Putin looks for quick win, but voter apathy worries Kremlin

Russia's presidential election campaign formally lasts only three months, and President Vladimir Putin wants to make it as short as possible.

With Putin's approval rating topping 80 percent, there is little doubt about the outcome of the March 18 vote.

Instead, voter apathy represents the main challenge for his strategists, who want his showing to be as strong as ever to demonstrate that public support for Putin hasn't waned 18 years after his first election.

FILE - In this Thursday, Dec. 14, 2017 file photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to a question during his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia. Russia. Russian lawmakers on Friday, Dec, 15 set the presidential election for March 18, a move that formally sets in motion campaigning for a race that Putin is all but certain to win. Voter apathy is the main challenge for Putin’s strategists, who want to make his result as strong as ever to prove that public support for the Russian leader hasn’t withered 18 years after his first election. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)

In an apparent bid to drum up interest and make a bland race as short as possible to keep voters mobilized, the 65-year-old president waited until last week to declare his intent to run again.

It's not clear yet how Putin will focus his campaign, which was formally opened Friday by the upper house of parliament.

Ahead of the 2012 vote, he ran a highly polarizing campaign amid a wave of massive demonstrations in Moscow against his rule. He denounced middle-class protesters as spoiled stooges of the West and relied heavily on support from blue-collar workers and state employees.

Now, in the absence of major protests, Putin can afford to be more benign.

The 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine bolstered his support, which has remained high despite a plunge in living standards under a combined blow of a drop in oil prices and Western sanctions.

FILE - In this Thursday, Feb. 23, 2017 file photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow, Russia. Russian lawmakers on Friday, Dec, 15 set the presidential election for March 18, a move that formally sets in motion campaigning for a race that Putin is all but certain to win. Voter apathy is the main challenge for Putin’s strategists, who want to make his result as strong as ever to prove that public support for the Russian leader hasn’t withered 18 years after his first election (AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev, file)

"Even very moderate people never really reconciled themselves after the end of the Soviet Union with Crimea being lost," said Moscow Carnegie Center director Dmitri Trenin. "They always thought it was unfair. And Putin had the guts ... to give it back to Russia without spilling a drop of blood."

Some pundits expected Putin to use Russia's ban from the Winter Olympics in South Korea to further fuel anti-Western sentiments by announcing a boycott of the games, and thus mobilize his base. Instead, he took a soft stance, encouraging Russia's athletes to compete under the Olympic flag.

His announcement of a partial troop pullout from Syria after a two-year campaign that secured Russia's position as a key power broker in the Middle East also plays well into his campaign.

"Putin has a broad backing across all social groups, which is linked to popular support for his foreign policy achievements," said Lev Gudkov, the head of the Levada-Center opinion survey agency, a leading independent pollster. "The propaganda has shaped his image as the national leader who has restored Russia's great power status."

FILE - In this Saturday, Nov. 29, 2003 file photo, Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, speaks to Ksenia Sobchak, daughter of former St. Petersburg mayor Anatoly Sobchak at a cemetery in St. Petersburg, Russia. Russian lawmakers on Friday, Dec, 15 set the presidential election for March 18, a move that formally sets in motion campaigning for a race that Putin is all but certain to win. Voter apathy is the main challenge for Putin’s strategists, who want to make his result as strong as ever to prove that public support for the Russian leader hasn’t withered 18 years after his first election (Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, file)

Gudkov said polls show Putin's popularity is strongest in rural areas and small towns where most people rely on state-run TV for news. His broad support is rooted in a lack of real political competition, he said.

"The political field has been fully cleared," Gudkov said. "Putin completely dominates the information space."

Veterans of past elections — Communist chief Gennady Zyuganov, ultranationalist leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky and liberal Grigory Yavlinsky — all declared their intention to run. But the parties led by Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky represent only token opposition in parliament, voting consistently with the Kremlin line. Yavlinsky's party, which mostly relies on middle-aged liberal-minded urban voters, failed to make it to parliament in past elections.

In 2012, 65 percent of eligible voters turned out and Putin won nearly 64 percent. This time, the turnout is expected to be lower, Gudkov said.

