Analysis: Trump's solution to Republicans' midterm troubles is more Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — During his first address to a Republican convention in 2016, Donald Trump had an audacious message to a nation yearning for change: “I alone can fix it.”

A decade later and nearing the midpoint of his final term, Trump is still pitching himself as America’s essential repairman. It’s a strategy that’s helped him overcome daunting odds before but now guarantees this year’s midterms will be a referendum on his unpopular presidency. And it previews how difficult it will be for his party to prepare for a future without him as he shows little interest in ceding the stage.

On Thursday, the final night of Republicans' unusual midterm convention, Trump said he would speak for just a few minutes. Instead he held court for a half hour, repeating many of the points he made in a nearly two-hour speech the previous night, then lingered as balloons dropped from the ceiling and his favorite opera singer serenaded the crowd.

“You've got to do me a favor,” he implored at one point. “You've got to get out and vote, and you're going to pretend I'm on the ballot. Because in a way, I'm on the ballot.”

That reflects Trump’s central challenge heading into the final stretch of the midterms. No one since Ronald Reagan has galvanized Republicans — and helped attract a broader range of voters to the party — quite like Trump. But that success only happens when Trump himself is on the ballot. He has repeatedly struggled to translate his personal popularity to success in competitive races when his election is not on the line.

During Trump’s first midterms in 2018, Republicans lost 40 seats in the U.S. House. When he was off the ballot again in 2022, some of his marquee picks, such as Doug Mastriano for governor in Pennsylvania, lost their races.

It’s a vulnerability Trump is well aware of.

“There’s no reason for it,” he said of the historic headwinds a president’s party faces in the midterms. “It’s something deep down and psychological.”

Trump is betting that Republicans can maintain their grip on power by returning to a handful of now familiar moves ranging from depicting political opponents in catastrophic terms to leaning in on culture war issues involving transgender people. A pledge to send every American adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate faces numerous political and financial hurdles but still garnered headlines at a time when it's tough to capture voter attention.

He’s also highlighting what is, in his telling, the most successful opening stretch of any presidential term as he tamed immigration, saved the country from a nuclear-armed Iran and presided over economic success. All the while, he spruced up Washington and added a ballroom to the White House that, much to his chagrin, he’ll only be able to enjoy for a few months before his term ends.

That grandiose pitchman style, honed for years as a New York tabloid staple and reality television star, has propelled him through a cascade of crises, including two impeachments, several federal indictments and a criminal conviction. It’s helped him connect with voters drawn to his confidence and bend reality to his vision.

But a protracted war, economic anxiety and accusations of corruption and personal enrichment are testing Trump’s strategy. Just a third of U.S. adults approve of how he is handling the presidency, according to a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s down slightly from 37% in June and well below the 42% who approved of his work when he took office.

Majorities also disapprove of his handling of the economy and immigration, issues that were central to Trump’s election in 2024.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found 46% of registered voters said the Democratic Party was more in touch with the concerns of most people in the U.S., compared with 35% who said the same for the Republican Party.

Trump is working against a sobering reality that most presidents encounter around the sixth year of their time in the White House. Voters become restive for change and ambitious politicians begin gaming out ways to launch campaigns of their own.

Presidents can sometimes find themselves sidelined in these final years. During the 2000 and 2008 campaigns, Al Gore and John McCain campaigned sparingly with the presidents they were aiming to succeed, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

Trump is already fighting that fate. He’s pledged to campaign in the coming weeks for Republicans in competitive races, something many candidates might not welcome as they seek to distance themselves from Trump.

And as the early contours of the next presidential campaign take shape, loyalty to Trump is again proving key. Vice President JD Vance, a potential 2028 candidate, hailed him on Thursday as the “toughest S.O.B. in American politics," earning a roar of applause from the Republican faithful.

That admiration for Trump could prove an asset in a Republican primary, where supporters of the president will wield significant influence. But it could leave the party's ultimate nominee in a difficult position in a general election, especially if Trump's popularity doesn't rebound.

After all, presidential politics can take unexpected turns.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a potential White House candidate who pointedly refused to endorse Trump at the 2016 convention, praised him Thursday. Commemorating the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, he noted the twists of history.

