IMF projects 2026 global growth at 3.0 pct, citing Mideast risks

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday projected that global growth will slow to 3.0 percent in 2026 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2027.

This is down from the average global growth rate of 3.5 percent in 2024-2025, but broadly unchanged compared with the IMF forecast published in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook report.

The moderate slowdown reflects the effects of the war in the Middle East being partly offset by accelerated demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle thanks to advances in artificial intelligence and its adoption, the July report said.

Meanwhile, the IMF predicted that China's economy will grow by 4.6 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, representing upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous projections in April.

The global lender noted that China's economy performed faster than expected in the first quarter of 2026, primarily driven by front-loaded public infrastructure investment and a surge in high-tech manufacturing and exports.

The IMF also pointed out that rising global oil prices, continued uncertainties, and structural factors are expected to continue to exert some drag on China's economic activities.

Several blasts were heard Wednesday night in Iran's southern Hormozgan province as the U.S. Central Command said its forces conducted strikes against Iran for a second straight day.

The explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Sirik counties and the Iranian Island of Abu musa, Iranian media said.

Iran said the attacks killed two fishermen in Hormozgan province.

State-run IRIB news agency reported three explosions were also heard in the southeastern Chabahar County, putting at eight the total number of the blasts in Bandar Abbas, where the air defense has become activated.

The U.S. Central Command said in a post on X that its forces "have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."