Which team has the best chance to go from worst to first in NFL in 2025?

A team going from worst to first in the division is nearly an annual occurrence in the NFL.

With last-place teams getting advantages like favorable schedules and higher draft picks, there have been 25 teams since the 2002 realignment that followed up a last-place finish with a division title the following year.

While no team pulled off the trick last season, it had happened least once in each of the previous four seasons. Perhaps no team is better positioned to do it this season than the San Francisco 49ers, who followed up a Super Bowl loss in the 2023 season with a 6-11 last-place finish in 2024.

The Niners were done in by a string of injuries to key players and now head into the 2025 season with the weakest projected schedule thanks in part to three games against fellow last-place teams Chicago, the New York Giants and Cleveland.

Here’s a look at the contenders based on their odds to finish first from BetMGM Sportsbook:

BetMGM odds to win division: +165.

Reason for optimism: The 49ers still have star power with players like Fred Warner, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams and one of the top offensive coaches in the game in Kyle Shanahan. With the last-place schedule and a rotation that includes eight games against the weaker South divisions, the Niners are favored to win the NFC West.

Reason for pessimism: San Francisco let several defensive starters leave in the offseason as part of a movement to get cheaper and younger. But if their rookie class can't step in and contribute immediately, the defense could have some holes even with the return of coordinator Robert Saleh.

BetMGM odds to win division: +475.

Reason for optimism: QB Drake Maye showed flashes as a rookie and should get a boost in Year 2 with a better coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel and coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Reason for pessimism: Maye still has very little support even after the offseason acquisitions of rookie lineman Will Campbell and veteran receiver Stefon Diggs.

BetMGM odds to win division: +550.

Reason for optimism: The Bears brought in the most highly sought after coaching candidate when Ben Johnson was hired after a strong run as offensive coordinator in Detroit. They also upgraded the interior of the offensive line by acquiring Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson in the offseason to help second-year QB Caleb Williams.

Reason for pessimism: Chicago is in a division with three returning playoff teams and has one of the more difficult schedules in the NFL. If Williams' struggles as a rookie were more about holding onto the ball too long instead of the surrounding environment, the upgrades might not be enough.

BetMGM odds to win division: +800.

Reason for optimism: Last year's struggles delivered Tennessee the No. 1 overall pick. QB Cam Ward brings his playmaking ability to Tennessee and should be helped by an improved offensive line following the additions of Dan Moore and Kevin Zeitler and anticipated improvement from recent first-rounders JC Latham and Peter Skoronski.

Reason for pessimism: Ward doesn't have a strong group of pass catchers even after the signing of veteran Tyler Lockett and Tennessee hasn't done much to upgrade a defense that allowed 27.1 points per game last season.

BetMGM odds to win division: +1,300.

Reason for optimism: The offense could get a boost if first-round tackle Kelvin Banks can step in immediately and receivers Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed are healthy.

Reason for pessimism: New Orleans has uncertainty at quarterback after Derek Carr's retirement and is counting on either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or 2024 fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler to perform at a high enough level to compete.

BetMGM odds to win division: +1,500.

Reason for optimism: Perhaps no team upgraded at quarterback and head coach as much as the Raiders with Pete Carroll replacing Antonio Pierce at coach and Geno Smith coming in at quarterback after a platoon of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell. The offense under new coordinator Chip Kelly could be intriguing with record-setting second-year tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.

Reason for pessimism: Las Vegas is in a division that had three playoff teams last season, making it a difficult proposition to climb too high in the standings. There are major questions in the secondary that could prove fatal in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix.

BetMGM odds to win division: +2,800.

Reason for optimism: The Giants should have one of the top defensive lines with No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter joining Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. The return of left tackle Andrew Thomas after he missed 11 games last season should help boost the offense under new quarterback Russell Wilson.

Reason for pessimism: While Wilson may be an upgrade at quarterback, his play has fallen significantly since leaving Seattle following the 2021 season. New York traded up to draft Jaxson Dart in the first round but he might not be ready to take over as a rookie on a team that still has many holes on offense.

BetMGM odds to win division: +3,000.

Reason for optimism: The Browns feature one of the game's top defensive players in four-time All-Pro Myles Garrett after he got a new contract last season and Kevin Stefanski has won AP Coach of the Year twice in five seasons with Cleveland.

Reason for pessimism: Cleveland is still searching for a QB three years after trading for Deshaun Watson. Veteran Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders are all in the mix but none provide immediate hope for success.

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

FILE - Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson watches players during NFL football practice at Halas Hall in Lake Forest, Ill., June 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a pass during practice at the team's NFL football training camp, Wednesday, July 23, 2025, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) stretches during practice at NFL football training camp, Wednesday, July 23, 2025, in Lake Forest, Ill. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass between quarterbacks Brock Purdy (13) and Tanner Mordecai (14) during practice at the team's NFL football training camp, Wednesday, July 23, 2025, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

As Israel unleashed a sweeping military response to the brutal Oct. 7, 2023, assault by Hamas, it aimed punch after punch at the power of Iran, the militant group’s longtime sponsor, and its other proxies and allies in the region.

