Which team has the best chance to go from worst to first in NFL in 2025?

A team going from worst to first in the division is nearly an annual occurrence in the NFL.

With last-place teams getting advantages like favorable schedules and higher draft picks, there have been 25 teams since the 2002 realignment that followed up a last-place finish with a division title the following year.

While no team pulled off the trick last season, it had happened least once in each of the previous four seasons. Perhaps no team is better positioned to do it this season than the San Francisco 49ers, who followed up a Super Bowl loss in the 2023 season with a 6-11 last-place finish in 2024.

The Niners were done in by a string of injuries to key players and now head into the 2025 season with the weakest projected schedule thanks in part to three games against fellow last-place teams Chicago, the New York Giants and Cleveland.

Here’s a look at the contenders based on their odds to finish first from BetMGM Sportsbook:

BetMGM odds to win division: +165.

Reason for optimism: The 49ers still have star power with players like Fred Warner, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams and one of the top offensive coaches in the game in Kyle Shanahan. With the last-place schedule and a rotation that includes eight games against the weaker South divisions, the Niners are favored to win the NFC West.

Reason for pessimism: San Francisco let several defensive starters leave in the offseason as part of a movement to get cheaper and younger. But if their rookie class can't step in and contribute immediately, the defense could have some holes even with the return of coordinator Robert Saleh.

BetMGM odds to win division: +475.

Reason for optimism: QB Drake Maye showed flashes as a rookie and should get a boost in Year 2 with a better coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel and coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Reason for pessimism: Maye still has very little support even after the offseason acquisitions of rookie lineman Will Campbell and veteran receiver Stefon Diggs.

BetMGM odds to win division: +550.

Reason for optimism: The Bears brought in the most highly sought after coaching candidate when Ben Johnson was hired after a strong run as offensive coordinator in Detroit. They also upgraded the interior of the offensive line by acquiring Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson in the offseason to help second-year QB Caleb Williams.

Reason for pessimism: Chicago is in a division with three returning playoff teams and has one of the more difficult schedules in the NFL. If Williams' struggles as a rookie were more about holding onto the ball too long instead of the surrounding environment, the upgrades might not be enough.

BetMGM odds to win division: +800.

Reason for optimism: Last year's struggles delivered Tennessee the No. 1 overall pick. QB Cam Ward brings his playmaking ability to Tennessee and should be helped by an improved offensive line following the additions of Dan Moore and Kevin Zeitler and anticipated improvement from recent first-rounders JC Latham and Peter Skoronski.

Reason for pessimism: Ward doesn't have a strong group of pass catchers even after the signing of veteran Tyler Lockett and Tennessee hasn't done much to upgrade a defense that allowed 27.1 points per game last season.

BetMGM odds to win division: +1,300.

Reason for optimism: The offense could get a boost if first-round tackle Kelvin Banks can step in immediately and receivers Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed are healthy.

Reason for pessimism: New Orleans has uncertainty at quarterback after Derek Carr's retirement and is counting on either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or 2024 fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler to perform at a high enough level to compete.

BetMGM odds to win division: +1,500.

Reason for optimism: Perhaps no team upgraded at quarterback and head coach as much as the Raiders with Pete Carroll replacing Antonio Pierce at coach and Geno Smith coming in at quarterback after a platoon of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell. The offense under new coordinator Chip Kelly could be intriguing with record-setting second-year tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.

Reason for pessimism: Las Vegas is in a division that had three playoff teams last season, making it a difficult proposition to climb too high in the standings. There are major questions in the secondary that could prove fatal in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix.

BetMGM odds to win division: +2,800.

Reason for optimism: The Giants should have one of the top defensive lines with No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter joining Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. The return of left tackle Andrew Thomas after he missed 11 games last season should help boost the offense under new quarterback Russell Wilson.

Reason for pessimism: While Wilson may be an upgrade at quarterback, his play has fallen significantly since leaving Seattle following the 2021 season. New York traded up to draft Jaxson Dart in the first round but he might not be ready to take over as a rookie on a team that still has many holes on offense.

BetMGM odds to win division: +3,000.

Reason for optimism: The Browns feature one of the game's top defensive players in four-time All-Pro Myles Garrett after he got a new contract last season and Kevin Stefanski has won AP Coach of the Year twice in five seasons with Cleveland.

Reason for pessimism: Cleveland is still searching for a QB three years after trading for Deshaun Watson. Veteran Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders are all in the mix but none provide immediate hope for success.

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

FILE - Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson watches players during NFL football practice at Halas Hall in Lake Forest, Ill., June 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a pass during practice at the team's NFL football training camp, Wednesday, July 23, 2025, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) stretches during practice at NFL football training camp, Wednesday, July 23, 2025, in Lake Forest, Ill. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass between quarterbacks Brock Purdy (13) and Tanner Mordecai (14) during practice at the team's NFL football training camp, Wednesday, July 23, 2025, in Santa Clara, Calif. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

PARIS (AP) — After letting another big lead slip with an error-strewn performance at the French Open, top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka felt like getting as far away from the courts as possible.

