 |
- Europe exits two-year slump, led by German export rebound and domestic demand recovery
- U.S. manufacturers purchasing surges ahead of U.S. 'tariff pause' ending
- Asia supply chains pick up, though capacity remains underutilized in Southeast Asia
- No signs of cost inflation escalation yet despite the 10% universal tariff imposed by the U.S.
CLARK, N.J., July 11, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — jumped to -0.17 in June, from -0.46 in May, its highest in 2025 as worldwide supply chain activity picked up despite the 10% tariffs imposed by the US administration.
For the first time in more than two years, European manufacturers operated at full tilt, driven by front-loaded orders from US customers, and a rebound in both domestic and export demand, particularly across Germany.
In North America, demand for inputs surged as U.S. manufacturers moved quickly to secure inputs – commodities, parts, components and raw materials – ahead of a potential end to the current tariff pause.
Asia's supply chains also showed signs of recovery, with stronger activity in India, Japan, and South Korea. However, spare capacity remains across Southeast Asia, where factory purchasing continues to lag, notably in China.
Notably, there is no evidence in the data of cost inflation escalating dramatically, despite the tariffs.
"In June, Europe shook off its long slump and global supply chains ran at full capacity — despite the uncertainty and on-and-off again tariffs," said John Piatek, VP, Consulting, GEP. "But under the surface, companies are putting in place contingencies: stockpiling inputs, reshaping supplier networks, near-shoring operations, and securing supply chain financing."
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
JUNE 2025 REGIONAL KEY FINDINGS
- ASIA: Index rises to -0.27, from -0.40, indicating a pick-up in Asian market activity, but the region's supply chains remain underutilized overall. This mostly reflects subdued factory conditions in Southeast Asia.
- NORTH AMERICA: Index rises to -0.06, from -0.24 as US manufacturers ramp up purchasing sharply ahead of the tariff pause coming to an end. North American supply chains effectively ran at full capacity in June.
- EUROPE: Index rises to 0.01, from -0.30, signaling full capacity utilization across Europe's supply chains in June as the continent's industrial sector emerges from its prolonged downturn.
- U.K.: Index rises to -0.41, from -0.97, its highest for seven months, but still indicative of an elevated level of slack across the U.K.'s supply chains.
JUNE 2025 KEY FINDINGS
- DEMAND: Global factory purchasing activity continued to trend upwards in June, with demand at its most robust in just over a year. This was driven by a considerable rise in North America, driven by the US, as manufacturers ramped up buying ahead of the pause on US tariffs coming to an end.
- INVENTORIES: There were increased reports from businesses of a rise in stockpiling due to price or supply concerns during June. Mentions of safety buffers being built into warehouses were their highest so far in 2025 globally, with the prospect of higher tariffs driving procurement managers into precautionary action.
- MATERIAL SHORTAGES: The global item shortages indicator, which measures the prevalence of supply problems, remains historically low, indicating robust availability.
- LABOR SHORTAGES: Suppliers' workforce capacity remains sufficient to process current order loads, according to our data. Reports of manufacturing backlogs rising due to staff shortages remain stable at historically typical levels.
- TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs were once again in line with their long-term average in June. Reports from surveyed businesses of logistic cost pressures remain anchored.
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Aug. 12, 2025.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global. For more information about the methodology, click here.
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
- Europe exits two-year slump, led by German export rebound and domestic demand recovery
- U.S. manufacturers purchasing surges ahead of U.S. 'tariff pause' ending
- Asia supply chains pick up, though capacity remains underutilized in Southeast Asia
- No signs of cost inflation escalation yet despite the 10% universal tariff imposed by the U.S.
CLARK, N.J., July 11, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — jumped to -0.17 in June, from -0.46 in May, its highest in 2025 as worldwide supply chain activity picked up despite the 10% tariffs imposed by the US administration.
For the first time in more than two years, European manufacturers operated at full tilt, driven by front-loaded orders from US customers, and a rebound in both domestic and export demand, particularly across Germany.
