The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday raised its forecast for 2027 global oil demand growth for the sixth consecutive month, coming as the head of Saudi oil giant Aramco warned that global crude inventories have fallen to dangerously low levels.
In its monthly oil market report released on Tuesday, OPEC projected that global daily oil demand in 2027 will increase by 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to 2026, reaching roughly 108 million bpd. This is an upward revision from its September forecast of 2.36 million bpd.
The report also said that global daily oil demand in 2026 will rise by 180,000 bpd from 2025 to about 106 million bpd, down from the 380,000 bpd increase projected in September.
According to the report, the upward revision is driven by increased demand expectations for both OECD (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and non-OECD countries.
"Oil demand in 2026 will indeed soften as currently expected and will be further bolstered next year by the need to replenish oil inventories at large," said the report.
Against the backdrop of long-term demand growth, immediate supply chain risks are mounting.
Saudi Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser said Monday that global crude oil inventories were approaching dangerously low levels and could take up to two years to replenish.
With disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pressuring global energy supply chains, crude oil supplies have tightened further, Nasser said at the 25th World Petroleum Council Energy Congress in Riyadh.
He noted that commercial onshore inventories were now well below six billion barrels, describing them as the "last available buffer," with the vast majority of these barrels locked up.
Nasser said that pressure across the energy chain would intensify until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened and market confidence returned, adding that refilling inventories while meeting demand could take up to two years.
Nasser also said Saudi Aramco aimed to increase sales-gas production capacity by roughly 80 percent by 2030 compared with 2021 levels to meet growing energy demand.
OPEC raises 2027 oil demand forecast amid warnings of low crude inventories
China's foreign trade in yuan-denominated terms expanded 18.8 percent year on year in the first three quarters of this year, official data showed on Wednesday.
Speaking at a press conference in Beijing, Wang Jun, deputy head of the General Administration of Customs (GAC), said China's trade in goods imports and exports totaled 39.94 trillion yuan (about 6 trillion U.S. dollars) from January to September.
"According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China's trade in goods imports and exports totaled 39.94 trillion yuan, up 18.8 percent year on year. Among them, exports rose 16.4 percent to 23.2 trillion yuan over the period, while imports climbed 22.3 percent to 16.74 trillion yuan. On a monthly basis, growth remained in double digits for six consecutive months. In September alone, goods trade climbed 27.5 percent from a year earlier to 5.16 trillion yuan, exceeding 5 trillion yuan for the first time," said Wang.
"In the first three quarters, China's equipment manufacturing sector played a prominent leading role, contributing nearly 90 percent of the growth in exports. Intermediary goods accounted for more than half of total export value, effectively serving as an anchor for global industrial and supply chains. Exports moved toward greater intelligence and green development, with integrated circuit exports growing 99.1 percent, while green products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind turbine generator sets and their parts grew 72.3 percent, 36.4 percent, and 22.4 percent, respectively," he said.
On the import side, growth has exceeded 20 percent for seven consecutive months since March, a run that culminated in September with monthly imports topping 2 trillion yuan for the first time. Imports grew 5.9 percentage points faster than exports in the first nine months, outpacing exports in trade with more than 110 countries and regions, promoting more balanced trade development, according to the customs data.
"In the first three quarters, the growth rate of foreign trade was the fastest for the same period in nearly five years, with both quarterly and monthly growth rates generally showing an accelerating trend. The driving forces and vitality of China's foreign trade development have continued to accumulate and strengthen, demonstrating notable resilience, and there is a solid foundation and support for continued import and export growth in the fourth quarter," Wang said.
China's foreign trade expands 18.8 pct in first three quarters
