The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI), a key gauge of future business activity, fell 0.7 percent in March, its largest monthly decline since late 2023, the Conference Board said on Monday.
The Conference Board is an independent, non-profit, economic research body that is tasked by the U.S. Department of Commerce to produce and publish the LEI every month.
The drop in the LEI underscores growing concerns over the economic impact of ongoing policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs. Analysts say ambiguity surrounding trade and tariff measures has weighed on both consumer sentiment and business investment.
The data comes as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts, further unsettling markets.
The S and P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all ended Monday's session in the red, reflecting rising investor unease over the outlook for growth. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index — which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major peers — slipped to 97.92, its lowest level since March 2022.
Meanwhile, gold prices surged to record highs, with both international gold futures and spot prices exceeding 3,500 U.S. dollars per ounce on Tuesday, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid growing economic uncertainty.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, warned on Monday that persistently high tariffs could push the U.S. economy into a downturn, saying that the odds of a two-quarter contraction in output stand at 90 percent, with GDP falling by 4 percentage points. He said he was certain the U.S. will fall into a recession this year.
US Leading Economic Index posts sharpest drop since 2023 amid tariff uncertainty
