Denny Hamlin says Toyota needs a 'deep dive' into drought as Kyle Larson eyes another NASCAR title

HOMESTEAD, Fla. (AP) — Denny Hamlin believes his chances of celebrating an elusive Cup Series championship Sunday are akin to winning the lottery.

“Can you really count on that?” he quipped.

Since Kyle Larson is pretty much a sure bet to secure his second consecutive title and third in six years with Hendrick Motorsports, Hamlin has essentially moved on to 2027. Sure, he would love to win the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway and close out 2026 on a high note.

But he also is ready to delve into what went wrong for Toyota, which has a series-leading 18 victories through 35 races and was a heavy favorite to claim the Bill France Cup when the Chase for the championship began in September.

“It needs to be looked at,” Hamlin said. “We have to figure out that the win ratio to the championship ratio has just not been as good as it needs to be. That needs to be a deep dive and honestly figure out what needs to be changed.

“I don’t think we should just rinse and repeat, and let’s just do this all again next year. We really should think about what it’s going to take to win the big prize at the end because our cars are too fast for there to be just a few.”

Toyota has three Cup championships in 20 years in NASCAR, with Kyle Busch winning two (2015, 2019) and Martin Truex Jr. notching the other in 2017. Toyota has come close a bunch of times since, none of those as gut-wrenching as Hamlin’s runner-up finish last year.

But the manufacturer has never endured a season like this, where it enjoyed two stretches in which it won seven of nine races — and even won three in a row in the playoffs — only to get all-but-eliminated before the finale.

It’s a huge credit to Larson, who delivered a postseason run for the ages. Larson won three times in the Chase and finished eight of the nine events inside the top 10 – a staggering surge in which he essentially lapped the field.

Larson holds a 67-point lead over Christopher Bell — he is 70 points ahead of Hamlin — and needs only nine points Sunday to secure his third championship. He gets one point for starting the race and could have it wrapped up based on where he finishes the opening stage.

Even if Larson struggles — unlikely considering he has two wins and six top-five finishes in 12 starts at Homestead — either Bell or Hamlin would need to accumulate significant points to catch him. The maximum number of points for a race is 76.

“I don’t have any optimism,” Hamlin said.

Larson’s cushion has removed most of the drama from the finale, which returned to Homestead this season after six years in Phoenix. NASCAR didn’t even require Bell and Hamlin to show for championship media day Thursday.

It was, in essence, the first parade lap for Larson.

Bell and Hamlin addressed their long-shot scenarios the following day. For Hamlin, it was part of another disappointing end to a season.

He looked like he was going to win his first Cup title last year. Driving in his 21st full season, the guy widely considered the greatest NASCAR driver to never win a championship was the sentimental favorite and had a seemingly insurmountable lead with three laps to go.

But William Byron blew a tire, bringing out a caution flag and sending the race into overtime. It forced teams to make critical decisions about pitting. Hamlin’s crew put on four new tires, but Larson took just two and took the lead on pit road.

In a two-lap sprint to the finish, Hamlin couldn’t catch Larson and was devastated afterward.

“I felt like last year was like a sudden death, and this one was just a slow bleed,” Hamlin said. “I just was in shock (last year). … Then this year, through each playoff race, I’m on the way home thinking: ‘Gosh, it's all right, though. We’ll have to just make up for it next week.’ …

“This one was definitely a cut to the wrist and just watch it bleed.”

And now he’s gambling on finding some answers in the offseason that might help him win a title in what he has said would be his last season.

“Most of my career I’ve had fast cars capable of winning championships, but if anyone really did a deep dive in the sea, what happened in the playoffs or Chase for the 11 (car) year after year, it’s an anomaly of things that just doesn’t make sense, that just don’t happen.

“That’s just unfortunate. … It’s so frustrating because you know that you’re definitely capable, but you have to still play the game. No one’s going to go out there and score for you.”

See AP’s full auto racing coverage here

Kyle Larson (5) steers through Turn 3 during a NASCAR Cup Series auto race, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Martinsville, Va. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)

Kyle Larson, top right, celebrates with his children Owen, Audrey, and Cooper after his win in a NASCAR Cup Series auto race, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, in Talladega, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Kyle Larson films with a crew in front of the championship trophy, the Bill France Cup, during media day for the NASCAR Championship, Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026, at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

The pit crew for Denny Hamlin rushes to complete a pit stop during a NASCAR Cup Series auto race, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Martinsville, Va. (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)

LONDON (AP) — For Joe Reeve, the midterm afterglow faded fast.

The London startup founder was among the wave around the Trump-weary world awakening to the stunning news that Americans had sharply rejected President Donald Trump's fist-in-the-eye stewardship of the United States that had started a war with Iran, forged no peace in Ukraine or the Mideast and made gas and food so expensive.

Voters, Reeve saw online, had flipped control of both houses of Congress, handing the power to check the president to his rival Democrats. American democracy, 250 years on, had survived the Trump era.

But a deep and profound distrust of the United States had survived the vote, too. And from national leaders to aspiring American immigrants, no one seemed confident that change was afoot.

“What everybody’s learned,” Reeve, 29, the husband of a Ukrainian, said a day later in an interview, “is that America’s system does allow for these wild swings. We all know, now, that America has an ability to rotate on a dime and spit in our faces.”

