The Kremlin relishes in the US-Russia diesel deal and Trump's criticism of Zelenskyy

A deal between Moscow and Washington over exports of Russian diesel and fresh U.S. criticism of Ukraine's leader mark important political victories for the Kremlin, reversing some of the sanctions for its full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

While the size of Russia's diesel exports is relatively small and unlikely to significantly impact prices, the revenue will help Moscow replenish its war coffers and — more importantly — undermine efforts by Kyiv and its European allies to put up a united front against President Vladimir Putin.

Along with President Donald Trump suggesting that Ukraine should get a new leader to replace President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the developments strengthen the Kremlin’s hand at a critical junction of the war, amid relentless attacks by Russia on energy systems and other vital infrastructure.

Ahead of next month's midterm elections, Trump blamed a spike in diesel prices on Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, even though the U.S.-led war in Iran has sent global energy prices soaring.

Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, described the deal that Trump announced Friday as an “astonishing birthday present” for Putin, two days after he turned 74.

While Russia’s diesel exports could be a “drop in the ocean compared with actual overall demand,” Galeotti said it was “a gift for Putin, even if a single barrel of diesel is not exported.”

That's because “it drives another and increasingly thick wedge between Trump and Zelenskyy,” he said in a podcast Sunday.

Even though Trump declared Sunday that Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to an “energy truce” effective immediately, Russia continued attacking Ukraine’s energy facilities, said Zelenskyy, who has criticized the diesel deal as a show of weakness.

Zelenskyy emphasized that he is open to an energy ceasefire if it includes a halt to Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid.

Russia has not said whether it agrees to such a ceasefire, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday only that “contacts are ongoing."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov shrugged off Zelenskyy’s comments as an attempt “to promote his interest in a ceasefire.”

“I don’t think he deserves a respite,” Lavrov said.

Galeotti predicted that Putin is unlikely to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities, which he sees as “absolutely central to his winter air war strategy.”

Russia stepped up aerial attacks on Ukraine in recent months with ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, taking advantage of Kyiv's shortage of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors whose stockpiles have been drained by the war in Iran.

Putin has repeatedly emphasized that Moscow wants a comprehensive, long-term agreement, not a temporary halt to hostilities.

Asked to comment on Zelenskyy’s statement that Ukraine needs a minimum of 60 days to prepare elections, Peskov said Putin could order a ceasefire only on the day of voting.

In recent months, Ukraine launched successful aerial attacks that knocked out over half of Russia's oil refining capacity, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. The strikes caused a severe fuel crisis with long lines at gas stations, bringing the war home to millions.

Ukraine also methodically struck oil terminals at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and targeted dozens of tankers at sea, seeking to derail Moscow’s oil exports and drain Moscow’s revenues.

Putin acknowledged the damage but noted that Moscow is capable of inflicting much bigger blows to Ukraine.

Some officials and analysts questioned whether Russia will be able to provide diesel supplies under the deal announced by Trump.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski voiced doubts about it, saying that even the Russian capital is experiencing fuel shortages.

Others say Moscow actually has a surplus of diesel, now that demand has eased following the end of the harvest season.

“Russia planned to export more diesel anyway,” said Janis Kluge, head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Still, some Russian motorists exhausted by months of waiting at gas stations were worried the new deal could leave fewer supplies for the domestic market.

“I don’t think that’s very good, because you can see what’s going on at gas stations — people are standing in line around the clock," said Marat Salavatov, waiting to refuel at a Moscow gas station.

Russian officials sought to quell such fears, saying there will be enough supply to keep the domestic market stable.

The volume of production is able "to fully satisfy the needs of the local market while delivering the agreed amounts to the global market,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in a government statement announcing the lifting of the diesel export ban that had been in place since July.

In addition to the diesel deal, Trump unleashed biting criticism of Zelenskyy that marks perhaps the lowest point in their relationship since the disastrous Oval Office meeting in February 2025.

That could be even more important for the Kremlin.

Trump’s remark that it was time for a new president in Ukraine and his suggestion that Zelenskyy has not done enough to end the war topped the news on Russian state television and was widely discussed by pro-Kremlin commentators and military bloggers.

Officials in Kyiv viewed the diesel deal and the hostile rhetoric as a political move aimed at making Zelenskyy a scapegoat for U.S. voters ahead of the midterms, said Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker from Zelenskyy’s party.

“We are not happy when our ally and partner gives money to a dictator who is killing us,” Merezhko said. “By demanding that Ukraine stop striking Russian oil refineries, Trump looks as though he cares more about the Russian war machine than about the civilians Putin is killing."

Kyiv fears that easing sanctions without meaningful concessions from Russia could weaken Washington’s leverage over the Kremlin and further diminish prospects for fair terms to end the war.

The Trump-Zelenskyy tensions come as Kyiv continues to rely heavily on Washington for military assistance, including Patriot systems and vital intelligence. A disruption of that support could leave Ukraine more vulnerable.

Galeotti said Trump’s comments casting Zelenskyy as an obstacle to peace were “benefit No. 1 for Putin.”

Trump’s move also raises questions about the European Union’s efforts to go after Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers carrying oil to global markets, he said, observing that Europe has been left in a position "where it’s obviously just regarded as a vassal region that has to accept whatever policy comes from the White House.”

The diesel deal also will boost Russia’s credentials with developing countries, helping its posture as a great global player worthy of being a partner, Galeotti said.

Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center said the move could look like a “moment of triumph” for Putin.

