The U.S. economy has a 40 percent chance of going into a recession in the second half of 2025, analysts at JP Morgan said on Wednesday, warning that higher tariffs are weighing on economic growth.
The investment bank said that tariffs could squeeze both consumer purchasing power and corporate profit margins.
In light of these risks, JP Morgan has downgraded its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2 percent to 1.3 percent. Analysts also pointed to a concerning mix of slow economic output and persistent inflation, which they say bears resemblance to the 1970s era of stagflation.
JP Morgan said it expects the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to monetary easing, projecting only 100 basis points of rate cuts by spring 2026. This slower pace would likely lead to tighter financial conditions for an extended period, adding pressure on businesses and consumers alike.
JP Morgan warns of possible US recession in 2025
China is willing to continue working with Russia within the framework of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, maintain timely communication on major issues, and make joint efforts to help de-escalate the situation in the Middle East, safeguard regional peace and stability, and uphold common security for the world, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Sunday.
Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, made the remarks in a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
China and Russia, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, should uphold fairness and justice on matters of principle, adopt an objective and balanced approach, and seek greater understanding and support from the international community, Wang said.
Noting that China has consistently advocated the resolution of international and regional hotspot issues through dialogue and negotiation, Wang said that the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, hostilities are still escalating, and the fundamental solution to ensuring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz lies in achieving an early ceasefire and bringing the war to an end.
For his part, Lavrov said Russia is highly concerned about the continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Regarding the ongoing conflict and the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, Lavrov said Russia maintains that military operations must be stopped immediately and efforts should return to the track of political and diplomatic settlement to address the root causes of the conflict, and the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in this regard.
Russia stands ready to maintain close communication and coordination with China and continue to make efforts and speak out in support of a ceasefire and the end of the war, he said.
China willing to cooperate with Russia to de-escalate Mideast situation: FM
