Poland holds a pivotal presidential runoff influenced by Trump, the far right and the war in Ukraine

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland is set to hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday between two candidates offering starkly different visions for the country’s future.

The winner will succeed President Andrzej Duda, a conservative who is finishing his second and final term. The outcome will determine whether Poland embraces a nationalist populist trajectory or pivots more fully toward liberal, pro-European policies. An exit poll by Ipsos will be released when polls close on Sunday at 9 p.m. local time, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Final results are expected Monday.

Whoever wins can be expected to either help or hinder the agenda of the centrist government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk thanks to the presidential power to veto laws.

The vote comes amid heightened regional tensions driven by Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, security concerns across Europe and internal debates about the rule of law.

It follows a first round on May 18, in which Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski won more than 31% of the vote and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, earned nearly 30%. Eleven other candidates were eliminated.

Opinion polls show the two men running neck and neck. Other factors add to the unpredictability. Nawrocki did much better in the first round than surveys had predicted, indicating that his strength was underestimated. On the other hand, large numbers of Poles abroad have registered to vote in the second round, which could help Trzaskowski.

Nawrocki is a 42-year-old historian who was tapped as by the national conservative Law and Justice party despite a lack of political experience or party membership. But this is seen as acting in his favor, as the party, which governed for 2015-2023, seeks to refresh its image before a parliamentary election in 2027.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic Polish values. They believe U.S. President Donald Trump's support for him will strengthen Poland's ties with the United States and make the country safer.

Trzaskowski, 53, is Warsaw’s mayor and a close ally of Tusk. A deputy leader of Civic Platform, a pro-European Union party, he has been prominent in national politics for years. This is his second presidential bid after narrowly losing to Duda in 2020.

Supporters credit him with modernizing Warsaw through infrastructure, public transit expansion and cultural investments. He is widely seen as pragmatic and focused on strengthening ties with other European nations.

Nawrocki recently received a boost from Trump and other U.S. conservatives, who see the Polish election as part of a global battle between liberal and populist right-wing forces.

His campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including skepticism toward EU bureaucracy and emphasis on Christian identity. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish issues to Paris and Berlin.

Nawrocki also has been endorsed by the Trump administration and conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Many European centrists are rooting for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democracy as it faces pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe. He has received the support of new centrist Romanian President Nicusor Dan — who recently defeated a far-right nationalist.

Nawrocki has faced a number of scandals over the past months, but it's not clear that they are hurting him. In fact, they might have the opposite effect. Many right-wing voters don't believe the allegations and accuse the media of using its power to hurt him, creating what appears to be a rallying effect around him.

Nawrocki himself has acknowledged that he took part in an organized brawl including football hooligans in 2009. A former boxer, he said he has taken part in various forms of “noble male battle” in his life.

Polish media have also reported on his connections to gangsters and the world of prostitution.

Tusk accused Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczynski of tapping Nawrocki despite questions about his past.

“You knew about everything, Jarosław. About the connections with the gangsters, about ‘fixing girls,’" Tusk wrote on X. "The entire responsibility for this catastrophe falls on you!”

1. Security and war in Ukraine: With Russia’s war in Ukraine in its fourth year, Polish voters are acutely attuned to issues of regional security. Both candidates support continued backing for Ukraine, but to different degrees. Nawrocki believes that Ukraine should never join NATO, while Trzaskowski believes Ukraine should be allowed to join one day when the current war is over.

2. Rule of law and democracy: Trzaskowski has pledged to support the restoration of judicial independence and repair relations with the EU, which viewed changes by Law and Justice as anti-democratic. Tusk has tried to change some legislation, but has faced resistance from the the outgoing president, Duda. Nawrocki, while less outspoken than his party patrons, is seen as likely to preserve Law and Justice’s changes that politicized the courts.

3. Women’s rights: Abortion remains a divisive issue in Poland, especially after a near-total ban was imposed under Law and Justice. Trzaskowski supports loosening restrictions and has backed proposals to legalize abortion up to 12 weeks. Nawrocki opposes any liberalization and has campaigned as a defender of traditional conservative values.

The liberal presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski holds a giant polish flag in the first row as he stands next to a waving women during a march one week ahead of a decisive presidential election in Warsaw, Poland on Sunday, May 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

The liberal presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, front left, waves as he and Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, front right, take part in a march one week ahead of a decisive presidential election in Warsaw, Poland on Sunday, May 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, front right, takes part in a march one week ahead of a decisive election in Warsaw Poland on Sunday, May 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

This combination of photos shows Rafal Trzaskowski, left, in Warsaw, Friday, May 9, 2025, and Karol Nawrocki, right, in Warsaw, Poland, Tuesday, May 20, 2025 (AP Photos/Czarek Sokolowski, File)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powellsaid Sunday the Department of Justice has served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony this summer about the Fed’s building renovations.

The move represents an unprecedented escalation in President Donald Trump’s battle with the Fed, an independent agency he's repeatedly attacked for not cutting its key interest rate as sharply as he prefers. The renewed fight will likely rattle financial markets Monday and could over time escalate borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans.