In North America, demand for inputs surged as U.S. manufacturers moved quickly to secure inputs – commodities, parts, components and raw materials – ahead of a potential end to the current tariff pause.
Asia's supply chains also showed signs of recovery, with stronger activity in India, Japan, and South Korea. However, spare capacity remains across Southeast Asia, where factory purchasing continues to lag, notably in China.
Notably, there is no evidence in the data of cost inflation escalating dramatically, despite the tariffs.
"In June, Europe shook off its long slump and global supply chains ran at full capacity — despite the uncertainty and on-and-off again tariffs," said John Piatek, VP, Consulting, GEP. "But under the surface, companies are putting in place contingencies: stockpiling inputs, reshaping supplier networks, near-shoring operations, and securing supply chain financing."
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
Interpreting the data:
Index > 0, supply chain capacity is being stretched. The further above 0, the more stretched supply chains are.
Index < 0, supply chain capacity is being underutilized. The further below 0, the more underutilized supply chains are.
JUNE 2025 REGIONAL KEY FINDINGS
- ASIA: Index rises to -0.27, from -0.40, indicating a pick-up in Asian market activity, but the region's supply chains remain underutilized overall. This mostly reflects subdued factory conditions in Southeast Asia.
- NORTH AMERICA: Index rises to -0.06, from -0.24 as US manufacturers ramp up purchasing sharply ahead of the tariff pause coming to an end. North American supply chains effectively ran at full capacity in June.
- EUROPE: Index rises to 0.01, from -0.30, signaling full capacity utilization across Europe's supply chains in June as the continent's industrial sector emerges from its prolonged downturn.
- U.K.: Index rises to -0.41, from -0.97, its highest for seven months, but still indicative of an elevated level of slack across the U.K.'s supply chains.
JUNE 2025 KEY FINDINGS
- DEMAND: Global factory purchasing activity continued to trend upwards in June, with demand at its most robust in just over a year. This was driven by a considerable rise in North America, driven by the US, as manufacturers ramped up buying ahead of the pause on US tariffs coming to an end.
- INVENTORIES: There were increased reports from businesses of a rise in stockpiling due to price or supply concerns during June. Mentions of safety buffers being built into warehouses were their highest so far in 2025 globally, with the prospect of higher tariffs driving procurement managers into precautionary action.
- MATERIAL SHORTAGES: The global item shortages indicator, which measures the prevalence of supply problems, remains historically low, indicating robust availability.
- LABOR SHORTAGES: Suppliers' workforce capacity remains sufficient to process current order loads, according to our data. Reports of manufacturing backlogs rising due to staff shortages remain stable at historically typical levels.
- TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs were once again in line with their long-term average in June. Reports from surveyed businesses of logistic cost pressures remain anchored.
For more information, visit www.gep.com/volatility.
Note: Full historical data dating back to January 2005 is available for subscription. Please contact economics@spglobal.com.
The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, Aug. 12, 2025.
About the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI® surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global. For more information about the methodology, click here.
About GEP
GEP® delivers AI-powered procurement and supply chain solutions that help global enterprises become more agile and resilient, operate more efficiently and effectively, gain competitive advantage, boost profitability and increase shareholder value. Headquartered in Clark, New Jersey, GEP has offices and operations centers across Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas. To learn more, visit www.gep.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) S&P Global provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
Media Contacts
Derek Creevey
Joe Hayes
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Director, Public Relations
Principal Economist
Corporate Communications
GEP
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Email: Press.mi@spglobal.com
Phone: +1 646-276-4579
Phone: +44-1344-328-099
Email:
Email:
derek.creevey@gep.com
joe.hayes@spglobal.com
** The press release content is from PR Newswire. Bastille Post is not involved in its creation. **
TARIFF PAUSE SPURS GLOBAL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY IN JUNE, WITH GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS NOW OPERATING CLOSE TO FULL CAPACITY: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
TARIFF PAUSE SPURS GLOBAL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY IN JUNE, WITH GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS NOW OPERATING CLOSE TO FULL CAPACITY: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
TARIFF PAUSE SPURS GLOBAL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY IN JUNE, WITH GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS NOW OPERATING CLOSE TO FULL CAPACITY: GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX
|
HONG KONG, Dec. 29, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- CNN's Tomorrow Transformed examines how society and businesses are changing through innovation and technology, and what this means for the future. The latest episode examines the diverse innovations driving a cleaner future – from making the aviation industry greener through sustainable jet fuel to advancing solar efficiency and developing revolutionary hydrogen power solutions.
