Drone strikes in the Black Sea raise fears of Russian escalation to test NATO's response

SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP) — A string of drone attacks on at least seven cargo vessels in the Black Sea this month, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, has some members of the alliance wondering if Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking escalation to test their support for Ukraine in its war against Moscow's full-scale invasion.

The attacks in the two countries' exclusive economic zones threaten a global shipping route and have left two people dead, with at least 25 still missing. They also run the risk of drawing other countries directly into the war for Ukraine.

Throughout the war, Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube river ports, leaving Kyiv increasingly reliant on alternative routes to get its grain exports to markets in Africa and the Middle East. Russian drones have repeatedly violated Romanian airspace near some of Ukraine's Danube ports.

In the latest incidents, fires broke out on two ships struck by drones Wednesday and Thursday, one in Romania's territorial waters.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan said Thursday in Brussels that “two drones” had hit the vessels but did not say whose drones they were. “There will be a reaction from the Romanian state,” he warned.

Increasingly, the suspicion falls on Russia. “There is no logic in Ukraine attacking its own ships and crews, given that the outcome of all these attacks favors Russia — and indeed, the logic points in that direction,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told his country’s Parliament.

“The problem is that we cannot prove it.”

The San Marino-flagged Wine Trader, a chemical tanker traveling from Tunisia to Romania, was struck by a drone Thursday and caught fire. Five crew members were rescued but another seven are missing.

On Wednesday, a drone strike and fire were reported on the Comoros-flagged Yara J, a chemical and oil tanker traveling from Turkey to Romania. Romania’s acting Defense Minister Radu Miruta said an investigation was underway.

On Tuesday, two ships were struck by drones off Bulgaria's coast. Rescuers evacuated all 15 crew members from the Ukraine-operated Chelsea 3, sailing under a Maltese flag, but 11 crew from the Guinea-Bissau-flagged HS Dignity are still missing.

The crew of the Chelsea 3 reported the ship’s deck and hull were hit by three aerial drones.

Earlier this month, sea and aerial drones attacked two other commercial vessels in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. A Togo-flagged ship sank with no sign of the 12 sailors reported on board, while a Bulgarian ferry evacuated 18 crew members from a Palau-flagged vessel that was damaged.

A day earlier, a Turkish-owned cargo ship carrying corn caught fire following a drone attack and later sank off the coast of Romania. Two people died and 11 crew members were rescued. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attack as “a horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel” in neutral waters.

Russia's ambassador in Sofia, Bulgaria, said she didn't have any information from the Russian defense ministry.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on X on Thursday that he met Radev and Dan to discuss security in the Black Sea and “the latest attacks on commercial shipping.”

“NATO has strengthened our posture along the eastern flank including with increasing counter-drone capabilities,” he said. “NATO will continue to work closely with our Allies in the Black Sea, adjusting our deterrence and defense posture as needed.”

Article 5 of the NATO charter has a mutual defense guarantee — an attack on one is an attack on all — but Romanian defense analyst Radu Tudor said it was uncertain as to whether it covers many of the Black Sea drone strikes because they occurred in the alliance members’ exclusive economic zones.

“It’s a matter of discussion whether the exclusive economic zone is included in the Article 5-type reaction or not,” he said. “And it seems that until now, it isn’t — which raised a lot of questions.”

NATO has been too slow to respond in the Black Sea, he argued.

“Tens of incidents are happening and Russia is getting closer to NATO borders. … Words are not enough,” Tudor said.

The Black Sea drone incidents in October are just the latest in a long string of drone airspace incursions to rock Romania and other NATO members since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While most have come from Russia, Ukrainian drones have also crossed borders.

In August, Romania deployed two F-16 fighter jets to destroy a naval drone that was reportedly carrying explosives and was spotted near a major Black Sea gas project, a decision that Acting Defense Minister Miruta said was made to “protect the lives of the several hundred people” working on the gas platform.

A source in Romania's defense sector, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the incidents, told The Associated Press that the attacks are designed to hurt Ukraine economically and that “Romania is not the target right now.”

“All summer we’ve been hunting all kinds of (drone) debris, water drones, sea drones, air drones, debris in the water, on the beaches,” they said. “If this continues … someone should do something about that.”

The source added they have heard Turkey “would like to summon all the riparian (Black Sea) states to plan a mission to escort these convoys” through a militarized safe corridor.

“I’m not sure about Turkish, but our Romanian vessels don’t have anti-air defense systems to protect against drones,” they said. “That would be a high risk for the Navy, for military vessels to escort this.”

In July, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey expanded the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Task Force naval pact to “expand the missions to the protection of critical submarine infrastructure,” according to Romania's defense ministry. It would include, it said, a permanent naval presence in Romania’s exclusive economic zone.

Many commercial vessels are flagged to one country and owned by a company based elsewhere.

“Why would Romania and Turkey escort a ship from Bermuda with, I don’t know, an Argentinian owner just to transport a few hundred tons of grains from Egypt?” the source said. “It’s difficult.”

Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said Wednesday that the country plans to join NATO’s Drone Edge project by the end of October. Launched in July, the initiative — which Romania also joined — aims to invest over $40 billion in “counter-drone capabilities” over the next five years.

