The 151st Kentucky Derby could be a mudder's delight with rain in the forecast

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — The Kentucky Derby is tough to win, with a huge field of stampeding horses and 150,000 screaming fans in the stands. Toss in a rainy forecast that could turn the Churchill Downs dirt strip into something resembling peanut butter and it gets trickier.

A field of 19 3-year-olds is set to run 1 1/4 miles for a $3.1 million prize and the garland of red roses on Saturday. Mucking things up is a forecast of 65 degrees (18 degrees Celsius) with a 90% chance of rain.

The soggy weather isn't just a bummer for those wanting the fairest of track conditions. The Derby is also a big party and fashion show, and rain means pulling out ponchos — no umbrellas allowed — to protect the huge hats and floral dresses.

Thirteen of the Derby contenders — including early 3-1 favorite Journalism — have never raced on a wet track. Clods of flying mud hitting their faces could be a turnoff.

“I may go through three pairs of goggles,” said Brian Hernandez Jr., who will be aboard Burnham Square.

Six longshots have experience in the muck, with four winning. Coal Battle is 2 for 2, while Japan-based Luxor Cafe is 3 for 4. The others are Neoequos and American Promise, trained by 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas.

The last Derby run on a sloppy track was in 2019, when Country House won via a disqualification that had nothing to do with the weather. The last muddy track was in 1989, when Sunday Silence won.

Trainer Bob Baffert goes for a record-setting seventh victory in his return from a three-year suspension. He'll saddle Citizen Bull, last year's 2-year-old champion. The colt breaks from the dreaded No. 1 post, leaving him little choice but to get to the front before the rest of the field comes over, potentially cutting him off.

“We're going to tell him to get out of there like he just robbed a bank,” Baffert said.

No horse has won from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.

Baffert's other horse, Rodriguez, was scratched Thursday with a bruised foot, moving Baeza into the field. Trainer Todd Pletcher's only entry, Grande, was scratched Friday for the same reason.

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen tries to snap an 0 for 26 Derby losing streak with a pair of 20-1 shots: Publisher and Tiztastic. Both are next to each other in the starting gate.

Sovereignty, the early 5-1 second choice, won at Churchill Downs last fall. He'll try to snap an 0 for 13 Derby skid for Godolphin, the racing stable of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

“I know he loves this track,” jockey Junior Alvarado said, “so I'm sitting on a good run with him now.”

Sandman, the early 6-1 third choice, is the most expensive horse in the field at $1.2 million. Conversely, 30-1 shot Chunk of Gold was bought for $2,500.

“There's been a lot of expensive horses not pan out and there's been a lot of cheap ones that have panned out,” Chunk of Gold trainer Ethan West said. “It's not like he's a big, robust, grand-looking animal. He's very good-looking, but he doesn't look like Journalism, that's for sure.”

Journalism looked the part of the Derby favorite while training during a mostly rain-free week on the track and breaks from the No. 8 post.

“The history of the Derby is usually a pretty vibrant opening quarter-mile," trainer Michael McCarthy said. ”He'll be part of that, probably just back off the speed."

The Southern California-based colt's mother's name is Mopotism and wanting a name ending in “ism,” co-owner Aron Wellman took inspiration from his old gig as sports editor of the Beverly Hills High School newspaper.

“Now more than ever, in the climate that we're living in, journalists and responsible journalism is so important,” he said. “It's so poignant that a horse named Journalism is going to have all eyes on him.”

AP horse racing: https://apnews.com/hub/horse-racing

Graphic shows horses in the Kentucky Derby with post positions, silks and odds.

A race fan sits in the stands at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Oaks horse race Friday, May 2, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

A fan looks out at the paddock at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Oaks horse race Friday, May 2, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Jon Cherry)

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas watches a workout at Churchill Downs Thursday, May 1, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Trainer Bob Baffert motions to a visitor outside his barn at Churchill Downs Tuesday, April 29, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Kentucky Derby entrant Coal Battle works out at Churchill Downs Monday, April 28, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Kentucky Derby entrant Luxor Cafe, from Japan, works out at Churchill Downs Monday, April 28, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Horses workout as the sun rises at Churchill Downs Friday, May 2, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Kentucky Derby entrant Journalism works out at Churchill Downs Thursday, May 1, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

People chat as they stand around the paddock at Churchill Downs before the 151st running of the Kentucky Oaks horse race Friday, May 2, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Jon Cherry)

Kentucky Derby entrant Journalism gets a bath after a work out at Churchill Downs Wednesday, April 30, 2025, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sluggish December hiring concluded a year of weak employment gains that have frustrated job seekers even though layoffs and unemployment have remained low.

Employers added just 50,000 jobs last month, nearly unchanged from a downwardly revised figure of 56,000 in November, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.4%, its first decline since June, from 4.5% in November, a figure also revised lower.

