This summer isn't breaking heat records -- yet. Wait until El Nino kicks in, scientists say

Wildfires are burning in North America and Europe. Deadly heat waves have parked over cities and the world's oceans are the hottest ever recorded for this time of year. A strengthening El Nino is forecast to be off-the-charts, spiking global temperatures and warping weather all over.

While it may seem like the planet is baking through a record-shattering summer from hell, it's not quite in record territory. Yet.

So far this is only the third-hottest year, behind 2024 and 2025, climate statistics show. But give 2026 time. Because of a one-two punch of accelerated human-caused global warming and a supersized El Nino, there's an increasing chance that by the end of the year, 2026 could eke out the crown for the hottest year on record, eclipsing 2024 — or at least come close, scientists said.

Even if this year sets the record, it won't last long. Although scientists disagree on whether 2026 will be the hottest year on record, they agree on it being a near lock that 2027 will beat out any modern year for heat, maybe by a great deal.

With wars around the globe in the last few years people didn't pay much attention to climate change "because the world was on fire in different ways. The world is now on fire again with climate change in a way that’s increasingly difficult to ignore,” said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth. “It's going to keep getting worse.''

Hausfather calculated there's a 35% chance that 2026 will pass 2024 as the hottest year on record. But Hausfather keeps increasing those odds nearly every month — up from only 7% in March.

Former top NASA climate scientist James Hansen, often called the godfather of climate science for 40 years of accurate long-term warnings, predicted that 2026 will edge out 2024 at the end of the year.

The world's daily sea surface temperature tied 2024 starting in May and since June it's been record hot nearly every day. With oceans more than 70% of the globe's surface, there's generally a month-and-a-half lag between heat showing up in oceans and then being reflected in the global average temperature, Hansen said. So it's about time that the entire globe starts shattering records, he said. About 82% of the world's ocean surface is overheated with marine heat waves this year, according to Europe's Copernicus climate service.

About a month ago the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast that there was a 66% chance that 2026 would be the fourth hottest and only a 0.1% chance it would be No.1 for warmth by year's end. NOAA monitoring chief Russell Vose said those odds will be rising when NOAA finishes its analysis from July.

Hausfather said what's changing outlooks is the increasingly strong forecasts for a “mind-numbing” record-setting El Nino.

El Nino is a natural temporary warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific that heats up the globe's average temperature and warps weather extremes across the planet. Most forecasts have El Nino becoming the strongest in history. El Ninos always release pent-up heat in the ocean, but because of greenhouse gases trapping heat and 90% of it going into the world's seas, there's more heat to release, said Zachary Labe, a climate scientist at Climate Central, a science and communications nonprofit.

The amount of heat in the world's oceans — a marker of human-caused climate change — keeps setting new record highs, Labe said.

Climate scientists said what we've seen this summer can't be blamed on El Nino because its impacts really don't kick in for a few more months. The fires, heat and extremes that have dominated the summer of 2026 are what scientists have long been warning about from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

“The driver of the record warmth is climate change in the background. And it’s a much larger — much, much larger — contribution than El Nino, which is just a tenth to two-tenths of a degree on top of that long-term trend,” Labe said.

That warming is accelerating, Hansen said.

That's because traditional industrial pollution that creates soot and smog — which cool the planet and mask greenhouse gas-triggered warming — is decreasing, Hansen said. Also, it looks as if the climate might be reacting to greenhouse gases stronger than scientists anticipated, he said.

This summer’s heat waves have hit hard in places where people aren’t used to triple-digit heat, unlike in the tropics, climate scientists said. And they've been especially noticeable at night, making it hard for people to sleep, which impairs their health and their ability to be productive at work, said Samantha Burgess, global strategic lead at Copernicus climate service.

She pointed to Europe, where there was an “exceptional” heat wave in May, another in June, two in July and another one going on now in France and Spain.

“European heat waves are not in isolation. So there’s also been shocking heat waves in North America. There’s been shockingly hot conditions in South America as well. There’s been devastating heat waves in India,” Burgess said. “There’s always heat waves somewhere in the world sometime, but what is very unusual for Europe for this particular year is the frequency and extent of the heat waves.”

Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said this is what scientists have long been warning about.

"These are vivid pictures of not just the future, which is what we used to say, but on the whole of what climate change is doing. There’s no question that climate change has increased the risk of wildfires. There’s no question that the climate change increased the probability of really hot, nasty, even unprecedented summers around the world.”

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FILE - Firefighters approach towering flames on Mount Kithairon near Porto Germeno, northwest of Athens, Greece, Aug. 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Petros Giannakouris, File)

FILE - Tourists take shelter as they walk in front of the Rome'a ancient Colosseum, Aug. 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino, File)

FILE - Usually submerged areas of the Danube River are exposed amid a drought in Rasova, Romania, Monday, Aug. 3 2026. (AP Photo/ Vadim Ghirda, File)

FILE - People in Lake Country, British Columbia, watch as the Quilpituk Creek wildfire burns on the mountainside across Okanagan Lake, near Fintry, Aug. 3, 2026. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - A baseball fan cools off before a game between the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs in Chicago, July 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

Russia and Ukraine traded accusations Tuesday that each side’s attacks caused civilian deaths, with officials in the Moscow region saying five people were killed there while authorities in Ukraine said a similar number, including two children, died at various sites across the country.