Cezar Gheorghe, founder of grain consultancy firm Agricolumn, told the AP that the drone incidents have not negatively impacted trade at Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta. The main concern is a rise in insurance costs in the wider Black Sea, he said.

“The (premium) for the risk is increasing, ... everyone that wants to come to Constanta, let’s say from Turkey, from the Bosphorus Strait and across that area, will have a (premium) on insurance costs,” he said. He added his main concern is a “serious incident” occurring at or near Constanta. In June, a Ukrainian maritime drone exploded at the port, and three others nearby.

“It’s a matter of time,” he said.

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McGrath reported from Leamington Spa, England.

FILE - A Romanian naval serviceman guards onboard the M-270 Mine-hunter during a Romanian Navy led exercise outside Constanta, Romania, Tuesday, April 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru, File)

FILE - Romanian naval servicemen stand next to a gun onboard the M-270 Mine-hunter during a Romanian Navy led exercise outside Constanta, Romania, on April 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru, File)

FILE - Romanian warships sail during a Romanian Navy led exercise outside Constanta, Romania, on April 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru, File)

FILE - Romanian warships sail engulfed in smoke during a Romanian Navy led exercise outside Constanta, Romania, on April 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru, File)

At a packed rally in Texas on Thursday, James Talarico compared his U.S. Senate campaign to David — who fought Goliath — as the Democrat faces more than $158 million in outside spending by Republican leadership and the world's richest man, Elon Musk.

Talarico told rallygoers under bright lights that David may not have had Goliath's strength, but he had a slingshot.

“You are my slingshot," he continued, without mentioning Musk or the other spending against him. "We are going up against our own Goliaths.”

The description falls in line with Talarico's past rhetoric painting politics not as right versus left, but the ultrawealthy versus everyone else, as he tries to become the first Democrat to win statewide in over 30 years. Talarico's own campaign has raised record amounts of money in one of the nation's more expensive and competitive Senate races.

The national conversation around Talarico’s campaign has evolved over the past months. Initially, the state lawmaker was considered just the latest of several Democratic candidates over the past years who gave the party a hope of flipping Texas, only for that hope to deflate come Election Day.

Now, Talarico is seen as a real contender to win the seat against Republican candidate Ken Paxton. Talarico’s success so far can partly be chalked up to voters’ apprehensions toward Paxton, who faced questions in his past over corruption, including being impeached by his own party in the Texas legislature. He was later acquitted.

While outside spending in support of Paxton has flooded the Texas airwaves with ads, Talarico's campaign itself has outpaced Paxton's in fundraising from donors eager for Texas to forgo its solidly Republican title.

The prospect of a flagship GOP state turning blue doesn't just fill Democrats with glee and Republicans with alarm. Whoever wins will help determine which party controls the Senate in President Donald Trump's final two years in office, making it either smooth sailing for Trump or a bog of investigations and opposition.

Talarico, a seminarian and state representative, has also tread a very careful path — as nonpartisan as he can — from the major metros that already tilt Democratic, along the border towns that flipped from blue to red last election, and to the rural Republican high plains and desert.

The candidate has distanced himself from former President Joe Biden's administration and his own party, and while progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders is coming to Texas this month, he won't be sharing a stage with Talarico.

Talarico's strategy is to take direct aim at what voters say they are most concerned about: the costs that have inexorably grown for years. That unaffordability, Talarico argued at the nighttime rally in Texas that was packed with younger voters, is because billionaires and corrupt politicians have rigged the system. It resonated.

“They think that they can buy us, and that they can essentially be the kings of the country,” said Kaitlyn Johnson, a 29-year-old bartender who attended the rally.

Johnson felt that Talarico put words to that feeling she'd held for a while, and the high costs keep nagging at her, too.

“I make decent money,” she said, “but there's no way in hell that I'm going to be able to buy a house anytime soon.”

Trump and Republicans are well aware of Talarico's ability to connect with voters, and of Paxton's struggles to find purchase in what would otherwise be a relatively easy race for a Republican. The president has made several trips to Texas to rally for Paxton.

Paxton has received significant financial support from Musk, who last year headed Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency. Musk contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, federal campaign spending filings showed Thursday. The Senate Leadership Fund gave $158 million to Texas PAC, the largest contributor to Paxton’s campaign.

Musk also provided $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, a group that supports Paxton.

The rally Thursday in the small city of San Marcos south of Austin follows nine days earlier this month when Talarico was out of the public eye due to the flu. His absence sparked a swirl of conspiracies online, including the false claim that he was at a mental health treatment center in Ohio. Shared by conservative social media influencers, the claim quickly fell apart at closer inspection.

President Donald Trump listens as Republican U.S. Senate candidate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at a campaign rally at the Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Supporters listen to Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Texas state Rep. James Talarico speaks during a campaign event in San Marcos, Texas, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Texas state Rep. James Talarico waves as he leaves a campaign event in San Marcos, Texas, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Texas state Rep. James Talarico speaks during a campaign event in San Marcos, Texas, Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

FILE - Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Texas state Rep. James Talarico speaks during a television interview at a food drive at the Frederick Douglass Human Services and Justice Center, Sept. 9, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)