The data suggests that businesses are reluctant to add workers even as economic growth has picked up. Many companies hired aggressively after the pandemic and no longer need to fill more jobs. Others have held back due to widespread uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies, elevated inflation, and the spread of artificial intelligence, which could alter or even replace some jobs.

Still, economists were encouraged by the drop in the unemployment rate, which had risen in the previous four straight reports. It had also alarmed officials at the Federal Reserve, prompting three cuts to the central bank's key interest rate last year. The decline lowered the odds of another rate reduction in January, economists said.

“The labor market looks to have stabilized, but at a slower pace of employment growth,” Blerina Uruci, chief economist at T. Rowe Price, said. There is no urgency for the Fed to cut rates further, for now."

Some Federal Reserve officials are concerned that inflation remains above their target of 2% annual growth, and hasn't improved since 2024. They support keeping rates where they are to combat inflation. Others, however, are more worried that hiring has nearly ground to a halt and have supported lowering borrowing costs to spur spending and growth.

November's job gain was revised slightly lower, from 64,000 to 56,000, while October's now shows a much steeper drop, with a loss of 173,000 positions, down from previous estimates of a 105,000 decline. The government revises the jobs figures as it receives more survey responses from businesses.

The economy has now lost an average of 22,000 jobs a month in the past three months, the government said. A year ago, in December 2024, it had gained 209,000 a month. Most of those losses reflect the purge of government workers by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.

Nearly all the jobs added in December were in the health care and restaurant and hotel industries. Health care added 38,500 jobs, while restaurants and hotels gained 47,000. Governments — mostly at the state and local level — added 13,000.

Manufacturing, construction and retail companies all shed jobs. Retailers cut 25,000 positions, a sign that holiday hiring has been weaker than previous years. Manufacturers have shed jobs every month since April, when Trump announced sweeping tariffs intended to boost manufacturing.

Wall Street and Washington are looking closely at Friday's report as it's the first clean reading on the labor market in three months. The government didn’t issue a report in October because of the six-week government shutdown, and November’s data was distorted by the closure, which lasted until Nov. 12.

The hiring slowdown reflects more than just a reluctance by companies to add jobs. With an aging population and a sharp drop in immigration, the economy doesn't need to create as many jobs as it has in the past to keep the unemployment rate steady. As a result, a gain of 50,000 jobs is not as clear a sign of weakness as it would have been in previous years.

And layoffs are still low, a sign firms aren't rapidly cutting jobs, as typically happens in a recession. The “low-hire, low-fire” job market does mean current workers have some job security, though those without jobs can have a tougher time.

Ernesto Castro, 44, has applied for hundreds of jobs since leaving his last in May. Yet the Los Angeles resident has gotten just three initial interviews, and only one follow-up, after which he heard nothing.

With nearly a decade of experience providing customer support for software companies, Castro expected to find a new job pretty quickly as he did in 2024.

“I should be in a good position,” Castro said. “It’s been awful.”

He worries that more companies are turning to artificial intelligence to help clients learn to use new software. He hears ads from tech companies that urge companies to slash workers that provide the kind of services he has in his previous jobs. His contacts in the industry say that employees are increasingly reluctant to switch jobs amid all the uncertainty, which leaves fewer open jobs for others.

He is now looking into starting his own software company, and is also exploring project management roles.

December’s report caps a year of sluggish hiring, particularly after April's “liberation day” tariff announcement by Trump. The economy generated an average of 111,000 jobs a month in the first three months of 2025. But that pace dropped to just 11,000 in the three months ended in August, before rebounding slightly to 22,000 in November.

Last year, the economy gained just 584,000 jobs, sharply lower than that more than 2 million added in 2024. It's the smallest annual gain since the COVID-19 pandemic decimated the job market in 2020.

Subdued hiring underscores a key conundrum surrounding the economy as it enters 2026: Growth has picked up to healthy levels, yet hiring has weakened noticeably and the unemployment rate has increased in the last four jobs reports.

Most economists expect hiring will accelerate this year as growth remains solid, and Trump's tax cut legislation is expected to produce large tax refunds this spring. Yet economists acknowledge there are other possibilities: Weak job gains could drag down future growth. Or the economy could keep expanding at a healthy clip, while automation and the spread of artificial intelligence reduces the need for more jobs.

Productivity, or output per hour worked, a measure of worker efficiency, has improved in the past three years and jumped nearly 5% in the July-September quarter. That means companies can produce more without adding jobs. Over time, it should also boost worker pay.

Even with such sluggish job gains, the economy has continued to expand, with growth reaching a 4.3% annual rate in last year's July-September quarter, the best in two years. Strong consumer spending helped drive the gain. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasts that growth could slow to a still-solid 2.7% in the final three months of last year.

FILE - A hiring sign is displayed at a grocery store in Northbrook, Ill., Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)