US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say. If you want more snow, look south

WASHINGTON (AP) — Winter in the United States looks like it will generally be wetter and warmer, but not necessarily snowier, according to the federal government's seasonal outlook and other meteorologists' forecasts. You can thank or blame El Niño.

El Niño is likely to shift weather patterns to bring more moisture, but with it higher temperatures. That should help erase persistent Western drought, but it won't likely make Northern snow-lovers happy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

“This is going to be a winter that’s really difficult for them to find what they’re looking for,” said James Belanger, vice president of meteorology for the Weather Company.

El Niño, the natural but temporary warming in parts of the Pacific, generally warms the globe. Although it disrupts weather conditions around the world in dramatically different ways, its effects tend to follow predictable regional patterns, especially when El Niño is strong like it is right now. That gives forecasters greater confidence in what lies ahead.

All this is on top of a U.S. winter that has warmed about 4 degrees (2.2 degrees Celsius) in the past 50 years, predominantly from human-caused climate change, according to NOAA.

While the weather service doesn't make seasonal snowfall predictions, their meteorologists said much of the northern parts of the country — including the Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies — should expect below-normal snow. The Southern Rockies, parts of the Southeast and Southwest may get more than they usually do.

“Listen, even in the winter months, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to have snow. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a media briefing presenting the three-month winter outlook. “So it doesn’t erase the risk.”

The Northern snow shrinkage is also predicted by private meteorology firms. Salt Lake City is the only big metro area where AccuWeather expects above-normal winter snow amounts. Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia are forecast to get about half or less of their normal winter snow, the firm said.

And a White Christmas? Consider a plane ride to the Southern Rockies, Belanger said. Otherwise, “Santa’s gonna find a barren landscape when he returns in late December.”

Part or all of 41 of the Lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal. No states — or even parts of states — are forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are forecast to be near normal. There's equal chance of warm, cold or normal in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.

And the dreaded polar vortex with its icy blast of Arctic air escaping into the United States? That shouldn't happen as much as most winters, but that doesn't mean it won't happen at all, said National Weather Service meteorologist and branch chief Jon Gottschalck.

“It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,” said AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok, who said to especially watch for Eastern snowstorms in late January and February.

AccuWeather is more bullish than NOAA for snow in the Rockies regions, calling for Denver to have 10 to 18 days with at least 2 inches (5 centimeters) of snow, which is more than the historical average of 9 inches (23 centimeters). The company's overall snow forecast for Denver is still around average, but considerably more than last winter.

NOAA is forecasting that parts of all of 39 states will see a wetter-than-usual winter, with much of Montana and parts of Oregon, Idaho, Wisconsin and Michigan being drier.

“We anticipate drought conditions to improve or end for western portions of Oregon and western Washington state, the Southwest, the central and southern Rockies, the southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and areas in the East,” Gottschalck said.

Mike Bettes, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel, said it will likely be too much rain for California: “We'd anticipate numerous, high-impact atmospheric rivers that could bring extensive flooding and landslides this winter.”

Atmospheric rivers are long and relatively narrow bands of water vapor. They take water from oceans and flow through the sky, dumping rain in prodigious amounts.

Florida and parts of the Southeast should also be on guard for more tornadoes this winter and early spring because of El Niño, Gottschalck said.

Forecasters across the globe expect the current El Niño to reach record levels this fall or winter. Graham, the weather service chief, noted that a strong El Niño doesn't mean its impacts are stronger, but it does make the weather easier to predict.

Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, an MIT research scientist, is waiting a couple more weeks before making his forecast. He says an unprecedented El Niño is “a reason not be more confident, but less confident.”

“We have no real historical analog or precedent,” Cohen said. “When every meteorologist on the planet is on the same side, I get nervous. We’re not that good.”

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FILE - A person walks past ice covered trees Jan. 28, 2026, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV, File)

FILE - A man walks a dog down a road Feb. 23, 2026, in St. James, N.Y. (AP Photo/Heather Khalifa, File)

FILE - People take the Staten Island Ferry as ice floats on the Hudson River, Jan. 27, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, File)

FILE - A bike rider in shorts rolls past a couple walking at the town common in North Andover, Mass., Feb. 23, 2022. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File)

FILE - Pedestrians and cars pass through the Dumbo neighborhood of Brooklyn borough of New York, Feb. 24, 2026. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, File)

FILE - A person walks near the snow-covered sand at Lake Michigan in Chicago, Jan. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

Sunderland needed an injury-time goal from Noah Sadiki to beat Portuguese second-division side Torreense 2-1 in the Europa League on Thursday.

Alphadjo Cisse’s hat trick sparked Italian giant AC Milan's 4-0 rout of Salzburg and Leverkusen also cruised 4-0 past Lech Poznan after Patrik Schick scored twice from the penalty spot. But Crystal Palace lost 3-2 at Lyon.

Substitute Granit Xhaka set up Sadiki to volley home the winner in stoppage time and complete a comeback at the surprise winner of the Portuguese Cup.

Sunderland dominated play but its first European campaign since 1973 received a scare when Volnei Feltes gave goalkeeper Robin Roefs no chance with a perfect strike into the top corner in the 37th minute.

Jules Ahoka equalized after the visitors stepped up pressure in the second half.

Ruben Amorim’s Milan bounced back from a 2-0 defeat to Benfica at San Siro in the opening round.

The 19-year-old Cisse set the pace with an early header for a 1-0 lead and added his second from close range late in the first half.

He got his hat trick with a right-foot shot briefly after the interval and substitute Gonçalo Ramos completed the rout.

Salzburg made nothing of a one-man advantage after Milan defender Filippo Terracciano received a red card six minutes from time.

Lyon built a 2-0 first-half lead with captain Corentin Tolisso netting after 10 minutes from close range and Ghana winger Ernest Nuamah doubling the lead just before the break.

Yeremy Pino reduced the deficit early in the second half with a left-foot strike into the roof of the net. Substitute Pavel Šulc restored a two-goal advantage for the French side before Daichi Kamada scored the second for Palace.

Ismaïla Sarr started his first game of the season for the visitors.

Last season, Crystal Palace won the third-tier Conference League after its entry to the Europa League was blocked by UEFA because it shared ownership links with Lyon.

Later Thursday, Bournemouth hosts Sturm Graz in its first European home game.

After a 2-1 victory at Real Sociedad in the opening game of its maiden campaign, coach Marco Rose’s side has another chance to forget a winless start to the Premier League.

Israeli champion Hapoel Beer-Sheva was without its fans at its away game in Alkmaar after local authorities banned them from attending because of security reasons.

Alkmaar won 2-1.

Hapoel’s next away game at Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise on Oct. 22 will be played behind closed doors in Düsseldorf, Germany after authorities in Leuven banned the game due to public safety.

The game between Egnatia and Danish Midtjylland in the Conference League ended in a 1-1 draw after it was moved from Tirana to the city of Elbasan by UEFA amid massive anti-government protests in the capital of Albania.

French league leader Monaco won 2-1 away at CSKA Sofia and Hajduk Split upset Ajax 2-1.

Later Thursday, high-flying Brighton opens its Conference League campaign against Kauno Žalgiris.

English clubs have won three of the five editions of the Conference League.

See AP’s full soccer coverage here

Chelsea's Jordan Henderson, third from left, scores their side's first goal during the English Premier League match between Chelsea and Bournemouth in London, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026. (Adam Davy/PA via AP)