"He has secured an economic deal, albeit a modest one, before a peace settlement, departing from Washington’s previous position,” Stanovaya said in a commentary.

She argued that Putin will see Trump’s current stance as “creating more favorable conditions for intensifying military pressure, aimed primarily at triggering an internal political breakdown in Ukraine rather than achieving a battlefield breakthrough.”

Still, Dmitry Medvedev, who served as a placeholder president in 2008-12 to allow Putin to get around constitutional term limits, warned against excessive optimism over Trump's comments.

“Only our guys, ballistics and Geranium (drones) make victory closer,” said Medvedev, now deputy head of Russia’s Security Council.

——

Samya Kullab in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed.

A residential building burns following a Russian air attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)

A veteran pays his respects at a makeshift memorial to Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war with Russia, on Independence Square in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to head of the Delovaya Rossiya (Business Russia) National Public Organisation Alexei Repik during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

People watch Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on a large screen as he speaks to the Warsaw Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Attila Husejnow)

An explosion involving unexploded ordnance killed a student and injured 24 others during a school trip in northern Israel on Monday, officials said, as tensions continued across the Middle East.

Iran again denied involvement in a suspected attempt to attack a U.S.-run military airbase in England. Meanwhile, Saudi forces responded to a drone and cruise missile attack on the kingdom launched from Yemen, according to state-run media, while Iran-backed Houthi rebels said airstrikes on two districts in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and in the country’s north killed 10 people and wounded 19 others.

Here is the latest news from the Middle East on Monday. Read our full coverage here.

An unexploded munition detonated during a school trip along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon on Monday, killing a teenage boy and injuring 24 others, Israeli authorities and rescue workers said.

The Israeli military said the munition was believed to belong to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. An initial examination of the scene indicated it had been left in the area, the military said.

Local officials said the students were on an annual school trip. Defense Minister Israel Katz said the blast was under investigation.

Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service said two people were seriously injured.

Iran’s ambassador to Britain on Monday again rejected allegations of Tehran’s involvement in an incident at a U.S.-run military air base, urging British authorities to provide evidence supporting their claims, state-run IRNA reported.

Ambassador Ali Mousavi made the remarks during a meeting with Stephen Doughty, Britain’s minister for the Middle East, at the Foreign Office in London. Mousavi told Doughty that Iran had no involvement in the Sept. 27 incident at RAF Fairford and reiterated Tehran’s willingness to cooperate with British authorities in the investigation.

The meeting came as British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the incident was “almost certainly” directed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

“We will not tolerate these threats on our soil," he told lawmakers Monday.

Police have arrested seven men in the investigation into the alleged plot on the airbase, which has been used by American bombers to strike Iran, but all have been released on bail and no one has been charged.

Saudi state-run media say their forces have responded to attacks on the kingdom, but gave no further details.

The report came after Yemen's Houthi-run Health Ministry and the Houthi-controlled SABA news agency said airstrikes on the capital, Sanaa, and in the northern province of al-Jawf killed 10 people and wounded 19 others.

The rebels' media center blamed Saudi Arabia for the Sanaa strikes, which came as the Houthis continued to fire missiles and drones toward the kingdom’s airports. Repeated rebel attacks on King Khalid Airport in the capital, Riyadh, have killed at least 14 people, wounded at least 320 others and caused the facility to close temporarily.

Saudi authorities are investigating the failure by air defense systems to respond to the missiles that hit King Khalid Airport, which is in one of the most secure areas in the kingdom.

Two regional officials said Monday an initial probe showed the Houthis had first fired multiple drones to pave the way for a mix of cruise and ballistic missiles. Both spoke on condition of anonymity because they're not authorized to speak to the media.

One official said the probe also wants to know why there was no early warning of the attack, since the Houthi missiles and drones traveled over 1,000 kilometers to reach Riyadh.

__ By Samy Magdy in Cairo

India's Foreign Ministry said Monday two Indian seafarers are missing after a drone struck the MT Petro Dolphin in the Strait of Hormuz area. The commercial tanker had 11 Indian sailors on board when it was hit Sunday, the ministry said.

A second vessel, the Marshall Islands-flagged MT Valthera, was struck by an unknown projectile, sparking a fire on board, but all 11 Indian sailors on the tanker were safe, the ministry said.

Funerals were held on Monday for five people killed in two separate Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip.

The first attack on Sunday evening killed three people, according to Nasser Hospital officials, at a spot where people gather to charge phones and other batteries in the Musawi area of Khan Younis.

A second attack early Monday in Rafah killed two others near the territory’s biggest bream fisheries.

The Israeli military said it targeted several Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants in the first strike and several Hamas militants in the second.

The European Union's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Monday a new support mission to Lebanon will help train the country's army and security forces “to strengthen territorial control, border security, and internal security.”

She told a meeting of foreign ministers in Luxembourg the new mission would strengthen EU support of Lebanese efforts to restore the government’s full sovereignty and build stability. She described the mission as “a major update of our security ties.”

The mission follows long-serving U.N. peacekeepers leaving at the end of the year.

This report will be updated throughout the day as new developments emerge.

Supporters of Yemen's Houthi rebels shout slogans during a rally in support of the group, in Sanaa, Yemen, Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. Writing on posters reads in Arabic, "God is great, death to America, death to Israel, Curse the Jews, Victory to Islam." (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

Schoolboys ride in the back of a police pickup truck after classes in Aden, Yemen, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdulnasser Alseddik)

A displaced Yemeni family sits beside a makeshift shelter along a roadside in Aden, Yemen, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdulnasser Alseddik)