Asian Development Bank raises growth forecast for region, but warns of risks from trade sanctions

Developing economies in Asia are forecast to grow at a 5.0% annual pace this year, helped by a strong U.S. economy and surging demand for computer chips that power artificial intelligence, the Asian Development Bank said in a report Wednesday.

The forecast was revised upward slightly from the ADB's April estimate of 4.9% growth.

However, the regional lender warned of the potential threat of more protectionist measures, such as higher tariffs on exports from China, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

The report highlighted several positive trends, including a rebound in exports from Asia of computer chips and other advanced electronics this year due to rapid adoption of artificial intelligence. It also noted that energy and food prices are moderating, though inflation remains painfully high in countries such as Pakistan, Laos and Myanmar.

The upturn in global demand for semiconductors and related electronics materials and components has helped drive stronger growth in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, and to a lesser extent, the Philippines and Thailand, and that trend is expected to continue.

The report cited data from World Semiconductor Trade Statistics projecting that spending on memory chips, vital for AI applications, will expand 77% this year.

Other types of exports, especially autos from China and South Korea, also are growing quickly, it said.

The U.S. presidential election is a major source of uncertainty.

“The election could result in higher blanket tariffs by the U.S. on all global imports, and a broad-based and steep increase in tariffs on all U.S. imports from the PRC (China),” the report said. “This would significantly escalate U.S.-PRC trade tensions, with potential negative spillovers to developing Asia through real and financial channels.”

Former President Donald Trump has pledged to stop U.S. businesses from shipping jobs overseas and to take other countries’ jobs and factories away by relying heavily on sweeping tariffs. Vice President Kamala Harris has criticized Trump’s plan to impose large tariffs on most imported goods, which she says would severely raise the cost of goods.

Asia's developing economies are also vulnerable to other U.S. moves that might affect their currencies or the cost of borrowing on foreign loans, the report said.

China's ailing property market remains a key risk and the report kept its forecasts for growth for the world's second-largest economy at 4.8% in 2024 and 4.5% next year. The ADB's chief economist, Albert Park, welcomed a flurry of fresh measures announced Tuesday by Beijing to cut borrowing costs and encourage more home purchases.

“It's good to see. Certainly there's room for monetary policy expansion,” he told reporters in a briefing before the report's release. “Whether that will work remains to be seen.”

Among other positive developments, the report noted that energy inflation has returned to levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020. That alleviates pressures on some economies that depend heavily on imports of oil and other fuels, such as Sri Lanka, China and Japan.

Food inflation is still slightly higher, but falling. Rice prices fell by 12% to $589 per metric ton in late August after hitting a 16-year peak of $669 per metric ton in late January, the report said.

They are expected to fall further, as rice harvests are projected to hit record levels in the 2024-2025 growing year, and prices for wheat and maize also have declined. Crops are likely to benefit from the La Nina climate phenomenon, which could bring beneficial higher rainfall to some regions though it also could cause destructive flooding in others.

FILE - Construction cranes are seen near the central business district in Beijing, Aug. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

Residents walk by a luxury housing construction site in Beijing, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

FILE - A man walks by a money exchange shop decorated with Chinese yuan banknotes and other countries currency banknotes at Central, a business district in Hong Kong, Aug. 6, 2019. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung, File)

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — Richard “Dick” Codey, a former acting governor of New Jersey and the longest serving legislator in the state's history, died Sunday. He was 79.

Codey’s wife, Mary Jo Codey, confirmed her husband’s death to The Associated Press.

“Gov. Richard J. Codey passed away peacefully this morning at home, surrounded by family, after a brief illness,” Codey's family wrote in a Facebook post on Codey's official page.

"Our family has lost a beloved husband, father and grandfather -- and New Jersey lost a remarkable public servant who touched the lives of all who knew him," the family said.

Known for his feisty, regular-guy persona, Codey was a staunch advocate of mental health awareness and care issues. The Democrat also championed legislation to ban smoking from indoor areas and sought more money for stem cell research.

Codey, the son of a northern New Jersey funeral home owner, entered the state Assembly in 1974 and served there until he was elected to the state Senate in 1982. He served as Senate president from 2002 to 2010.

Codey first served as acting governor for a brief time in 2002, after Christine Todd Whitman’s resignation to join President George W. Bush’s administration. He held the post again for 14 months after Gov. Jim McGreevey resigned in 2004.

At that time, New Jersey law mandated that the Senate president assume the governor’s role if a vacancy occurred, and that person would serve until the next election.

Codey routinely drew strong praise from residents in polls, and he gave serious consideration to seeking the Democratic nomination for governor in 2005. But he ultimately chose not to run when party leaders opted to back wealthy Wall Street executive Jon Corzine, who went on to win the office.

Codey would again become acting governor after Corzine was incapacitated in April 2007 due to serious injuries he suffered in a car accident. He held the post for nearly a month before Corzine resumed his duties.

After leaving the governor’s office, Codey returned to the Senate and also published a memoir that detailed his decades of public service, along with stories about his personal and family life.

“He lived his life with humility, compassion and a deep sense of responsibility to others,” his family wrote. “He made friends as easily with Presidents as he did with strangers in all-night diners.”

Codey and his wife often spoke candidly about her past struggles with postpartum depression, and that led to controversy in early 2005, when a talk radio host jokingly criticized Mary Jo and her mental health on the air.

Codey, who was at the radio station for something else, confronted the host and said he told him that he wished he could “take him outside.” But the host claimed Codey actually threatened to “take him out,” which Codey denied.

His wife told The Associated Press that Codey was willing to support her speaking out about postpartum depression, even if it cost him elected office.

“He was a really, really good guy,” Mary Jo Codey said. “He said, ‘If you want to do it, I don’t care if I get elected again.’”

Jack Brook contributed reporting from New Orleans.

FILE - New Jersey State Sen. and former Democratic Gov. Richard Codey is seen before New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy delivers his State of the State address to a joint session of the Legislature at the statehouse, in Trenton, N.J., Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)