Conservative Poilievre seemed poised to be Canada's next leader. Then Trump declared economic war

TORONTO (AP) — Until a few months ago, Pierre Poilievre was seen as a shoo-in to become Canada's next prime minister and shepherd his Conservative Party back into power for the first time in a decade. Then, President Donald Trump declared economic war on the U.S.'s neighbor to the north and even threatened to make Canada the 51st state.

Poilievre, a career politician and firebrand populist, has campaigned with Trump-like braggadocio, even taking a page from the “America First” president by adopting the slogan “Canada First.” But his similarities to Trump might cost him the chance to become prime minister when Canadians head to the polls on April 28.

Trump’s frequent attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty have infuriated Canadians and led to a surge in nationalism that has bolstered Liberal Party poll numbers.

Like Trump, Poilievre brags about the size of the crowd at his campaign rallies and attacks the mainstream media, recently calling a female journalist a protester. In response to the changes in public opinion, some Poilievre supporters wore hoodies to a recent rally with the slogan, “Do you believe the polls?”

The change in the polls has been dramatic. In a mid-January poll by Nanos, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by 47% to 20%. In the latest Nanos poll, which was conducted during a three-day period that ended April 20, the Liberals led by eight percentage points. The January poll had a margin of error of 3.1 points while the latest poll had a 2.7-point margin.

“The Trumpy hectoring of people, the slogans, the big rallies — like it all just seems like so Trump. And people are not loving Trump right now in Canada,” said Kory Teneycke, a key figure in conservative Canadian politics who directs campaigns.

“(Poilievre's) style and his approach to politics certainly channel a lot of Trump. It’s like a cheap karaoke version of Trump."

Poilievre is imploring Canadians not to give the Liberals a fourth term after “a lost Liberal decade." He hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged.

But Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned and Mark Carney, a two-time central banker, became Liberal party leader and prime minister. After decades of bilateral stability, the vote is now expected to focus on who is best equipped to deal with Trump.

Poilievre is best known for his populist slogans and attacks on Trudeau, whom he blamed for high inflation. He was a Cabinet minister in former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government and has led the opposition Conservatives since 2022.

Teneycke said Poilievre's skill as a “political attack dog” is what led him to great heights.

"When that ire was focused on a very unpopular prime minister in Justin Trudeau, that was working for him," Teneycke said. “Exit Trudeau, enter Trump and it’s a totally changed game. He hasn’t brought that level of ferocity to Trump."

Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said Poilievre is different from Trump in quite a few ways but, stylistically, their rhetoric is often similar.

“Sounding like someone many of your fellow citizens perceive as their country’s public enemy No. 1 can’t be a good thing in politics," Béland said.

A married 45-year-old father of two, Poilievre represents a district outside the capital, Ottawa, but he grew up in Alberta, Canada's most conservative province. He has been a member of Parliament since the age of 25.

Poilievre volunteered on conservative campaigns during his teenage years, joined the campus conservative club at the University of Calgary and was a finalist for an essay-writing contest about what he would do if he were prime minister.

Trump has said he isn’t concerned that his trade war with Canada was boosting the Liberal Party ahead of the parliamentary elections. And although he said Poilievre's views are more aligned than Carney’s with his own, he's not a fan of Poilievre.

“The conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine,” Trump has said, criticizing Poilievre for “saying negative things.”

Poilievre, like Carney, said that if he's elected, he would accelerate renegotiations of the free trade deal with the U.S. He also wants Trump to suspend U.S. tariffs during the talks. He said Trump should “knock off” his attacks on Canada, but that “nobody can control this president.”

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative ally of Poilievre, said Poilievre would be “very much in sync” with the “new direction in America.”

Poilievre has vowed to defund the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, the public broadcaster and a cultural institution in Canada. He wants to cut taxes and hopes to approve pipelines that would diversify oil exports. He has also promised to be tough on crime and has denounced “woke-ism.”

“Who’s ready for change in Canada? Who’s ready to ax some taxes? Who’s ready to build some homes? Who’s ready for some pipelines to make us independent from the Americans? And who’s ready to put Canada first for a change?" Poilievre said at a recent rally.