FILE - In this Thursday, Dec. 14, 2017 file photo, celebrity TV host Ksenia Sobchak, who wants to challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin in the March 18 presidential election, is seen at a big screen as she asks a question during Putin's annual news conference in Moscow, Russia. Russian lawmakers on Friday, Dec, 15 set the presidential election for March 18, a move that formally sets in motion campaigning for a race that Putin is all but certain to win. Voter apathy is the main challenge for Putin’s strategists, who want to make his result as strong as ever to prove that public support for the Russian leader hasn’t withered 18 years after his first election (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)

In the Urals city of Nizhny Tagil, which was dubbed "Putingrad" by some for its strong support of the president in the last election, members of the local branch of the Young Guard, a pro-Kremlin youth group, worry about voter apathy. They are campaigning to shore up his support.

"There is a great fight going on, not only for resources today, but also in terms of information," said its 18-year-old deputy chief, Dmitriy Ardy.

Charismatic anti-corruption crusader Alexei Navalny, who challenged Putin with a series of recent protests, is a fresh and widely recognized face that would provide an interesting opponent in the race, but the Kremlin does not want him on the ballot, fearing that would further expand his clout.

Putin mocked Navalny during the annual presidential news conference Thursday, casting him as a man who would plunge Russia into chaos. Navalny has been barred from running because of an embezzlement conviction, which the 41-year-old opposition leader calls politically motivated.

Enter Ksenia Sobchak, a celebrity TV host and socialite famous for her lavish lifestyle, sharp tongue and quick wit.

FILE - In this Friday, Nov. 17, 2017 file photo, Russian presidential hopeful Ksenia Sobchak speaks during a meeting in Moscow, Russia. Russian lawmakers on Friday, Dec, 15 set the presidential election for March 18, a move that formally sets in motion campaigning for a race that Putin is all but certain to win. Voter apathy is the main challenge for Putin’s strategists, who want to make his result as strong as ever to prove that public support for the Russian leader hasn’t withered 18 years after his first election (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)

Sobchak, the 36-year old daughter of the late mayor of St. Petersburg who was Putin's boss in the 1990s, has positioned herself as a candidate for those voters who detest the president and want change.

She denies colluding with the Kremlin, but her involvement provides a crucial element for the campaign: an eloquent Putin critic catering to disenchanted liberal-minded voters.

Sobchak denounced Russia's annexation of Crimea and insisted that the Black Sea peninsula belongs to Ukraine. She also said that Western sanctions against Russia were a legitimate punishment for Moscow's actions in Ukraine.

Her appearance on the top prime-time talk shows on state-controlled TV — something that could only happen with approval from the Kremlin — made it clear she has carte blanche to deliver sharp criticism.

Sobchak insists her key aim is to encourage public discussion of subjects branded as taboo by the state and give voice to the opposition.

But that could be exactly what the Kremlin wants — a dissenter who enlivens the race without posing a real threat to Putin.

FILE - In this Tuesday, June 13, 2017 file photo, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny listens during a hearing in a court in Moscow, Russia. Russian lawmakers on Friday, Dec, 15 set the presidential election for March 18, a move that formally sets in motion campaigning for a race that Putin is all but certain to win. Voter apathy is the main challenge for Putin’s strategists, who want to make his result as strong as ever to prove that public support for the Russian leader hasn’t withered 18 years after his first election (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

With her star power, media savviness and energetic presence on social platforms, Sobchak has an appeal to young Russians who form the core of Navalny's supporters. At the same time, her snobbish, insolent style makes her a strong irritant for blue-collar workers, helping mobilize Putin's base.

From the Kremlin's perspective, Sobchak's participation has an added value of further splitting and weakening the ranks of Putin's foes.

While many in the opposition camp accused Sobchak of playing into Putin's hands, she probably will attract those who resent Navalny's calls for defying the government with unauthorized protests and prefer more moderate ways of expressing dissent.

Wearing a bright red dress, Sobchak boldly challenged Putin at his news conference, arguing that the refusal to let Navalny run reflects the Kremlin's fear of the opposition. It was an appearance that was certain to expand her base of support.