Tomorrow Transformed travels to Sydney, Australia, to explore the global energy revolution being led by the University of New South Wales (UNSW). Known as a "hotbed of innovation" in photovoltaics, the institution is home to Professor Martin Green, the "father of solar energy," whose PERC Cell design is used in over 90% of solar cells installed worldwide. At UNSW, Professor Ned Ekins-Daukes and PhD student Jamie Harrison are demonstrating how thermodynamics can be used to harvest energy as heat leaves the earth's surface for the cold sky. While solar now provides the cheapest energy in history, researchers are pushing further to eliminate manufacturing bottlenecks. Vince Allen, co-founder of the startup SunDrive, is pioneering a shift away from expensive and rare silver in solar cell production, replacing it with copper - a material that is 1000 times more abundant and 100 times cheaper.
The journey continues to Cape Town, South Africa, where HYENA (Hydrogen Energy Applications) is reimagining how the world's most abundant element can provide reliable power to the African continent. CNN speaks with HYENA co-founder Jack Fletcher to explore how their "Power Pod" technology uses hydrogen to offer a quieter, more efficient, and significantly cleaner alternative to traditional diesel generators. By converting available fuels like LPG into electricity via a chemical process rather than combustion, the system drastically reduces emissions and eliminates the noise of a standard engine.
Lastly, Tomorrow Transformed visits Hong Kong-based biofuels company, EcoCeres, in the southern region of Johor in Malaysia. A global leader in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), EcoCeres is helping to power a more environmentally friendly future for air travel through advanced, low carbon jet fuel made from renewable resources.
In its state-of-the-art biorefinery, the company is re-engineering waste and residue oil, known as 'feedstock', from food factories, palm oil mills and restaurants across the region. The end product is an eco jet fuel that has the right freezing point and structure for flying at cruising altitude, ready to be pumped directly into waiting airplanes. At full capacity, the biorefinery will be able to produce 420,000 tonnes of fuel per year, with large quantities of SAF powering partner airlines including Cathay Pacific, Qantas and British Airways.
Matti Lievonen, CEO of EcoCeres, though proud of the science behind transforming waste feedstock into a viable jet fuel alternative, states that the real innovation is in the system his company has in place. EcoCeres is actively expanding its presence across Southeast Asia to complement its existing refinery and strong feedstock network in China and is looking to replicate this model in other markets.
In the very near future, the next flight you take may be powered by recycled cooking oil from a restaurant in Beijing, street food stalls in Malaysia or from a factory that produces your favourite brand of potato chips.
Tomorrow Transformed trailers: https://bit.ly/3KWFFfF
Tomorrow Transformed images: https://bit.ly/4jb0DE9
Airtimes for 30-minute special:
Sunday, 28th December at 5am, 12pm and 8pm HKT
About CNN International
CNN's portfolio of news and information services is available in seven different languages across all major TV, digital and mobile platforms, reaching more than 379 million households around the globe. CNN International is the number one international TV news channel according to all major media surveys across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America and has a US presence that includes CNNgo. CNN Digital is a leading network for online news, mobile news and social media. CNN is at the forefront of digital innovation and continues to invest heavily in expanding its digital global footprint, with a suite of award-winning digital properties and a range of strategic content partnerships, commercialised through a strong data-driven understanding of audience behaviours. CNN has won multiple prestigious awards around the world for its journalism. Around 1,000 hours of long-form series, documentaries and specials are produced every year by CNNI's non-news programming division. CNN has 36 editorial offices and more than 1,100 affiliates worldwide through CNN Newsource. CNN International is a Warner Bros. Discovery company.
