El Nino is set to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, bringing extreme-weather risks of floods, drought and extreme heat through 2027, said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Thursday.
Fueled by extraordinarily warm waters across the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Nino climate pattern is expected to intensify in the coming months. Forecasters are almost certain that it will persist through February next year, with unusually warm conditions expected across the globe.
"These forecasts show an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent that El Nino will persist through to February 2027," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a press conference in Geneva.
Saulo said El Nino is firmly established in the tropical Pacific as sea surface temperatures in the region are already well above average and are continuing to rise. She warned beneath the surface, an enormous reservoir of unusually warm water could further strengthen El Nino.
"Sub-surface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high, and in some areas, more than eight degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August. This means that there is a huge pool of very warm ocean waters that will fuel the intensity of El Nino," she said.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months. It begins to develop between March and June, reaching its peak intensity between November and February.
"El Nino will peak towards the end of 2026, but its impacts will be felt long after that, including on global temperatures. The powerful 2023-2024 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken," said Saulo.
Scientists have not established that human-caused climate change is making El Nino more frequent or intense. But a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of its effects by strengthening the heat and moisture that fuel extreme weather.
"This El Nino will deliver a major blow to communities, economies, and supply chains across the globe. So, many sectors will be affected: agriculture, trade, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, disaster management, to name but a few. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and extreme weather," the WMO chief stressed.
The WMO noted that a very strong El Nino event increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many parts of the world. However, its impacts can vary according to location and season, and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
In response to this unusual event, the UN weather agency announced its largest mobilization in 50 years, working with national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen weather forecasts and early warnings services to protect lives and livelihoods.
The agency is calling for exceptional preparedness and response measures to reduce the risk of deaths, displacement and environmental damage. Early-warning systems have been strengthened, alongside efforts to deploy medical assistance in advance. But the expected strength of El Nino is raising particular concerns for vulnerable communities.
Saulo explained that preparedness means making decisions before the impacts are felt. Farmers, for example, may opt for crop varieties that can withstand drier conditions, while countries that rely on hydropower can use reservoirs to manage energy supplies and availability.
The duration and severity of El Nino's impacts in individual countries will depend on their capacity to anticipate risks and adapt decisions accordingly. Saulo said that across Latin America and the Caribbean, UN partners are rolling out preparedness plans in countries traditionally hit hard by El Nino. Anticipatory measures include cash assistance, drought- and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection, and flood safeguards.
Powerful El Nino heightens extreme-weather risks through 2027: WMO
