Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress

Global carbon pollution dropped this year ever so slightly, but it's more because of oil shocks reverberating from the Iran war than anything the world has done to fight climate change, scientists said in a new study.

In 2026, the world emitted 42.2 billion tons (38.2 billion metric tons) of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. It’s a 0.4% decrease from last year, according to the scientists of the Global Carbon Project, which publishes its estimates in the journal Earth System Science Data Discussions.

“It’s downwards which sounds good, but this is largely driven by the war in Iran, what’s happened in the Strait of Hormuz,” said study co-author Glen Peters, a scientist at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway. “So in a way, a little bit of good news, but for the wrong reasons.”

The war in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery for petroleum products, pushing up global prices of gasoline and oil.

They found oil emissions dropped nearly 2% and natural gas fell 0.3%, while coal was up 0.6%.

The international team of more than 140 scientists use data from around the world to calculate the yearly emissions figure, with estimates for the last few months of the year, and then present them at the U.N. climate negotiations in Antalya, Turkey. Peters said they are certain that this was related to the war-triggered energy shocks because of both the timing and type of fuel emission drops.

If the overall carbon dioxide emission drop were due solely to a rise in renewables and a systemic drop in fossil fuel use, oil emissions “would slowly come up to a peak and then slowly decline afterward, whereas what we see this year is oil emissions are going up and then suddenly BANG, down 2%,” Peters said.

This is the third time global carbon pollution dropped in the 21st century. The other two times were because of the global recession in 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

In those past two crises, people hoped the recovery from the shocks would emphasize clean energy, Peters said, "but at the end of the day, we seem to go back to where we were before.”

Outside experts greeted the figures with a mix of hope and skepticism that it will last.

Niklas Höhne, co-founder of Germany’s NewClimate Institute, said “permanent shifts are happening” especially with skyrocketing switches to electric cars and trucks, especially in Asia. So he thinks the global peak of carbon emissions is near or here.

But Malte Mienshausen, a climate science and policy expert at the University of Melbourne in Australia, said oil producing nations and companies not affected by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz reaped “tremendous windfall gains,” and it boosts their efforts to look for oil outside the Middle East. That, he said, will dampen any short-term effects of reduced carbon emissions from the war.

The 42 billion tons of carbon dioxide emitted this year comes to about 1,335 tons (1,211 metric tons) of the transparent, heat-trapping gas going into the air every second.

“We shouldn’t lose sight of the bigger picture. The world is still pumping more than a thousand (metric tons) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every second," Mohamed Adow, director of the environmental group Power Shift Africa, said in an email.

“It’s very abstract to think about the magnitude of stuff we throw in the atmosphere every year, but it’s a ginormous number,” Peters said. “If it was black and not transparent, the sky would be dark.”

And even though the amount of heat-trapping gases from fossil fuels dropped slightly, overall global carbon dioxide emissions went up 1%. That's because of land use changes, such as deforestation and human-caused peat fires, that increased faster than fossil fuel burning decreased, the study said.

Most of the world's biggest carbon polluting nations — China, the United States, Europe, Japan — showed about a 1% drop in emissions this year, but Peters attributed it to the oil shock. India's fossil fuel pollution went up 4.4% this year, the study found.

China's emission drop raised eyebrows and hope for some experts. Experts have been waiting for China's ever-growing emissions to start dropping.

“China is giving us real reasons to be optimistic that its emissions may have peaked," Adow said. “It’s building the world’s first major electrostate, investing at extraordinary speed and scale in solar power, wind energy, electric vehicles and the infrastructure to support them. This isn’t a temporary response to an oil crisis. It’s a fundamental transformation of China’s economy that is steadily reducing its dependence on fossil fuels.”

University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck said, “We're not phasing out fossil fuels fast enough, but some progress is better than no progress.”

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

FILE - Liberia-flagged tanker Shenlong Suezmax, carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia, that arrived clearing the Strait of Hormuz, is visible at the Mumbai Port in Mumbai, India, Thursday, March 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool, File)

FILE - An oil pumpjack operates on Lake Maracaibo in Cabimas, Venezuela, Sept. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos, File)

FILE - Solar panels operate at the Dalad Banner Photovoltaic Top Runner Base in northern China's Inner Mongolia province, June 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

FILE - A barge is loaded with coal on the Mahakam River in Samarinda, East Kalimantan, Indonesia, Aug. 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Ahmad Mulia Panjaitan, File)

FILE - The coal-fired Mountaineer Power Plant, near New Haven, W.Va., operates across the Ohio River from the Lock 24 RV Park and Campground in Racine, Ohio, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

TORONTO (AP) — Carey Price first visited the Hockey Hall of Fame as a teenager.

The longtime Montreal Canadiens goaltender joked over the weekend he wouldn’t mind trying one of the interactive games — specifically featuring a netminder sporting very familiar equipment — that sits among the many tributes to the sport’s history.

“It’s pretty special to be able to look around,” Price said before adding with a smile: “I was hoping to get the chance to shoot on myself downstairs.”

The 39-year-old was once at the pinnacle of his craft. Now he’s taken his place alongside the game’s greats.