“In 2001, it would have been hard to imagine where we are today,” he said. “Who could have predicted that the extraordinary Donald Trump would be president?”

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Vice President JD Vance speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Balloons fall on the crowd after President Donald Trump spoke at the Republican convention, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

President Donald Trump speaks at the National Medal of Honor Museum, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

DALLAS (AP) — President Donald Trump and his Vice President JD Vance teamed up Thursday to close out the second and final night of the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas, imploring voters to stick together to save their party’s majorities in Congress.

Republicans know they are up against history, which traditionally rebuffs the party in power during midterms, but they're relying on Trump’s personal appeal to voters. Vance, with a primetime speaking slot right before the president, was widely watched as a potential heir to the “Make America Great Again” movement.

Trump organized the convention hoping to rally voters who turn out for him, but not for other candidates.

“You got to do me the biggest favor you’ve ever done,” Trump told the crowd. “You’ve got to do this for me.”

At one point he led the crowd in a repeat-after-me pledge to swear to vote on Nov. 3.

Vance delivered searing criticism of Democrats, calling them “the party of hatred.” And even though Republicans have faced their own rifts over Trump's war in Iran and other issues, he urged them to remain united for the midterms.

“Don’t give the country over to a bunch of crazy people because you happen to disagree with us on a policy issue here or there,” he said.

Republicans face a potential reckoning this fall. They are struggling to bolster enthusiasm for congressional candidates and laboring to overcome voters’ concerns about the economy and the war with Iran. While many Republicans skipped the confab at American Airlines Center, others still see solidarity with Trump as their best shot at winning, despite the president’s low approval rating.

Republicans spent two consecutive nights denouncing Democrats as extremists, and Trump capped Wednesday by making the outlandish promise of $5,000 to each American adult if his party wins in November. Such a proposal could cost more than $1 trillion and was roundly panned — even by some Republicans.

As the convention ended, Cheryl McClure of Mansfield, Texas, said she hopes her party's fortunes improve.

“People are talking about what’s happening at the grocery store, and are understandably still afraid, but things are getting better, and it’s our job to spread the word,” she said. “The emotion coming out is good to drive us forward into November.”

House Democrats blasted the Republicans’ convention as an opulent spectacle for an out-of-touch president.

“Donald Trump does not care about the average American family or about affordability," said Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif.

Protesters chanting “say it loud, say it clear, Donald Trump’s not welcome here” marched down streets, but were stopped by police from getting too close to the site.

Vance’s keynote offered hints about his political aspirations, as he spoke about his own family, his wife, Usha, who recently gave birth to their fourth child, and his vision for the country. He has not yet said if he will run in 2028.

When a protester with a Mexican flag interrupted his speech, Vance won an extended roar of approval with his sharp response.

“Well, my friend, if you love Mexico so much, get your a— over there. I’ll buy you a plane ticket,” he said.

"We got to send a message this November,” Vance said. “This country was handed down to us by our parents and their parents before them. We received this national birthright, and we are going to fight for it by electing Republicans this November.”

The vice president, who also serves as the Republican National Committee’s finance chair, raised $2 million for the party earlier Thursday at a fundraiser in Dallas, according to a person familiar with the event who was not authorized to discuss it publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Trump is also deploying his cash in key midterm races. No Going Back PAC Inc., which, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, is connected to Trump’s MAGA Inc., has reserved more than $68 million for advertising. The person was not authorized to speak publicly about the funding arrangement.

Coming on the eve of the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the evening solemnly marked that moment. It also produced a video tribute to Charlie Kirk, who co-founded the conservative group Turning Point USA. He was assassinated one year ago.

“His voice has only grown louder,” said Lucas Miles, a pastor and vice president at Turning Point. The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., drew chants of “USA!” as he honored Kirk and criticized Democrats.

At one point, Rep. Mike Lawler, who is fighting to win reelection in New York, appeared onstage with the family of Sheridan Gorman who was fatally shot in Chicago and officials have charged a man they say was illegally in the country. They presented a bench in her honor as a place where lawmakers can sit to discuss issues.