The subpoenas relate to Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June, the Fed chair said, regarding the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation of two office buildings, a project Trump has criticized as excessive.

Here's the latest:

Stocks are falling on Wall Street after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Department of Justice had served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony about the Fed’s building renovations.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3% in early trading Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 384 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.2%.

Powell characterized the threat of criminal charges as pretexts to undermine the Fed’s independence in setting interest rates, its main tool for fighting inflation. The threat is the latest escalation in President Trump’s feud with the Fed.

▶ Read more about the financial markets

She says she had “a very good conversation” with Trump on Monday morning about topics including “security with respect to our sovereignties.”

Last week, Sheinbaum had said she was seeking a conversation with Trump or U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio after the U.S. president made comments in an interview that he was ready to confront drug cartels on the ground and repeated the accusation that cartels were running Mexico.

Trump’s offers of using U.S. forces against Mexican cartels took on a new weight after the Trump administration deposed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Sheinbaum was expected to share more about their conversation later Monday.

A leader of the Canadian government is visiting China this week for the first time in nearly a decade, a bid to rebuild his country’s fractured relations with the world’s second-largest economy — and reduce Canada’s dependence on the United States, its neighbor and until recently one of its most supportive and unswerving allies.

The push by Prime Minster Mark Carney, who arrives Wednesday, is part of a major rethink as ties sour with the United States — the world’s No. 1 economy and long the largest trading partner for Canada by far.

Carney aims to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports in the next decade in the face of President Trump’s tariffs and the American leader’s musing that Canada could become “the 51st state.”

▶ Read more about relations between Canada and China

The comment by a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson came in response to a question at a regular daily briefing. President Trump has said he would like to make a deal to acquire Greenland, a semiautonomous region of NATO ally Denmark, to prevent Russia or China from taking it over.

Tensions have grown between Washington, Denmark and Greenland this month as Trump and his administration push the issue and the White House considers a range of options, including military force, to acquire the vast Arctic island.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that an American takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO.

▶ Read more about the U.S. and Greenland

Trump said Sunday that he is “inclined” to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela after its top executive was skeptical about oil investment efforts in the country after the toppling of former President Nicolás Maduro.

“I didn’t like Exxon’s response,” Trump said to reporters on Air Force One as he departed West Palm Beach, Florida. “They’re playing too cute.”

During a meeting Friday with oil executives, Trump tried to assuage the concerns of the companies and said they would be dealing directly with the U.S., rather than the Venezuelan government.

Some, however, weren’t convinced.

“If we look at the commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable,” said Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil company.

An ExxonMobil spokesperson did not immediately respond Sunday to a request for comment.

▶ Read more about Trump’s comments on ExxonMobil

Trump’s motorcade took a different route than usual to the airport as he was departing Florida on Sunday due to a “suspicious object,” according to the White House.

The object, which the White House did not describe, was discovered during security sweeps in advance of Trump’s arrival at Palm Beach International Airport.

“A further investigation was warranted and the presidential motorcade route was adjusted accordingly,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement Sunday.

The president, when asked about the package by reporters, said, “I know nothing about it.”

Anthony Guglielmi, the spokesman for U.S. Secret Service, said the secondary route was taken just as a precaution and that “that is standard protocol.”

▶ Read more about the “suspicious object”

Trump said Iran wants to negotiate with Washington after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its bloody crackdown on protesters, a move coming as activists said Monday the death toll in the nationwide demonstrations rose to at least 544.

Iran had no direct reaction to Trump’s comments, which came after the foreign minister of Oman — long an interlocutor between Washington and Tehran — traveled to Iran this weekend. It also remains unclear just what Iran could promise, particularly as Trump has set strict demands over its nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, which Tehran insists is crucial for its national defense.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking to foreign diplomats in Tehran, insisted “the situation has come under total control” in fiery remarks that blamed Israel and the U.S. for the violence, without offering evidence.

▶ Read more about the possible negotiations and follow live updates

Fed Chair Powell said Sunday the DOJ has served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over his testimony this summer about the Fed’s building renovations.

The move represents an unprecedented escalation in Trump’s battle with the Fed, an independent agency he has repeatedly attacked for not cutting its key interest rate as sharply as he prefers. The renewed fight will likely rattle financial markets Monday and could over time escalate borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans.

The subpoenas relate to Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June, the Fed chair said, regarding the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation of two office buildings, a project that Trump has criticized as excessive.

Powell on Sunday cast off what has up to this point been a restrained approach to Trump’s criticisms and personal insults, which he has mostly ignored. Instead, Powell issued a video statement in which he bluntly characterized the threat of criminal charges as simple “pretexts” to undermine the Fed’s independence when it comes to setting interest rates.

▶ Read more about the subpoenas

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters while in flight on Air Force One to Joint Base Andrews, Md., Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

President Donald Trump waves after arriving on Air Force One from Florida, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)