Russia has relentlessly pounded civilian areas of Ukraine, even though Moscow insists its forces target only military facilities.

Since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion over four years ago, Ukraine has developed long-range drones that can strike deep inside Russia. In the past year, its forces have battered oil facilities, major storage depots and other key infrastructure.

More than 16,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since the war began, the United Nations said last month in its most recent casualty report, with the vast majority occurring in areas under the Ukrainian government’s control. Casualties have risen steadily each year.

The U.N. children’s agency on Tuesday urged both countries to uphold international humanitarian law requiring the protection of children, citing recent deaths in Russia's Belgorod and Krasnodar regions, as well as in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions.

“Attacks that kill and injure children must stop,” UNICEF said in a statement.

Meanwhile, escalating attacks on shipping in the Black Sea by both sides has reawakened fears that global food security could be put at risk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video on social media that he said showed a Russian drone hunting a man selling vegetables from a street stall in the southern city of Kherson.

The video shows the man trying to flee the drone as it circles his vehicle, follows him and ultimately strikes the car where he was trying to hide. He suffered wounds to his back, legs and arms, according to an interview he gave to the Kherson regional military administration.

Russia's Defense Ministry did not immediately reply to an Associated Press request for comment.

Drone attacks on civilians have surged since the war began, with 967 people killed, including 10 children, and nearly 7,000 people injured, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office said Tuesday.

Russian drone operators track and strike civilians going about daily activities, according to previous AP reporting. A U.N. commission concluded in October 2025 that such attacks amounted to crimes against humanity.

“The world must see this,” Zelenskyy said. “It must see every piece of evidence that Russia has gone mad and that its soldiers take pleasure in killing and abusing civilians.”

The death toll from a drone strike Monday in the Russian Black Sea resort of Arkhipo-Osipovka rose to seven, including four children, regional authorities said.

On Tuesday, Krasnodar regional authorities updated the number of wounded to 58, with 21 hospitalized.

Video circulating online showed a drone slamming into a crowded beach with what sounded like gunfire in the background. Ukraine has not commented on the strike.

A Ukrainian drone attack Tuesday in the region around Moscow killed five people and wounded 10 others, said Gov. Andrei Vorobyov. Most of the damage occurred in the Chekhov municipal district, where several fires erupted at the Novoselki industrial zone, he said.

In the latest in a series of attacks on Russia’s biggest online retailer Wildberries, the company said its warehouse in the Leningrad region, adjacent to St. Petersburg, was on fire.

In the village of Emmaus, located between Moscow and St. Petersburg, drone debris partially damaged a wall of a Wildberries warehouse, regional Gov. Vitaly Korolyov said.

In the past 18 days, Ukrainian drones have targeted 15 Wildberries warehouses, 13 of which caught fire, said Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. Ukrainian officials say the company provides goods that can be used by the military. Kyiv is also keen to unsettle the Russian public with high-profile attacks.

The Russian Defense Ministry said its forces on Monday night struck “Ukrainian ports, vessels and port infrastructure” used by Kyiv’s army.

In the port of Chornomorsk, in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, Russia said it hit an automobile components plant and a port terminal, where the military vehicles were being repaired and ammunition and fuel were being stored.

In the southern port of Mykolaiv, a bulk carrier with military cargo was damaged, while in Pivdennyi, another Ukrainian port, a vessel unloading military cargo was hit, according to the Russian statement.

The ministry also said two bulk carriers hauling weapons and military equipment were damaged at sea, south of Odesa.

Turkey on Tuesday repeated its appeal for both countries to ensure safe passage in the Black Sea after two Turkish-owned ships were attacked by drones after leaving the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

A Turkish Foreign Ministry statement expressed concerns that the war is increasingly spreading across the Black Sea, threatening merchant shipping, and warned such incidents could have broader consequences, including for the global food supply, as important shipments of grain, fertilizer and other key products move through those waters.

Russian attacks on Mykolaiv, including its port, killed an 89-year-old woman and wounded seven other people aged between 2 and 83, Ukrainian regional officials said.

The Russian strike on civilian infrastructure in southern Odesa region destroyed a private home and wounded two people, according to Oleh Kiper, head of the regional military administration.

In Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, six Russian glide bombs killed two girls aged 5 and 10 and an elderly woman, said Oleh Hryhorov, head of the Sumy regional military administration.

Russian forces also struck Kharkiv and 18 towns and villages across the northern region in the previous 24 hours, killing one person and injuring seven, including an 8-year-old, said Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv regional military administration.

Strikes in Balakliia, also in the Kharkiv region, damaged an apartment building, a library, three stores and more than 10 houses, wounding two women, local authorities said.

Two glide bombs struck Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine, injuring 24 people, local officials said. Kramatorsk sits at the northern end of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt, where Western analysts say Russia is making a renewed effort to break through after four years of attrition.

Vadym Filashkin, head of the regional military administration, urged people still living near the front to evacuate, saying authorities would help with transportation, housing and other support.

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Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, private houses destroyed following a night Russian missile attack are seen in Odesa region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, a firefighter puts out a fire following a Russian missile attack in Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)