"She will draw Navalny's supporters to her side," Gudkov said. "As people realize that Navalny will not be allowed to enter the race under any circumstances, she will take that niche."

In Nizhny Tagil, home to a factory making military tanks, Andrey Artyugin already has signed up as a volunteer for Sobchak. The 38-year-old engineer said he initially supported Navalny but lost trust in the opposition leader after sensing "some falsity" in him.

Navalny has warned that he would strike back at Putin by staging a campaign for boycotting the vote — an effort that may hurt Kremlin efforts to boost the turnout.

"Our task would be to run a very active campaign to convince everyone that they shouldn't turn out," Navalny said on his YouTube channel, calling on his followers to get ready for an "electoral strike."

He relies on a grass-roots network of supporters in more than 80 cities to deliver the message.

"A chance is really small that he will be allowed to run in the election, but people fight for this," said 18-year-old Sergey Antoshchenko, a Navalny campaigner in Nizhny Tagil.

Just a few months short of a quarter-century as Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin on Tuesday will put his hand on a copy of the constitution and begin another six-year term as president wielding extraordinary power.

Since becoming acting president on the last day of 1999, Putin has shaped Russia into a monolith — crushing political opposition, running independent-minded journalists out of the country and promoting an increasing devotion to prudish “traditional values” that pushes many in society into the margins.

His influence is so dominant that other officials could only stand submissively on the sidelines as he launched a war in Ukraine despite expectations the invasion would bring international opprobrium and harsh economic sanctions, as well as cost Russia dearly in the blood of its soldiers.

With that level of power, what Putin will do with his next term is a daunting question at home and abroad.

The war in Ukraine, where Russia is making incremental though consistent battlefield gains, is the top concern, and he is showing no indication of changing course.

“The war in Ukraine is central to his current political project, and I don't see anything to suggest that that will change. And that affects everything else,” Brian Taylor, a Syracuse University professor and author of “The Code of Putinism,” said in an interview with The Associated Press.

“It affects who's in what positions, it affects what resources are available and it affects the economy, affects the level of repression internally,” he said.

In his state of the nation address in February, Putin vowed to fulfill Moscow’s goals in Ukraine, and do whatever it takes to “defend our sovereignty and security of our citizens.” He claimed the Russian military has “gained a huge combat experience” and is “firmly holding the initiative and waging offensives in a number of sectors.”

That will come at huge expense, which could drain money available for the extensive domestic projects and reforms in education, welfare and poverty-fighting that Putin used much of the two-hour address to detail.

Taylor suggested such projects were included in the address as much for show as for indicating real intent to put them into action.

Putin “thinks of himself in the grand historical terms of Russian lands, bringing Ukraine back to where it belongs, those sorts of ideas. And I think those trump any kind of more socioeconomic-type programs,” Taylor said.

If the war were to end in less than total defeat for either side, with Russia retaining some of the territory it has already captured, European countries fear that Putin could be encouraged toward further military adventurism in the Baltics or in Poland.

“It's possible that Putin does have vast ambitions and will try to follow a costly success in Ukraine with a new attack somewhere else,” Harvard international relations professor Stephen Walt wrote in the journal Foreign Policy. “But it is also entirely possible that his ambitions do not extend beyond what Russia has won — at enormous cost and that he has no need or desire to gamble for more.”

But, Walt added, “Russia will be in no shape to launch new wars of aggression when the war in Ukraine is finally over.”

Such a rational concern might not prevail, others say. Maksim Samorukov, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that “driven by Putin's whims and delusions, Moscow is likely to commit self-defeating blunders.”

In a commentary in Foreign Affairs, Samorukov suggested that Putin's age could affect his judgment.

“At 71 ... his awareness of his own mortality surely impinges on his decision-making. A growing sense of his limited time undoubtedly contributed to his fateful decision to invade Ukraine.”

Overall, Putin may be heading into his new term with a weaker grip on power than he appears to have.

Russia's “vulnerabilities are hidden in plain sight. Now more than ever, the Kremlin makes decisions in a personalized and arbitrary way that lacks even basic controls,” Samorukov wrote.