HONG KONG, Dec. 29, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- CNN's Tomorrow Transformed examines how society and businesses are changing through innovation and technology, and what this means for the future. The latest episode examines the diverse innovations driving a cleaner future – from making the aviation industry greener through sustainable jet fuel to advancing solar efficiency and developing revolutionary hydrogen power solutions.
Tomorrow Transformed travels to Sydney, Australia, to explore the global energy revolution being led by the University of New South Wales (UNSW). Known as a "hotbed of innovation" in photovoltaics, the institution is home to Professor Martin Green, the "father of solar energy," whose PERC Cell design is used in over 90% of solar cells installed worldwide. At UNSW, Professor Ned Ekins-Daukes and PhD student Jamie Harrison are demonstrating how thermodynamics can be used to harvest energy as heat leaves the earth's surface for the cold sky. While solar now provides the cheapest energy in history, researchers are pushing further to eliminate manufacturing bottlenecks. Vince Allen, co-founder of the startup SunDrive, is pioneering a shift away from expensive and rare silver in solar cell production, replacing it with copper - a material that is 1000 times more abundant and 100 times cheaper.
The journey continues to Cape Town, South Africa, where HYENA (Hydrogen Energy Applications) is reimagining how the world's most abundant element can provide reliable power to the African continent. CNN speaks with HYENA co-founder Jack Fletcher to explore how their "Power Pod" technology uses hydrogen to offer a quieter, more efficient, and significantly cleaner alternative to traditional diesel generators. By converting available fuels like LPG into electricity via a chemical process rather than combustion, the system drastically reduces emissions and eliminates the noise of a standard engine.
Lastly, Tomorrow Transformed visits Hong Kong-based biofuels company, EcoCeres, in the southern region of Johor in Malaysia. A global leader in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), EcoCeres is helping to power a more environmentally friendly future for air travel through advanced, low carbon jet fuel made from renewable resources.
In its state-of-the-art biorefinery, the company is re-engineering waste and residue oil, known as 'feedstock', from food factories, palm oil mills and restaurants across the region. The end product is an eco jet fuel that has the right freezing point and structure for flying at cruising altitude, ready to be pumped directly into waiting airplanes. At full capacity, the biorefinery will be able to produce 420,000 tonnes of fuel per year, with large quantities of SAF powering partner airlines including Cathay Pacific, Qantas and British Airways.
Matti Lievonen, CEO of EcoCeres, though proud of the science behind transforming waste feedstock into a viable jet fuel alternative, states that the real innovation is in the system his company has in place. EcoCeres is actively expanding its presence across Southeast Asia to complement its existing refinery and strong feedstock network in China and is looking to replicate this model in other markets.
In the very near future, the next flight you take may be powered by recycled cooking oil from a restaurant in Beijing, street food stalls in Malaysia or from a factory that produces your favourite brand of potato chips.
Tomorrow Transformed trailers: https://bit.ly/3KWFFfF
Tomorrow Transformed images: https://bit.ly/4jb0DE9
Airtimes for 30-minute special:
Sunday, 28th December at 5am, 12pm and 8pm HKT
About CNN International
CNN's portfolio of news and information services is available in seven different languages across all major TV, digital and mobile platforms, reaching more than 379 million households around the globe. CNN International is the number one international TV news channel according to all major media surveys across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America and has a US presence that includes CNNgo. CNN Digital is a leading network for online news, mobile news and social media. CNN is at the forefront of digital innovation and continues to invest heavily in expanding its digital global footprint, with a suite of award-winning digital properties and a range of strategic content partnerships, commercialised through a strong data-driven understanding of audience behaviours. CNN has won multiple prestigious awards around the world for its journalism. Around 1,000 hours of long-form series, documentaries and specials are produced every year by CNNI's non-news programming division. CNN has 36 editorial offices and more than 1,100 affiliates worldwide through CNN Newsource. CNN International is a Warner Bros. Discovery company.
** The press release content is from PR Newswire. Bastille Post is not involved in its creation. **
CNN's Tomorrow Transformed explores global innovations powering a greener future