In a lighter moment, Marty O’Donnell, a composer who is challenging a House Democrat in Nevada, got the crowd to sing along to the earworm jingle he wrote for Flintstones vitamins.

The night's themes delved into what House Speaker Mike Johnson calls the “Contrast for America,” as Republicans showcased what they call their “Big Beautiful Bill” of tax breaks and spending cuts and warned of a bleak future if Democrats take control.

The campaign slogan is a throwback to another Republican leader, Newt Gingrich, who offered a Contract with America. This time, rather than presenting a detailed list of priorities, Republicans are quick to portray all Democrats as in line with their most liberal candidates, some backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, and focused on investigating the Trump administration.

“It truly is a contrast between common sense and crazy,” Johnson said. “We cannot and we will not allow them to take the majority in Congress.”

With the Republican majorities in the House and Senate both at risk this fall, the president’s agenda for his final two years in office is also at stake. The margins in Congress are expected to be narrow, with a few seats in a shrunken map of competitive races determining the outcome.

Presidents past have acknowledged their midterm losses — Barack Obama called his 2010 setbacks a “shellacking,” George W. Bush labeled his a “thumping.”

But Trump often refuses to accept defeat, including his false claims that he, rather than Joe Biden, won the 2020 election. One of the many people he pardoned for their actions in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, former Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes, appeared at the convention.

The night closed with a slow-motion balloon drop that typically falls on a presidential nominee at party conventions, and Trump lingered onstage to enjoy operatic singing from his favorite tenor.

Mascaro reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Jill Colvin, Thomas Beaumont and Jamie Stengle in Dallas, Will Weissert, Steven Sloan and Aamer Madhani in Washington, JJ Cooper in Phoenix, Bill Barrow in Atlanta, Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Mike Catalini in Morrisville, Pennsylvania, Hannah Fingerhut in Des Moines, Iowa, and Sarah Rankin in Richmond, Virginia, contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump stands by while Christopher Macchio, Presidential Tenor performs at the Republican convention, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

President Donald Trump listens while Christopher Macchio, Presidential Tenor performs at the Republican convention, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

President Donald Trump watches as balloons fall at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Vice President JD Vance points to President Donald Trump at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump greets Vice President JD Vance at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

With Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., in rear right, Tom Gordon kisses his daughter Madelon next to his wife Jessica at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Medal of Honor recipients Don Jenkins, left, and Donald Ballard, stand with Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., third from right, as victims and first responders from Sept. 11 are honored at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., right, sits on a bench with Jessica Gorman and joined by her husband Tom and daughter Madelon at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Mark LaMoncha speaks, as seen on a video screen, at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks at the Republican convention, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The honor guards leaves the stage after victims and first responders from the Sept. 11 attacks are honored at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Attendees cheer at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Attendees wave flags during Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson of Louisiana, speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

House Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., speaks at the Republican convention Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

House Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., left, greets House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., at the Republican convention Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. waves after speaking at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

A shirt with the likeness of Charlie Kirk is displayed for sale at the Republican convention, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

An attendee wears a hat with a Charlie Kirk pin at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk stands for an applaud as President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican convention Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Post it notes are placed behind a memorial for Charlie Kirk at the "Creators Deck" for the media, at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Attendees wave signs at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Donald Trump Jr. speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

House Speaker Mike Johnson of La.,, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, with others, attend the Republican convention, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Vice President JD Vance arrives on the stage at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Vice President JD Vance listens as President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican convention Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

U.S Vice President JD Vance participates in an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity during the Republican convention in Dallas, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026. (Eric Lee/Pool via AP)

Supporters of Laurie Buckhout, North Carolina U.S. House candidate, cheer at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas, as Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., listens. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Supporters of Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick attend the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Marty O'Donnell, candidate for the U.S. House in Nevada, speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Laura Loomer talks to people at the Republican convention, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Greg Cunningham, candidate for the U.S. House in New Mexico, speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

People fill the arena at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

People attend the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

A video featuring Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., plays at the Republican convention Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump gestures as he finishes his speech at the Republican convention Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

People listen as President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican convention, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Vice President JD Vance greets the crowd during the Republican National Midterm Convention, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Eric Lee/Pool photo via AP)

President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican convention, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)