“The Russian political elite have grown more pliant in implementing Putin's orders and more obsequious to his paranoid worldview,” he wrote. The regime “is at permanent risk of crumbling overnight, as its Soviet predecessor did three decades ago."

Putin is sure to continue his continue animosity toward the West, which he said in his state of the nation address “would like to do to Russia the same thing they did in many other regions of the world, including Ukraine: to bring discord into our home, to weaken it from within.”

Putin's resistance to the West manifests not only anger at its support for Ukraine, but in what he sees as the undermining of Russia's moral fiber.

Russia last year banned the notional LGBTQ+ “movement” by declaring it to be extremist in what officials said was a fight for traditional values like those espoused by the Russian Orthodox Church in the face of Western influence. Courts also banned gender transitioning.

“I would expect the role of the Russian Orthodox Church to continue to be quite visible," Taylor said. He also noted the burst of social media outrage that followed a party hosted by TV presenter Anastasia Ivleeva where guests were invited to show up “almost naked.”

“Other actors in the system understand that that stuff resonates with Putin. ... There were people interested in exploiting things like that,” he said.

Although the opposition and independent media have almost vanished under Putin's repressive measures, there's still potential for further moves to control Russia's information space, including moving forward with its efforts to establish a “sovereign internet.”

The inauguration comes two days before Victory Day, Russia's most important secular holiday, commemorating the Soviet Red Army's capture of Berlin in World War II and the immense hardships of the war, in which the USSR lost some 20 million people.

The defeat of Nazi Germany is integral to modern Russia's identity and to Putin's justification of the war in Ukraine as a comparable struggle.

Associated Press writer Jim Heintz, based in Tallinn, Estonia, has covered the entirety of Putin's tenure as Russian leader.

FILE - President Vladimir Putin looks at a military parade after his inauguration ceremony in Moscow on May 7, 2018. Putin begins another term as Russian president in an opulent Kremlin inauguration taking place on Tuesday. (Dmitry Azarov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin sits for an interview with the Russia-1 TV channel in the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, on June 3, 2022. (Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a visit to his campaign headquarters after the presidential election in Moscow on March 18, 2024. Putin begins his fifth term as Russian president in an opulent Kremlin inauguration on Tuesday after destroying his political opposition, launching a devastating war in Ukraine and consolidating power. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - In this photo taken from video released by Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry on Dec. 30, 2023, firefighters extinguish burning cars after shelling in Belgorod, Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who begins another 6-year term on Tuesday, launched a war in Ukraine despite expectations the invasion would bring international opprobrium and harsh economic sanctions, as well as cost Russia dearly in the blood of its soldiers. (Russia Emergency Situations Ministry telegram channel via AP, File)

Graves of Russian servicemen killed in Ukraine in a cemetery in Russia’s Volgograd region on Saturday, March 30, 2024. Russian president Vladimir Putin’s influence is so dominant that other officials could only stand by submissively as he launched a war in Ukraine despite expectations the invasion would bring international opprobrium and harsh economic sanctions, as well as cost Russia dearly in the blood of its soldiers. (AP Photo)

FILE - Oleg Orlov, co-chair of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning organization Memorial, gestures from a glass cage while on trial on charges of repeated discrediting the Russian military, in Moscow on Feb. 27, 2024. Orlov was sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - Police officers detain a man laying flowers to honor Alexei Navalny at a monument to victims of Soviet repression in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Feb. 16, 2024. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry on March 19, 2024, a Russian tank fires at Ukrainian troops from a position near the border with Ukraine in Russia’s Belgorod region. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with a soldier and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stands next to him, smiling, during a visit at a military training centre of the Western Military District in Ryazan Region, Russia on Oct. 20, 2022. Putin begins his fifth term as Russian president in an opulent Kremlin inauguration on Tuesday after destroying his political opposition, launching a devastating war in Ukraine and consolidating power. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses members of the Defense Ministry, the National Guard, the Interior Ministry, the Federal Security Service and the Federal Guard Service at the Kremlin, in Moscow on June 27, 2023. Putin will begins his fifth term as Russian president in an opulent Kremlin inauguration on Tuesday after destroying his political opposition, launching a devastating war in Ukraine and consolidating power. (Sergei Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)