Interviews by The Associated Press around the world since the vote revealed a sense that “one election alone does not restore anything,” as Kim So-jung, 49, an office worker in Yongin, South Korea, put it. “We have to see what they actually do, and see that they are doing something different to gain at least a little trust back.”

That 77 million Americans voted to elect Trump to a second term, along with the administration's combative conduct on his tariff war, Israel's conduct in Gaza, immigration and Iran, had already shaken trust in America around the world.

By the time Americans awakened Wednesday, global leaders and regular people from Europe to Australia had moved beyond the “wow” to a reckoning with the reality that Trump still retains enormous powers.

“Quite frankly, Trump has largely governed without Congress for the past two years. Why should that change now?" German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a few hours after voters flipped control of the House and Senate.

Trump's apparent detachment from the results and his focus on building projects in the days before and after the drubbing did little to calm speculation about how he governs. He could dissociate completely, some observers said. Or he could lean into foreign policy and become even less predictable.

"For the country's allies, the question isn't whether America is back,” Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, wrote in Think China. “It's back to what — and for how long?”

The stunning midterm elections were not enough to reverse policies that have strained economies and finances and put dreams of making it in America on hold for many across the globe.

Trump's tariff war has roiled markets and economies. He canceled humanitarian aid for millions and upended the world's postwar order. Under Trump, American immigration policy turned violent and deadly — and makes the U.S. look to many like a place better avoided.

There was no sign of Trump letting up. On Friday, he promoted longtime aide Stephen Miller, a key architect of his hard-line immigration policy, to replace Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff.

“I don’t think all is forgiven,” ReadtheLine.ca Editor Jen Gerson said during an online discussion Thursday. “The President’s hold on power over two terms is — and ought to remain — a warning sign to Canada and to all of America’s allies.”

America's political and economic uncertainty can affect businesses like Synetica, an Indonesian tech company, one of its business development managers said.

“For me, regaining trust means seeing America consistently respect democratic institutions, the rule of law and its international partners,” Aditya Surya, 40, of Yogyakarta, Indonesia, told the AP. “The election is a good start, but what happens next matters a lot more."

Many eyes are trained on whether the Democrats can reverse Trump's costly tariff regime as the incoming majority has promised in its 100 days agenda — and whether Trump accepts or vetoes any such changes.

Hamish McIntyre, an Australian beef producer, suspects not. With a Southern Hemisphere spring harvest underway in parts of Australia, farmers are grappling with diesel prices inflated by the Iran war, contributing to what the government forecasts will be a 39% drop in large farm profits.

“The midterm result is unlikely, in itself, to fundamentally change the direction of U.S. tariff policy,” said McIntyre, president of the National Farmers' Federation agricultural advocacy group. The election, he added, does not “prevent the administration from continuing to pursue its broader trade agenda.”

Ivan Slatkine, president of the Federation of Romandie Enterprises in French-speaking Switzerland, said he's heartened that the election showed America's institutions remain robust. That's worth some confidence, he added.

But.

“Let us not be naive,” Slatkine said. "The ‘America First’ concept is not going to be abandoned anytime soon, and I doubt the new majority will reverse all the decisions made by the president.”

Hong Kong businessman Danny Lau gained some hope from the elections. More than 30% of the orders received by his aluminum-coating factory in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan come from American clients. But his business was paying a tariff of nearly 81%.

“Trump started the tariff war,” Lau said. “If he loses his influence, would that help at all on the tariff front? At the very least, hopefully he won't raise them any further.”

Michael Lu, CEO of gift-box producer Brothersbox in southern China, said he believed political tensions remain elevated, particularly after Washington's earlier trade war against China. But no matter who won the midterms, he didn't expect drastic changes in Washington's overall stance against China. The U.S. accounts for roughly 20% of Lu's company’s business.

The political shift in the U.S. doesn't change the fact that “continuing to strengthen the alliance and economic relations with the U.S. is essential for Japan,” said Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chairman of Keidanren, the Japan Business Federation, a lobby group that represents 1,500 companies. He said he expects Trump to come out even stronger, not weaker, with the Democrats in control of Congress.

Ambika, an Indian citizen who asked to be identified only by her last name, works in IT in America and has long yearned to make America her permanent home. But Trump's immigration crackdown and latest green card restrictions have given her pause.

“Recent visa policy changes have left me worried,” she said this week while visiting family in India. “I don't know if ... the midterm results would lead to any policy change that could benefit those of us who want to move to the U.S.”

There's no more accurate look at how America is changing than U.S. elections. And these midterms produced the biggest shift in political power since the post-Watergate election of 1974.

But what now?

“Time and again, we are presented with these chances for change, only for greed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory,” U.K.-based commentator Martin McSweeney wrote on his “Truth Matters” Substack at 5 a.m. the day after the election. “Will this time be different? That's up to the American people, and that makes me very nervous given past experience.”

This story has been corrected to reflect that the name of Ian Bremmer’s organization is Eurasia Group, not Eurasian Group.

Associated Press writers across the globe contributed to this report. They include: Kanis Leung and Thomas Chan in Hong Kong, Rod McGuirk in Melbourne, Sheikh Saaliq in New Delhi, Kim Tong-hyung in Seoul, South Korea, Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo, Edna Tarigan in Jakarta, and Jamey Keaten in Geneva.

FILE - President Donald Trump speaks before signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, file)

FILE - People participate in a "No Kings" protest against U.S. President Donald Trump near the U.S. embassy in Ottawa on Saturday, June 14, 2025. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP, file)