Climate change contributed to big Canada fires, study says as Trump blames mismanagement

Human-caused climate change doubled the likelihood of the tinderbox weather conditions that sparked Canada’s massive summer wildfires and in turn angered U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a study released Thursday.

And fire and climate scientists said Trump, who has talked about punishing Canada for poor fire management and sending days of choking smoke across the border, should look more in the mirror than up north when it comes to blame. They point to the United States' huge historical emissions of heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil and gas.

The fire weather conditions in Northwest Territories and northwestern Ontario, while unusual but not that rare, were still made twice as likely by global warming, said Thursday's study by World Weather Attribution, a group of international scientists who examine extreme weather conditions to see if there are climate change fingerprints. It's about the same as the team found for summer fires in France, but not nearly as clear a climate fingerprint as they calculated in Spanish fires, which the scientists said were 20 times more likely because of climate change.

The study, which was done so quickly it has not been peer reviewed yet, looked at the weather conditions that are connected to large wildfires and the Canadian index for those conditions, which are heat, lack of rain, humidity and wind. The researchers found the doubling of frequency when — using scientifically accepted techniques to search for climate fingerprints — they compared current conditions to a world without the 2.5 degrees (1.4 degrees Celsius) of warming that's occurred since the industrial age and burning of fossil fuels started. The weeklong weather conditions that led to the fires in Ontario are now the type that can happen every six years or so, the report said.

“In a pre-industrial climate this would have been much less likely to occur, maybe once in a lifespan. So climate change has made those events more likely,” said study co-author Jonathan Boucher, a fire scientist at Canada's Forest Service.

Outside climate and fire scientists said the flash study made sense and reflects a world where hotter and drier conditions are making fires burn more often and more intensely.

“Mother Nature's been burning. Now she's on amphetamines and she burns more and more,” said Thompson Rivers University fire scientist Mike Flannigan, a Canadian expert who wasn't part of the study.

Hazardous smoke spread across both the United States and Canada, choking large cities such as New York.

By burning more and fossil fuels, “we're putting nails in our coffins,” Flannigan said.

In the larger and remote Northwest Territories fires, where more than 5,000 square miles (12,950 square kilometers) burned, it's clear the spark was from lightning but it was the climate conditions that took that initial ignition and made the fire burn intensely and spread too fast to control, said Boucher and report lead author Theodore Keeping, a climate scientist at Imperial College in London.

While people start about half of Canada's wildfires — accidentally or on purpose — fires sparked by lightning are responsible for more than 90% of the land area burned in Canada, Flannigan said.

“What we're facing here is more of a climate related problem than a forest management problem," Boucher said.

That's not how Trump sees it.

“A lot of damage has been done. They’re not managing their forests properly," Trump said July 21. “And the wind has a tendency to blow right over New York City, right over, you saw Detroit, they had to close the whole place. Michigan was really affected. They had to close businesses for four days. It’s very serious what they’re doing, and they don’t seem to be able to do anything about it. If they managed their forests, they wouldn’t have the fires.”

When asked Sunday about punishing Canada, Trump on Air Force One told reporters he has decided one, adding “you'll find out about it soon.”

Canadian climate and fire scientists said Trump doesn't understand the root causes.

“Smoke does not carry a passport, but carbon pollution does have a history. That history shows that the United States contributed more than any other country,” said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver. “President Trump is pointing at the smoke while ignoring America's fingerprints on the climate conditions behind it.”

Study co-author Friederike Otto, an Imperial College London climate scientist, said, “if you care about anyone but the super rich, you have to stop burning fossil fuels because the impacts are here and they’re now and have huge consequences.”

Canada has warmed 65% more than the United States in recent decades. In the past 30 years, the amount of land annually burned by Canadian wildfires has gone up by about 50% while the amount in the United States has more than doubled.

A big problem that Trump doesn't appear to understand is that much of Canada's forests are remote, northerly and full of spruce and pine that burns hard and fast, all making it difficult to get a handle on, Boucher and Flannigan said.

“In Canada, when things are extreme, you have about a 30-minute window to put that fire out,” Flannigan said. "If you don't get there in 30 minutes, you're out of luck. And many of the fires that start in Canada are northern remote areas that are more than 30 minutes away from an airport. So even with perfect detection systems, we would get there too late and these fires are going to burn.''

