Corruption is a top concern for Brazilian voters ahead of runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Corruption is a top concern for many Brazilian voters ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff between far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and left-leaning Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. But experts say its greatest impact may not be on which candidates voters choose, but on whether they decide to sit out of the election altogether.

In the minds of many Brazilians, both candidates are associated with graft. Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion, while Lula spent 19 months in prison on corruption and money laundering charges that were later annulled.

For those who strongly support either candidate, such alleged ties will do little to curb their enthusiasm. But experts say that a generalized perception of corruption can increase abstention and anti-incumbency sentiment, potentially benefiting Bolsonaro, who received 2.2 million more votes than Lula in the first round.

Here’s a look at how corruption could impact Brazil's presidential runoff.

During the first round, many lined up to cast their votes wearing either red hats and T-shirts — signaling support for Lula’s party — or the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag adopted by Bolsonaro’s movement, reflecting the polarization gripping the country.

Supporters of Bolsonaro and Lula are highly distrustful of the other side and view their opponents as a threat. Such voters are less likely to give weight to allegations of corruption, experts say.

“We have a great ability to filter information that goes against our beliefs,” said Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco. “People don’t want to discover the truth about their candidates, they want to beat the opponent.”

Camila Tobji de Aquino, a 19-year-old student of pedagogy and psychology, thinks that corruption is a cross-partisan issue and a significant problem in Brazil. But her main concern is what she sees as the threat Flávio Bolsonaro poses to democracy.

“If I were to vote only for a candidate not tied to any corruption, I would vote blank,” she said. “But that’s not the choice Brazil is facing. For me it’s a question of being able to vote in the next election.”

A wide-ranging scandal involving politicians and judges at Brazil’s Supreme Court dominated headlines ahead of the presidential election, placing corruption at the heart of public debate.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who chaired the legal case that put former President Jair Bolsonaro in prison for his attempted coup, is suspected of having ties to the former head of the failed Banco Master bank, as is Flávio Bolsonaro. Both have denied wrongdoing.

For many Brazilians, the Banco Master scandal stirs up memories of Operation Car Wash, the largest corruption and money-laundering investigation in Brazilian history that ensnared dozens of politicians after it was launched in 2014.

Repeated corruption scandals may drive up abstention and affect undecided voters, said Laura Chelidonopoulos, who has studied corruption and is a political science PhD candidate at the University of Pittsburgh. “People become disenchanted with politics,” she said. “They have less motivation to actually choose between one of these two sides.”

More than 33 million people, or 21% of the electorate, did not vote on Oct. 4, the highest first-round abstention rate since 1998. First-round abstention has risen gradually since 2006, according to data from Brazil’s electoral court.

José Tainan, a 36-year-old kitchen assistant from Rio de Janeiro's Penha complex of favelas, said he struggled to remember when he last voted in an election, but thinks it was probably for Lula back in the 2000s.

He cited corruption as the top reason why he stopped voting.

“There are no good options. Neither one of them suits me. I would rather justify why I didn’t vote,” he said.

Voting is mandatory for citizens aged 18 to 70. Those who fail to vote without a valid reason face a small fine.

Matusalem Aguiar, a 54-year-old taxi driver from Rio's impoverished Belford Roxo municipality, said he would prefer that only candidates with clean records be allowed to enter politics. Still, he will disregard the graft investigations faced by Bolsonaro and vote for him anyway.

“There needs to be a change,” Aguiar said, as he waited for his next passenger in downtown Rio. “Some people have a lot of power and they’re not managing the country in the right way.”

Follow AP’s coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, left, who is running for reelection, gestures as he speaks to opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro during a televised presidential debate one week before the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, front, who is running for reelection, gestures toward his face as opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro stands behind him during a televised presidential debate one week before the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, front, who is running for reelection, and opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro hold their hands together during a televised presidential debate one week before the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, speaks and gestures during a televised presidential debate one week before the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

Opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro raises his fists in celebration at the end of a televised presidential debate one week before the presidential runoff election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)

TOLEDO, Ohio (AP) — House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday the election climate is holding firm for Democrats as he campaigned for Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a heavily contested Ohio congressional district that is crucial for majority control of the House.

Jeffries also slapped back at President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to waive sanctions on Russia and said there will be a bipartisan effort in the House to pursue a new sanctions package that the president would not have the ability to waive.

“It’s shocking, but not surprising, that an American president would do so much to undermine the cause of democracy, freedom and dignity for the Ukrainian people,” Jeffries told The Associated Press after visiting church services in Toledo.

Jeffries, who is in line to become House speaker if Democrats win back the majority, has traveled to some 50 cities campaigning for Democratic candidates. He said the House Republicans are “divorced from reality” in thinking — as Speaker Mike Johnson recently suggested — that the Nov. 3 election will be a repeat of the 2024 sweep that put Trump in the White House and Republicans in Congress.

“The climate continues to hold firm,” Jeffries said, about the Democrats' chances.

“We are working hard across the country, continuing to make the case that we need dramatic change as opposed to the status quo," he said, "and that Democrats are going to be the only ones to fight to make this country affordable.”

The Buckeye State is being fiercely contested in these midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. While much attention has been on the Senate race between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown, the House races are a district-by-district slog key to unlocking control of that chamber.

The Toldeo-area House seat has been a top priority. Kaptur, who has held office for decades, is the longest-serving woman in the House. But Trump has carried the district and Republicans are trying to flip it. Kaptur defeated GOP candidate Derek Merrin two years ago, but he is making a repeat play for the seat.

“We work very hard,” Kaptur told AP. “We don’t just work at elections. We work to make a difference in the lives of people.”

In August, Kaptur, 80, was heading to church when the vehicle she was riding in as a passenger was struck. She was hospitalized with injuries suffered in the car accident, but said she has since recovered.

Jeffries said Kaptur is a legendary figure in the Great Lakes Region. “Once again, she's going to defy all expectations,” he said.

The area has been home to a large Ukrainian American population, and Kaptur is founder and co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, a bipartisan group of lawmakers with particular focus on the country.

She had harsh words for Trump’s decision late Friday to waive provisions of the Russia sanctions bill named for Lindsey Graham, which Congress had passed to help Ukraine as it battles Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

“What he did is just un-American,” she said. “He has sided with Putin.”

Members of Congress, Democrats and Republicans, expressed outrage over the weekend at Trump’s decision to waive the sanctions, which were due to take effect Sunday. The president had just signed the bill into law last month.

Johnson said Sunday on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that a number of his colleagues have raised concerns. He said he had yet to talk about it with Trump, but said he knows the president is evaluating the situation.

“We need to talk about it and I think carefully consider the unintended consequences,” Johnson said.

In this photo taken with a smart phone, Rep. Marcy Kaptur, from right, attends church services with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries as they campaign for the midterm elections, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, in battleground Toledo, Ohio. (AP Photo/Lisa Mascaro)

In this photo taken with a smart phone, Rep. Marcy Kaptur, left, and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries walk before a church services as they campaign for the midterm elections, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, in battleground Toledo, Ohio. (AP Photo/Lisa Mascaro)