Price was inducted into the hall as part of the 2026 class alongside Patrice Bergeron, Pekka Rinne, Keith Tkachuk and Cindy Curley in the player category Monday. Brian Burke was enshrined as a builder.

“When I was a kid, I had a dream that I can vividly remember,” Price, who played all 15 of his NHL seasons for the Canadiens, said during his speech in downtown Toronto. “I was walking down a red carpet, just like in the Bell Centre. As I was walking, I approached a mountain of a figure.

“It was Patrick Roy, the very image of what I wanted to be.”

The No. 5 pick of the 2005 draft, Price won the Hart Trophy as league MVP and the Vezina Trophy as its top goaltender in 2015.

He finished with a 361-261-79 record, .917 save percentage, 2.51 goals-against average and 49 shutouts across 712 games in a career cut short by injury.

Price had even better numbers in high-pressure moments before a knee issue ended his playing days beyond the 2021-22 campaign. He owned a .919 save percentage, 2.39 GAA and eight shutouts in 92 playoff games. He was at his best during his final postseason, carrying the underdog Canadiens to the 2021 Stanley Cup final.

“All I can ever really remember wanting to be was a hockey player,” said an emotional Price, who was in his second year of eligibility. “Growing up in a remote community, there was a very slim chance of this happening without a relentless desire and an opportunity.

“That opportunity was provided with sacrifice. As a parent of a young family, I now understand what the biggest of many was — it was time.”

The 41-year-old Bergeron, a record-setting six-time Selke Trophy winner as the NHL’s top defensive forward after being selected 45th overall in 2003, helped the Boston Bruins to a Cup victory in 2011.

The center had 1,040 points (427 goals 613 assists) in 1,294 regular-season games. He added 128 points in 170 playoff games before retiring in 2023.

“I hope my journey inspires future generations to dream big (and) believe in themselves,” said Bergeron, who spent all 19 of his NHL seasons with Boston, including the final three as captain. “And never stop chasing those dreams.”

Price, who also won the Ted Lindsay Award as the league’s most outstanding player voted on by the NHL Players' Association in 2015, and Bergeron enjoyed success representing Canada together.

The duo was on the 2014 Olympic team that topped the field before capturing the World Cup of Hockey two years later. Bergeron also claimed gold at the 2010 Games on home soil to go along with victories at the 2005 world junior hockey championship and the 2004 men’s worlds.

“To the boys, I have enough memories to last three lifetimes,” Price said of his teammates. “I wish I could do it all over again. Thank you for clearing the front of the net, blocking shots and backchecking.

“As a forward now, I do none of these things.”

Rinne, 43, finished with a 369-213-75 record in 15 seasons with the Nashville Predators. The 2018 Vezina winner from Finland — selected 258th overall in 2004 — had a .917 save percentage, 2.43 GAA and 60 shutouts in 683 regular-season games.

“If there’s something that I want to pass on to any young athlete who’s watching tonight, it’s this: You don’t have to be the most highly touted prospect,” he said. “You don’t have to have everything figured out when you’re young. Your path doesn’t have to look like anyone else’s.

“Mine certainly didn’t.”

Curley captained the U.S. to three silver medals at the women’s worlds in the 1990s.

“I’m often called the pioneer, but I’d like to think I just grew up with women’s hockey,” said the 62-year-old. “Hockey is a very special game that gave so much more to me than I could ever give back.”

Burke had a management career that included stops with the Hartford Whalers, Vancouver Canucks, Anaheim Mighty Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames and Pittsburgh Penguins following a stint at the league office.

“When I first got the call from the selection committee, I paused,” said the 71-year-old, who won the Cup with Anaheim in 2007. “Nobody starts playing hockey at 13 years old in Minnesota and says, ‘Someday I’m going to be in the Hockey Hall of Fame.’

“Unless you’re an idiot.”

Tkachuk registered 1,065 points (538 goals, 527 assists) in 1,201 games in 18 seasons.

“This game has welcomed me at every level,” said the 54-year-old. “I accept this honor with gratitude to everyone who has been part of my journey.

“I am honored to be here tonight — and now forever.”

See AP’s full NHL coverage here

Carey Price speaks after being welcomed into the Hockey Hall of Fame, in Toronto, on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026. (Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press via AP)

Keith Tkachuk, center, is welcomed into the Hockey Hall of Fame by Hockey Hall of Fame selection committee chair Ron Francis, left, and chairman Mike Gartner, in Toronto, on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026. (Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press via AP)

Carey Price, center, is welcomed into the Hockey Hall of Fame by Hockey Hall of Fame selection committee chair Ron Francis, left, and chairman Mike Gartner, in Toronto, on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026. (Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press via AP)

From left, Cindy Curley, Pekka Rinne, Patrice Bergeron, Brian Burke, Carey Price and Keith Tkachuk take part in the Hockey Hall of Fame Game before an NHL hockey game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New Jersey Devils in Toronto, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)

The Hockey Hall of Fame's 2026 inductees Keith Tkachuk, left to right, Pekka Rinne, Carey Price, Cindy Curley, Patrice Bergeron and Brian Burke pose for a photograph in Toronto, on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026. (Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press via AP)