IMF raises its forecast for world growth this year but says economies will slow in 2027

BANGKOK (AP) — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly upgraded its outlook for the world economy for this year, but it's still forecasting growth at a sluggish 3.1%.

The IMF had forecast global growth at 3.0% in July. The world economy expanded at a 3.5% annual pace in 2025.

The IMF Economic Outlook predicts that growth in the United States will remain steady at 2.3% in 2026 and 2027.

It said it now expects oil prices to be up nearly 41% this year, at an average of $96 a barrel, boosting global inflation to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% last year.

The update released Tuesday, as world economic and financial leaders gather in Bangkok for the fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank, says the boom in artificial intelligence is offsetting damage from sharply higher prices for oil and gas.

But the benefits of the AI boom are not shared equally: the U.S. and China account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of computer chips and other AI-related equipment, it said.

“The outlook is highly uneven,” Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's director of research, told reporters in Bangkok.

Growth is increasingly concentrated, with 32 countries accounting for 95% of global growth, the report said. That compares with 54 countries as of April.

“The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength,” it says.

AI's effects on employment are a key focus of the meetings in Bangkok, which IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described during an event Monday as “a slow moving tsunami, but tsunami nonetheless."

"The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40% — jobs either augmented or downgraded or eliminated. And we are already seeing some of this impact,” she said.

Last week, the IMF chief urged countries both rich and poor to do a better job of improving their national finances, noting that mounting levels of debt pose a growing risk to global financial stability.

That's especially true at a time of high borrowing costs, Tenreyro said.

The report said growth in the advanced economies is forecast to pick up slightly this year, to 2.1% from 2.0% in 2025, and then to slow to 1.9% next year.

It based its forecasts on the assumption that shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March, and that the boom in AI demand will moderate.

Growth in the U.S. will remain flat, at 2.3%, it said.

Countries that are somewhat insulated from the energy shocks of the Iran war and that are benefiting from rapid adoption of AI are managing to keep growth on track. But developing economies and emerging markets more vulnerable to higher costs for oil and gas will see growth slow to 3.7% this year from 4.5% in 2025, the report says. It forecasts they will regain momentum next year, expanding at a 4.4% annual pace.

The situation is much worse in the Middle East and Central Asia, where those regions' economies are expected to contract this year before recovering to a 6.3% rate of growth in 2027.

The 21 European countries that share the euro currency are expected to grow by 1.1% this year and 1.2% in 2027.

China, the world’s No. 2 economy, is expected to expand 4.5% this year, down from 5% in 2025, in line with the government's official target.

India is once again forecast to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy, advancing at a 7% clip, down from a sizzling 7.7% last year.

The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty. At the meetings in Bangkok, finance ministers and central bank governors will assess the state of the world economy and discuss strategies to support financial stability and sustained growth.

AP journalists Haruka Nuga and Tian Macleod Ji contributed.

FILE - The logo of the International Monetary Fund is visible on its building, April 5, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

A person rows a boa beside a logo displayed at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center ahead of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank group in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit) (edited)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at the World Bank Group Flagship Small AI: More and Better Jobs forum during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at the Small AI, Real Jobs forum during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

A motorcycle taxi rides past a banner at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center ahead of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

NEW YORK (AP) — Actor Selma Blair was arrested after she was accused of injuring two flight attendants on a trip from Los Angeles to New York. She was also accused of kicking a police officer taking her to the hospital and kicking a nurse once she got there.

She pleaded not guilty Monday night to two counts of assault for state charges involving the officer and the nurse. And she faces separate federal charges based on what happened on the flight, which her representatives say was brought on by a severe medical emergency.

Blair, 54, was detained by police at around 11 p.m. Sunday after the Delta Air Lines jet parked at the gate at John F. Kennedy International Airport, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in a statement.

Blair and one of the flight attendants were taken to a hospital for evaluation, the Port Authority said.

A police officer taking her to Jamaica Hospital Medical Center said in charging documents that while she was securing Blair to a stretcher, Blair pulled a leg from the straps and kicked her repeatedly around the face, neck and chest, causing serious pain and substantial swelling. Later, a nurse moving Blair said the actor kicked her in the chest, causing substantial pain.

She was arraigned on two counts of second-degree assault late Monday at a court in Queens, where her lawyer entered a not guilty plea on her behalf. She appeared to cry as she stood in court in handcuffs, wearing jeans and a white hooded sweatshirt.

Her attorney Shawn Barnes told a judge her actions were not intentional. He said the actor, who has multiple sclerosis, missed several doses of “a powerful medication that controls severe neurological symptoms,” according to the New York Daily News and New York Post.

He said she had gotten on the flight in Los Angeles after a heavy workload, and hit her head during the flight. He said these factors along with the altitude led to “a state of severe confusion and disorientation.”

The judge set her bail at $20,000 cash or $60,000 bond and set the next hearing for January. She left court with her lawyers.

Details of what happened aboard the aircraft weren’t immediately disclosed by the airline, police or the FBI, which was investigating, but Delta said in a statement it “has zero tolerance for unruly or unlawful behavior, as the safety of our customers and crew always comes first.”

In air traffic communications, the Delta pilot asked the tower to have medical personnel waiting at the gate to treat bite marks and a bloody nose, but said ambulances were not necessary.

“It sounds like the disruptive passenger also bashed her head on the bulkhead or something like that,” the pilot told the tower, according to audio posted on the ATC app. “So we’ll obviously have to get her potentially checked out as well as involved with law enforcement.”

The FBI also issued Blair a notice charging her with assault related to her actions aboard the aircraft, according to a federal law enforcement official who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

Those charges will be handled through the petty violations court in federal court in Brooklyn. No date has been set for Blair’s appearance.

It's not the first time Blair has had issues aboard a plane. In 2016, Blair apologized for making statements she later regretted during a flight from Cancun to Los Angeles. She said she had mixed alcohol with medication, causing her to black out.

Blair had major roles in films including 1999's “Cruel Intentions,” 2001's “Legally Blonde” and 2004's “Hellboy.”

In recent years, she has advocated for disability rights after getting her multiple sclerosis diagnosis in 2018. In 2023, she joined President Joe Biden at the White House to celebrate the anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act.

Yamat reported from Las Vegas and Dalton from Los Angeles. AP Transportation Writer Josh Funk contributed to this report.

Selma Blair leaves court on Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in New York after her arraignment on charges of injuring two flight attendants during a cross-country flight. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

Selma Blair leaves court on Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in New York after her arraignment on charges of injuring two flight attendants during a cross-country flight. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

Selma Blair leaves court on Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in New York after her arraignment on charges of injuring two flight attendants during a cross-country flight. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

Selma Blair leaves court on Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in New York after her arraignment on charges of injuring two flight attendants during a cross-country flight. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

Selma Blair leaves court on Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in New York after her arraignment on charges of injuring two flight attendants during a cross-country flight. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)