“Just want to quit tennis right now,” Sabalenka said after wasting a lead of a set and two breaks in a 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 loss to Diana Shnaider in the quarterfinals on Wednesday. “We’ll see in few days. Hopefully I’ll get back on track mentally.”

Sabalenka's wait for a first French Open title continues despite the four-time major winner leading 4-1 in the second set and being two points from victory while serving for the match at 5-4. What followed was a complete collapse as she lost 12 of the last 13 games against a player appearing in her first Grand Slam quarterfinal, looking increasingly frustrated and forlorn in the windy conditions.

Just like her loss to Coco Gauff in last year's final, when she also won the first set before becoming undone with a slew of unforced errors, this one will take some time to get over.

“You know those rooms where you just go in and you smash everything,” Sabalenka said. “Probably I will spend a whole day tomorrow over there destroying stuff. Maybe it will help, maybe not.”

Shnaider next faces Maja Chwalinska, who extended her remarkable Roland Garros run by beating No. 22-seeded Anna Kalinskaya 7-6 (3), 6-3.

In the men’s quarterfinals, 10th-seeded Flavio Cobolli beat No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 and will face fellow Italian Matteo Arnaldi for a spot in the final.

Arnaldi advanced when Matteo Berrettini, yet another Italian, retired due to a left hip injury with Arnaldi leading 7-5, 5-2.

Berrettini had his hip treated during a medical timeout earlier in the second set.

The strong Italian showing comes despite top-ranked Jannik Sinner getting stunned in the second round.

Second-seeded Alexander Zverev and No. 26 Jakub Mensik will meet in the other semifinal.

Sabalenka stood still and screamed loudly after losing a point to fall 0-30 down in the sixth game of the decider and, although she saved two match points at 0-40 down, she lost when she sent a shot into the net.

“I just think it’s combination of everything,” Sabalenka lamented. “You overthink, then you make easy mistakes, then you miss opportunities.”

Her struggles were reminiscent of the match against Gauff, when she remonstrated loudly, shouting to herself and glaring at her team box.

“I just have to sit back and openly think about what’s going on in my head in those tough moments,” Sabalenka said, recalling that match. “Because I’m quite an experienced player. I have been through so many things, and I overcome so many things.”

Sabalenka had already looked agitated when serving for the first set but still looked in control as she served for the match in the second, holding a 30-15 lead.

“Of course I saw some moments of her frustration,” Shnaider said. “I know Aryna, that she’s a very emotional person."

Shnaider, who was already on her best run at a major, broke Sabelenka before taking complete control.

“Well, honestly I am speechless. Super happy,” Shnaider said. “I feel like I was trying to focus point by point. Not thinking about the score. She is the world No. 1, so I just trying to do my best. I just had to fight for every point.”

Sabalenka looked increasingly frustrated as the third set wore on, and when she missed a volley at the net in the fourth game of the decider she crouched and rested her head on her racket.

It was another big upset in a tournament where defending champion Gauff (third round) and four-time winner Iga Swiatek (fourth round) already tumbled out.

Sinner, last year's runner-up, served for the match in a second-round defeat, and 24-time major winner Novak Djokovic wasted a two-set lead in a third-round loss.

That opened things up for lesser-known players. According to Opta, this is the first major without a former champion in either the men’s and women’s semifinals since the French Open in 1977.

The unseeded Chwalinska came through three qualifying rounds to become only the second Polish woman to reach the semifinals at Roland Garros, along with Swiatek.

Chwalinska said British player Emma Raducanu’s run to the 2021 U.S. Open title as an 18-year-old qualifier had inspired her.

“It was such an impressive run, you know,” Chwalinska recalled. “Also, she was so young.”

When Kalinskaya’s big forehand from the back of the court went out, the 24-year-old Chwalinska had her biggest win, having never been beyond the second round at any major before this tournament.

Chwalinska’s total prize money heading into Roland Garros was $864,030 and reaching the last four here earns her 750,000 euros (about $872,000).

The roof was open on Court Philippe-Chatrier and there was a lot of wind.

“I don’t know why would they keep the roof open when it was crazy windy,” Sabalenka said. “It was very dirty tennis. I don’t know how people could actually just sit there and watch me play.”

Kalinskaya also struggled.

AP tennis: https://apnews.com/hub/tennis

Italy's Flavio Cobolli reacts after winning the quarterfinal tennis match against Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime at the French Open in Paris, Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)

Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus hugs Russia's Diana Shnaider after the quarterfinal tennis match at the French Open in Paris, Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Emma Da Silva)

Russia's Diana Shnaider reacts after winning the quarterfinal tennis match against Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus at the French Open in Paris, Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Emma Da Silva)

Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus reacts after losing the quarterfinal tennis match against Russia's Diana Shnaider at the French Open in Paris, Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Emma Da Silva)

Russia's Anna Kalinskaya walks off the court after the quarterfinal tennis match against Poland's Maja Chwalinska at the French Open in Paris, Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)

Poland's Maja Chwalinska reacts after winning the quarterfinal tennis match against Russia's Anna Kalinskaya at the French Open in Paris, Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)

Poland's Maja Chwalinska reacts after winning the quarterfinal tennis match against Russia's Anna Kalinskaya at the French Open in Paris, Wednesday, June 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Emma Da Silva)