FILE - Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a news conference in Ottawa, March 14, 2025. (Chris Tanouye/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - People rally in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to Canadian sovereignty on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, March 9, 2025. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lifts his son Cruz up after speaking at a pre-election event in Ottawa, on March 21, 2025. (Justin Tang /The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre arrives in Terrace, British Columbia, during a campaign stop on April 6, 2025. (Aaron Whitfield/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Canada Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appears at a federal election campaign event in Brampton, Ontario, March 24, 2025. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

FILE - Canada Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appears at a federal election campaign event in Brampton, Ontario, on March 24, 2025. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press via AP, File)

NEW YORK (AP) — A New York City Council employee was arrested in the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, enraging city officials and drawing protesters Tuesday to the Manhattan detention center where he was being held.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement said Rafael Andres Rubio Bohorquez had long overstayed a tourist visa, had once been arrested for assault, and “had no legal right to be in the United States.”

City Council Speaker Julie Menin disputed that, telling reporters that Rubio Bohorquez, a data analyst for the city legislative body, was legally authorized to work in the U.S. until October.

Menin, a Democrat, said the council employee signed a document as part of his employment confirming that he had never been arrested and cleared the standard background check conducted for all applicants.

The New York Immigration Coalition and New York Legal Assistance Group filed a petition after Rubio Bohorquez's arrest Monday asking a court to order his release, Menin and Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y., said in a statement.

ICE confirmed Rubio Bohorquez’s name. Menin and Goldman referred to him only as a council employee. She said she was doing so to protect his identity.

“We are doing everything we can to secure his immediate release,” Menin said at a Monday evening news conference. She decried the arrest as “egregious government overreach.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a Democrat, said he was “outraged” by what he called “an assault on our democracy, on our city, and our values.”

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, also a Democrat, said: “This is exactly what happens when immigration enforcement is weaponized.” Detaining people during routine appearances “doesn’t make us safer. It erodes trust, spreads fear, and violates basic principles of fairness,” she said.

Menin said officials were attempting to reach Rubio Bohorquez’s family and obtain contact information for his immigration lawyer.

Rubio Bohorquez, originally from Venezuela, was detained at an immigration appointment in Bethpage, on Long Island, authorities said. Menin called it a regular check-in that “quickly went awry.”

“This staffer, who chose to work for the city and contribute his expertise to the community, did everything right by appearing at a scheduled interview, and yet ICE unlawfully detained him,” Lisa Rivera, the president and CEO of New York Legal Assistance Group, said in a statement.

Rivera said the organization represents dozens of people who have been wrongfully detained by ICE and hundreds who are following immigration procedures in hopes of staying in the U.S.

According to ICE, Rubio Bohorquez entered the U.S. in 2017 on a B2 tourist visa and was required to leave the country by Oct. 22, 2017. He has been employed by the City Council for about a year, Menin said. His position pays about $129,315 per year, according to city payroll data.

“He had no work authorization,” ICE said in a statement confirming Rubio Bohorquez’s arrest. The agency, part of the Department of Homeland Security, said that under Secretary Kristi Noem “criminal illegal aliens are not welcome in the United States. If you come to our country illegally and break our law, we will find you and we will arrest you.”

Several dozen people protested Tuesday outside the Greater New York Federal Building, where Rubio Bohorquez was being held. Some carried signs that said “Abolish ICE” and “No Human Is Illegal.”

Disputes over an immigrant’s work authorization have arisen before, in part because many employers rely on a robust but flawed government system called E-Verify. The tool compares information entered by an employer from an employee’s documents with records available to Homeland Security and the Social Security Administration.

Experts say the system is generally accurate in terms of matching documents, but it doesn’t automatically notify an employer if an employee’s right to work is revoked after it has already been verified.

A 2021 Inspector General review concluded that until the government addresses E-Verify’s shortcomings, “it cannot ensure the system provides accurate employment eligibility results.”

Matthew Malloy, Executive Board Member with the Association of Legislative Employees, speaks during a news conference outside Greater New York Federal Building, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Alexa Avilés, New York City Council member, speaks during a news conference outside Greater New York Federal Building, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Chi Ossé, New York City Council member, speaks during a news conference outside Greater New York Federal Building, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Carlos Calzadilla, President of Brooklyn Young Democrats, speaks during a news conference outside Greater New York Federal Building, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

People raise signs during a news conference outside Greater New York Federal Building, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)