplings, and the last lot is 60 days before harvest. Right now, there is a shortage," said another farmer, Gurnam Singh Sandhu.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of summer crops has declined by almost 23 percent compared to last year due to the slow start to the monsoon in June. According to some experts, this could pose significant inflation in food prices, even as India puts in place export bans or caps on key crops, including rice, sugar and wheat.
"Even if there is a decline of 30 percent, then the supplies can be managed. Now the issue is that when your exports are banned, no exports or less exports and you are managing these supplies, there will be an increase in the prices," said Balwinder Singh Tiwana, an agricultural economist.
Industry insiders disagree, insisting that prices will stay within a reasonable bound.
"From a trade point of view, I do not have anything in front of me which could justify an increase in prices, even if that increase is there on account of international factors, it will only be a marginal increase, even though the production levels in Pakistan and Thailand will have a major bearing on our domestic food prices also," said Dev Garg, vice president of Indian Rice Exporters Federation.
As the government takes steps to minimize the impact, the biggest concern, if the monsoon season does not pick up in the coming months, will be domestic food inflation.
Weak monsoon threatens India's rice harvest, government prepares contingency plans