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FILE - Wildfire damage is visible in the immediate area surrounding Collins First Nation, a small, remote Ojibwa community in northwestern Ontario, July 22, 2026. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - The sun is obscured by wildfire smoke as people stop to photograph the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, July 17, 2026, on the National Mall in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

FILE - A woman jumps off a dock into Okanagan Lake, in Lake Country, British Columbia, as the Quilpituk Creek wildfire burns on the mountainside across the lake near Fintry, Aug. 3, 2026. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - The Statue of Liberty is visible through haze due to Canadian wildfire smoke during sunset Aug. 5, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, File)

FILE - A helicopter conducting night operations prepares to drop water on the Quilpituk Creek wildfire burning on the west side of Okanagan Lake near Fintry, British Columbia, Aug. 3, 2026. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

BANGKOK (AP) — The head of Myanmar’s military-backed government arrived in Thailand on Thursday for an official visit that could serve as a major steppingstone in his effort to win political legitimacy more than five years after seizing power from an elected civilian government.

President Min Aung Hlaing 's two-day official visit includes meetings with Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and other officials at Government House, where they are expected to sign several memorandums of understanding. Following the meetings, the two leaders will attend a Thailand-Myanmar Business Forum.

The visit has drawn criticism from activist groups such as Justice For Myanmar, which stated that the trip lends “false legitimacy” to Min Aung Hlaing and the ruling generals.

Min Aung Hlaing took a significant step toward would-be political rehabilitation in April when he was sworn in as president following an election held in phases in December and January. Critics dismissed the polls as a sham designed to consolidate the military’s grip on power while ostensibly restoring civilian rule.

The diplomatic outreach is the latest in a series of moves to reengage with countries in the region and the international community after relations became frayed or frosty following Min Aung Hlaing's ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi’s government in February 2021 while serving as army chief.

Western governments have shunned and sanctioned Min Aung Hlaing and his associates for overthrowing Suu Kyi's government. Subsequent serious rights violations followed a deadly military crackdown on protests, which subsequently triggered a nationwide armed resistance movement and a bloody civil war.

The visit is among Min Aung Hlaing’s most significant diplomatic engagements and the latest in a series of trips to neighboring countries, including China, India and Laos, as he seeks to strengthen regional ties since assuming the presidency in April. Despite visits to those countries and close relations with Russia, he has remained largely isolated internationally.

While he attempts to refurbish his image, Myanmar's military continues to wage a brutal war across much of the country against pro-democracy resistance fighters and armed ethnic minority groups seeking greater autonomy.

According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, an independent organization that keeps detailed tallies of arrests and casualties linked to the civil war, more than 8,200 civilians have been killed and 31,645 arrested by Myanmar's security forces as of Wednesday.

Chit Seng, a senior human rights specialist at Fortify Rights, argued last month that changing from a military uniform into a “presidential robe” after fake elections does not alter the fundamental nature of the military government. He described it as a “brutal regime” that kills its own people and should not be legitimized.

In another effort to placate critics, the regime allowed a representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit 81-year-old Suu Kyi this week, the first known contact with an outside international independent humanitarian organization since her detention. The ICRC confirmed the visit but disclosed no details about her health or the contents of the meeting.

She was originally sentenced to 33 years in prison in late 2022, on what her supporters and rights groups said were bogus charges intended to prevent her return to politics.

On April 30, she was moved from prison to house arrest and her sentence was reduced to 18 years, with more than 13 years left to serve. The United Nations, Western governments and international human rights organizations have repeatedly called for her immediate release.

Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Thailand is part of a broader series of trips to neighboring countries as the 70-year-old Min Aung Hlaing seeks to restore his standing within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. He faced years of diplomatic isolation following his 2021 takeover and was barred from top-level ASEAN meetings for failing to comply with a peace plan agreed upon in April 2021.

Bangkok has maintained close ties with Myanmar’s military leadership and has emerged as the strongest advocate within ASEAN for renewed engagement with Naypyitaw.

Although the visit officially concerns bilateral relations, Anutin declared during a visit to Indonesia on Tuesday that a peaceful and stable Myanmar is essential to ASEAN unity and regional stability. He acknowledged that Thailand has advocated for a “calibrated re-engagement approach” that keeps dialogue open and responds to “realities on the ground,” and suggested that the recent ICRC visit to Suu Kyi validated this position.

Thanida Piyachot, another human rights specialist at Fortify Rights, disagreed, saying that recognizing Min Aung Hlaing as a legitimate leader and “shaking the bloodied hands of a war criminal” sends the wrong message to civilians suffering under an “illegitimate military dictatorship.”

She urged Thailand and ASEAN to stop hiding behind non-interference policies and to take proactive roles in promoting human rights in Myanmar.

In this photo released by Myanmar President Office on Monday, Aug. 3, 2026, Myanmar's ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, left, shakes hands with Arnaud de Baecque, resident representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross, during their meeting in Naypyitaw, Myanmar. (Myanmar President Office via AP)

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, left, and Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing review an honor guard during a welcome ceremony at the Government House in Bangkok, Thailand Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)