World merchandise trade expected to decline by 0.2 pct in 2025: WTO

The volume of global merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2 percent in 2025 under current tariff conditions, nearly 3 percentage points lower than the previous forecast based on a "low tariff" scenario, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released on Wednesday.

The WTO further warned of severe downside risks posed by the reinstatement of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" and spillover of trade policy uncertainty, which could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5 percent in global goods trade in 2025.

The WTO noted big regional disparities regarding the impact on goods trade by recent tariff measures in place as of April 14.

North America is expected to see a "particularly steep" decline in goods trade, with exports forecast to drop by 12.6 percent, according to the WTO.

Meanwhile, Asia is expected to post modest trade growth, with exports and imports both forecast to grow by 1.6 percent. Europe is expected to register a 1.0 percent increase in exports and a 1.9 percent rise in imports.

The WTO said that services trade, which is not directly subject to tariffs, is also expected to be negatively affected. The volume of global services trade is forecast to grow by 4.0 percent in 2025, around 1 percentage point less than expected.

The WTO underscored that the latest forecast marks a "reversal" from 2024, when the volume of world merchandise trade grew 2.9 percent, while gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.8 percent.

The large number of new tariffs introduced since January this year prompted the WTO to downgrade its trade growth forecast for 2025 which had been positive at the start of the year.

World merchandise trade expected to decline by 0.2 pct in 2025: WTO

Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Thursday presided over a State Council executive meeting that studied work on building a unified national market and reviewed and approved a plan for the development of a modern emergency response system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030).

Noting that building a unified national market is essential to advancing high-quality development, the meeting called for deepening institutional frameworks in areas such as property rights protection, market access, fair competition, social credit and market exit mechanisms.

The meeting also urged efforts to advance high-standard connectivity of market infrastructure to facilitate smooth economic circulation and effectively reduce logistics costs across society.

Emergency management is critical to protecting people's lives and property, the meeting said. It called for accelerating the development of a modern emergency response system, deepening reform and innovation in emergency management, and improving coordinated response mechanisms.

Efforts should be made to strengthen risk prevention at the source, enhance monitoring, forecasting and early warning, and accelerate a shift in governance toward proactive prevention, according to the meeting.

A draft revision of the Law on the People's Bank of China was also discussed and approved in principle at the meeting, which decided to submit the draft to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for deliberation.

Chinese premier chairs State Council executive meeting