Scientists are certain a wayward SpaceX rocket slammed into the moon as predicted

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — A SpaceX rocket that launched a pair of lunar landers slammed into the moon as predicted on Wednesday after drifting off course for the past year, scientists reported.

Although no one observed the actual 5,400-mph (8,700-kph) collision, a telescope in Chile spotted what astronomers have identified as the debris plume resulting from the crash. Space tracking experts said it was inevitable that the leftover rocket segment plowed into the moon.

It’s the latest instance of lunar litter, a problem that many fear could worsen as the U.S. and China race to put astronauts on the moon. In 2022, a Chinese rocket unintentionally hit the moon following a lunar mission, and many more stray rocket pieces likely struck the moon in decades past without scientists' knowledge.

SpaceX's Julianna Scheiman said this week that the company is working with NASA to avoid future wrecks, stressing that this projected crash was not deliberate. A combination of solar activity and gravity accidentally put it on a collision course with the moon, she said.

Boston University's Carl Schmidt said he is “100% certain” that his team's observations revealed signs of the lunar crash. The European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope detected a stream of sodium and lithium stretching for miles (tens of kilometers) into space for at least five to 10 minutes following the impact, he added.

“We don’t have images of the impact" but there's telescope evidence, Schmidt said in an email.

Even before signs of the debris plume were spotted by the telescope in Chile, retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell noted that observations of the dead 4-ton upper stage on Tuesday night showed it heading straight for the moon. The anticipated crash site was a dusty, barren patch near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb — near the edge of the near and far sides, which is especially difficult to observe from Earth.

“There's no doubt in my mind" that the rocket “is now in teeny, little pieces scattered over the moon near Einstein Crater,” McDowell told The Associated Press.

“As a physicist, I know that what goes up must come down,” he added.

Stargazers knew it would be difficult, if not impossible, from the ground to see the plume of dust and rock ejected from the resulting crater, let alone the flash of light from the impact. Orbiting spacecraft had the best chance of witnessing anything — or at least observing the crater after the fact.

Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek was among those aiming his telescope at the moon at the appointed time, but he came up empty.

"We knew this would be a long shot,” Langbroek said.

Like McDowell, Langbroek said he had “no doubt” the rocket met its doom.

Visual confirmation, McDowell noted, will have to wait for NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to fly over the crash scene and send back photos of the impact crater. The space agency doesn't expect that to happen until next week.

The Falcon rocket's upper stage — a fat cylinder more than 40 feet (12 meters) long — hoisted two private lunar landers from Cape Canaveral on Jan. 15, 2025. It ended up adrift after putting Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost and ispace's Resilience on course for the moon. Resilience wrecked, but Blue Ghost aced its touchdown, becoming the first private spacecraft to do so.

The moon is the new go-to destination in space, with NASA envisioning a stampede of robotic craft over the next several years to form the foundation for a sustainable lunar base. Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin will provide the lunar landers for NASA's Artemis astronauts.

Musk's Starship is making steady progress in test flights from Texas. Bezos' Blue Moon lander has yet to launch. One or both landers will take part in next year's Artemis III, a docking rehearsal in orbit around Earth. A lunar touchdown by astronauts — the first since NASA's Apollo moonshots — could follow as soon as 2028.

“Things are going to get a lot busier near the moon,” McDowell said. “At that point an impact like this on the lunar surface plowing up huge amounts of dust going for hundreds of miles around is not going to be acceptable.”

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

A blue moon rises in San Jose de Maipo outskirts of capital Santiago, Chile, May 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix, File)

FILE - A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from pad 39A with a payload of a pair of lunar landers at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Jan. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/John Raoux, File)

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile toward the sea on Thursday, South Korea's military said, resuming weapons tests days before its rivals the U.S. and South Korea begin annual military drills that North Korea views as an invasion rehearsal.

The launch from North Korea's eastern coastal Wonsan area was detected around 5 p.m., South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said, explaining that South Korea's military has bolstered its surveillance posture and is closely coordinating with the U.S. and Japan.

Japan’s Defense Ministry also said North Korea fired a possible ballistic missile but there was no impact in or around Japan, where the coast guard urged ships around the coast to use caution and notify authorities if any fallen objects were found.

The ballistic missile launch was North Korea’s first since late June, when it tested a tactical ballistic missile with a “special mission” warhead and other weapons. After watching the testing activities, leader Kim Jong Un underscored the need to bolster the military’s “deadly and destructive offensive posture.”

Thursday's launch also came ahead of large-scale, annual exercises to be conducted by the U.S. and South Korean militaries later this month. U.S. and South Korean officials say the training is defensive in nature, but North Korea says the maneuvers are a practice invasion and often responds with its own missile tests and warlike rhetoric.

South Korean and U.S. officials haven't formally released details about this year's joint exercise, but the drills are typically held in the latter half of August.

Kim has been focusing on enlarging its nuclear and missile arsenals since his high-stakes diplomacy with U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed in 2019. Experts say Kim wants international recognition as a nuclear state so that he can demand the lifting of international economic sanctions on North Korea.

U.N. Security Council resolutions ban North Korea from launches involving its huge stockpile of ballistic missiles. Tests of other weapons including cruise missiles and artillery systems are not banned, but experts say they still pose a threat to South Korea and the U.S.

In early July, Kim supervised tests of a nuclear-capable cruise missile aboard a new 5,000-ton destroyer. After years of prioritizing ballistic missile development, Kim has increasingly turned his focus to naval capabilities, including the construction of a nuclear-powered submarine.

In recent years, Kim has boosted his diplomatic credentials by expanding ties with Russia. North Korea has supplied conventional weapons and troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine.

Kim also has pushed to deepen cooperation with China, the North's economic pipeline. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the North Korean capital Pyongyang in June for the first time in seven years.

In response to Trump’s repeated outreach to restart diplomacy, Kim has suggested talks can resume if the U.S. drops its demand for North Korean denuclearization as a precondition.

Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.

FILE - A North Korean flag flutters in the wind atop a 160-meter tower in North Korea's village Gijungdong as seen from the Taesungdong freedom village inside the demilitarized zone in Paju, South Korea on April 24, 2018. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man, File)