The result has been a rapid and systematic degradation of Iran’s clout across the Middle East over the past 2½ years, a seismic change that led directly to this weekend’s devastating attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel.

“Certainly the Oct. 7 events were a turning point in this long conflict between Iran and Israel,” said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an expert on Iranian politics at the Missouri University of Science and Technology. “I think it provided Israel with the argument or justification to deliver a strong blow.”

The most devastating hit so far came this weekend when President Donald Trump and Israeli leaders launched a wave of attacks on Iran, killing Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and inflicting widespread destruction. But the war, while still in its early stages, is part of a much longer continuum of events that have severely weakened Iran, Hezbollah and other proxy militias, and upended political balance in the region.

“It’s a very bloody, a very violent but transformative moment that the Middle East is going through,” said Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow focused on the Middle East at Chatham House, a British think tank. “We don’t know where this will end up.”

The damage to Iran’s power radiated from the war in Gaza, where Israeli forces followed Hamas after militants killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages during the Oct. 7 attacks. Israel has since killed more than 72,000 Palestinians in Gaza, nearly half of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry, which is under Gaza’s Hamas government and which does not distinguish between militants and civilians.

The conflict quickly expanded, though, to include other groups in the Iran-sponsored Axis of Resistance.

In Lebanon, the powerful militant group Hezbollah had long been considered Iran’s first line of defense in case of a war with Israel. It was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the group’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah once boasted of having 100,000 fighters.

After Oct. 7, the group launched rockets across the border to Israel, seeking to aid its ally Hamas. That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling and the exchanges escalated into full-scale war in the fall of 2024.

Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of the militant group's arsenal, before a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire nominally halted that conflict last November. Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes.

Hezbollah was further weakened when rebels overthrew the regime of key ally Syrian President Bashar Assad, cutting off a major supply route for Iranian weapons.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, also sponsored by Iran, joined the expanding conflict, firing rockets at vessels in the Red Sea and targeting Israel. U.S. warships and the Israeli military returned fire.

As the conflict expanded, leaders of Iran and its proxies failed to recognize that Israel had abandoned the long-tense status quo and was trying to engineer a fundamental shift, Mansour said.

The toll on Iran escalated last June when Israel launched a surprise offensive aimed at decimating Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program while Iran and the U.S. were in negotiations for a nuclear deal. The 12-day war that followed saw bombing attacks of Iran’s energy industry and Defense Ministry headquarters.

Iran’s weakened proxy groups largely stayed on the sidelines as their sponsor came under direct attack last year. So far in the new war, they've done much the same.

“It’s very much about survival” for Hezbollah and the other Iran-backed groups, Mansour said. He noted that over time the Axis had become less driven by top-down orders from Iran, and the groups have become more autonomous. “And survival to them is based on calculations that aren’t necessarily about Iran’s survival.”

Since Israel and the U.S. launched a barrage of strikes on Iran Saturday, Tehran’s allies and proxies in the region have had a minimal role in the response.

Hezbollah appeared to change that early Monday, even though the group has been under great pressure by Lebanese officials not to enter the fray in defense of Iran out of fear of another damaging war in Lebanon.

Hezbollah issued statements condemning the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and mourning the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Then it hinted it might get involved. Early Monday, it did, firing missiles across the border. Israel promptly retaliated with strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut. It was the first time in more than a year that Hezbollah has claimed a strike against Israel.

Hezbollah said in a statement that the strikes were carried out in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei and for “repeated Israeli aggressions.”

How other proxy groups could react to Khamenei's death remains to be seen. Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Israel's actions since 2023 may give such groups pause.

“Previous bouts of conflict since Oct. 7 appear to have underlined the existential risk associated with making yourself a target,” Lister said in an email responding to questions from The Associated Press.

In Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed militias calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed several drone strikes targeting U.S. bases in Irbil, the capital of the semiautonomous Kurdish region in the country’s north. The extent of damage caused by the attacks is not clear. But the Kurdish region has seen widespread power outages after a key gas field that supplies much of the region’s electricity stopped operations, citing security concerns.

Two officials with different Iran-backed militias in Iraq told the AP that a meeting took place two months ago between Iranian officials and allied Iraqi militias to make plans for a response in case Iran was attacked, including distributing tasks among the Iraqi armed groups.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. One of the officials said it was decided that the response would target U.S. forces and interests in Iraq’s semiautonomous northern Kurdish region and in neighboring Jordan.

There's often a misconception that Iran issues orders to its proxy militant groups and they all fall in line, Boroujerdi said. But independent decisions the groups have made so far to stay clear of the conflict are a sign of the overall weakening of Iran's network.

“The dominoes started to fall with the October 7 events,” Boroujerdi said. “Just take note of everything that has changed since then in terms of the balance of power.”

Associated Press writer Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad contributed to this report.

Hezbollah supporters shout slogans as they gather to mourn the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the southern Suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Hezbollah supporters gather to mourn the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the southern Suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

A Hezbollah supporter holds up a portrait of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a gathering in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, March 1, 2026. The Arabic words on the portrait read:"Martyrdom of the leader of the Islamic revolution in Iran, sayyed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei." (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)