NEW YORK (AP) — Most Americans want Congress to extend tax credits that, if left to expire at the end of the year, could raise health insurance costs for millions of Americans, according to a new poll released Friday from the health care research nonprofit KFF.
The survey, which was conducted from Sept. 23-29, just prior to the shutdown that began Wednesday, shows initial public support for a move that Democrats have been demanding be included in any government funding bill they sign. A Senate standoff, in part over the enhanced premium tax credits set to end in 2025 if Congress doesn’t act, has resulted in a government shutdown that’s lasted into a third day with no end in sight.
At the same time, the survey showed that only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults had read “a lot” or “some” about the subsidies as the shutdown began, leaving room for public opinion to shift in either direction as the political fight continues. A New York Times/Siena poll of registered voters conducted roughly in the same time period as the KFF poll found that most voters did not want Democrats to shut down the government, even if their demands were not met.
Republicans in Congress have expressed openness to negotiating the extension, but argue it can wait until government funding is restored through a stopgap measure they say is noncontroversial.
The vast majority of Democrats supported the extended tax credits, the poll found, but so did a slimmer majority of Republicans. Those who wanted the health care subsidies to continue were more likely to say they would blame President Donald Trump or the Republicans than Democrats if the credits expired.
At stake is the cost of health insurance for the 24 million people who have signed up for health coverage through the ACA, in part encouraged by the billions of dollars in subsidies that made it more affordable for many people.
According to the KFF poll, about 3 in 4 Americans — 78% — said that they wanted Congress to extend expiring tax credits for people who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace.
That view cuts across party lines, including majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans. More than half of Republicans who align with President Trump's Make America Great Again movement — 57% — also supported an extension, the poll found.
The expanded subsidies, first passed in 2021 and extended a year later, allow some low-income enrollees to access health plans with no premiums and cap high earners' premiums at 8.5% of their income. When they expire, ACA premiums will more than double for the average ACA enrollee, according to another KFF analysis.
KFF's new poll shows that if the subsidies aren't extended by the start of the Nov. 1 open enrollment period, many Americans who buy their own health insurance could be caught unaware that their premiums are set to rise next year.
About 6 in 10 people who have self-purchased insurance said they had heard “a little” or “nothing” about the tax credits' expiration.
Asked if they could afford nearly double the cost they pay in health insurance premiums, 70% of people who purchase insurance through the ACA Marketplace said they could not do this without significantly disrupting their household finances. About 4 in 10 said they’d go without health insurance coverage if their premiums rose that much, while a similar share said they would keep paying and 22% would seek insurance from another source, like an employer or spouse's employer.
The poll found that just before the shutdown began, Americans who supported the tax credits were more likely to blame Republicans, who hold the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress, if the subsidies are left to expire at the end of the year. According to the poll, about 8 in 10 U.S. adults who wanted the subsidies extended said either Trump or Republicans in Congress would deserve most of the blame, while about 2 in 10 said they would blame Democrats in Congress.
In general, though, Democrats were more likely than Republicans or independents to be aware of the pending expiration, leaving room for views to shift as the issue rises in prominence.
The findings come as a recent poll from The Washington Post also found more Americans lay blame for the shutdown on Trump and congressional Republicans than on congressional Democrats, though the findings were preliminary and many respondents were unsure.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries on Thursday said that millions of Americans are facing "dramatically increased health care premiums, co-pays and deductibles because of the Republican unwillingness to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits.”
Republican leaders, meanwhile, say Democrats are holding the government hostage over a decision that does not need to be tied to the immediate restoration of government funding.
“Real pain is being inflicted on the American people” because of Democrats' refusal to vote for the Republican legislation to fund the government, House Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., center, flanked by Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., left, and Rep. Katherine Clark, D-Mass., arrives to speak on the steps of the Capitol to insist that Republicans include an extension of expiring health care benefits as part of a government funding compromise, in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., and GOP leaders, from left, Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., blame the government shutdown on Democrats during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
House Democrats prepare to speak on the steps of the Capitol to insist that Republicans include an extension of expiring health care benefits as part of a government funding compromise, in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Steel: 50%. Copper: 50%. Cars: up to 25%. But an even bigger Trump-era levy looms: 107 % on Italian pasta.
Mamma mia.
It started with the U.S. Commerce Department launching what it says was a routine antidumping review, based on allegations Italian pasta makers sold product into the US at below-market prices and undercut local competitors. That has led to a threat of 92% duties, which would come on top of the 15% tariff President Donald Trump’s administration imposed on European exports generally.
The news sent shockwaves through Italy, where 13 producers would be subject to the whopping one-two punch. They say sales in their second biggest export market would shrivel if prices to American consumers more than double. And while the measure would hardly prompt pasta shortages, it still has perplexed importers like Sal Auriemma, whose shop in Philadelphia’s Italian market, Claudio Specialty Food, has been operating for over 60 years.
“Pasta is a pretty small sector to pick on. I mean, there’s a lot bigger things to pick on," said Auriemma, pointing to luxury items as an alternative.
But pasta? “It’s basic food,” he said. "Something’s got to be sacred.”
Italy is a nation of avid pasta eaters. Less known is that most of the tortellini, spaghetti and rigatoni its factories churn out gets sent abroad. The U.S. accounts for about 15% of its €4 billion ($4.65 billion) in exports, making it Italy’s largest market after Germany, data from farmers’ association Coldiretti show.
The punitive pasta premium has become a cause célèbre for Italy’s politicians, executives and economists. Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida told lawmakers in mid-October that the government was working with the European Commission and engaging in diplomatic efforts, while supporting the companies’ legal actions to oppose U.S. sanctions.
EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic addressed reporters in Rome last month, stressing the lack of evidence backing the U.S. decision and calling the combined 107% levy “unacceptable.”
Margherita Mastromauro, president of the pasta makers sector of Unione Italiana Food, told The Associated Press that prices for Italian pasta in the U.S. remain high, and certainly higher than American-made rivals — undermining any dumping claim.
She said that the measures could deal a fatal blow to small- and medium-sized producers. Lucio Miranda, president of consultancy group Export USA, agreed.
“A duty rate of 107% would definitely kill this flow of export,” Miranda, who is Italian, said by phone from New York. “It’s not going to be something that you can just dump on the consumer and move on, life continues. It will definitely be a deal killer.”
The Commerce Department’s investigation started in 2024 after complaints from Missouri-based 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, which owns pasta brand Ronzoni, and Illinois-based Winland Foods, whose multiple brands include Prince, Mueller’s and Wacky Mac.
The office’s review focused on La Molisana and Garofalo, chosen as primary respondents because they are Italy’s two largest exporters, the Commerce Department said in an emailed statement. Any sale price below either producers’ costs or the price they charge in the Italian market would be considered dumping, in line with numerous other reviews of Italian pasta since 1996, it said.
The two companies presented information incorrectly or withheld it, significantly impeding analysis, according to the Commerce Department. And in the face of these alleged deficiencies, the office presented its 92% duty estimate, which it extended to 11 other companies based on an assumption the two companies’ behavior was representative.
“After they screwed up their initial responses, the Commerce Department explained to them what the problems were and asked them to fix those problems; they didn’t,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in an emailed response to the AP's questions. “And then Commerce communicated the requirements again, and they didn’t answer for a third time.”
La Molisana declined to comment when contacted by the AP. Garofalo didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The sanctions would be applied not just to imports going forward, but also the 12 months through June 2024, according to the Commerce Department. It added that only 16% of total Italian pasta imports may be affected. Its final decision is scheduled for Jan. 2, which could be extended by 60 days.
A little over an hour’s drive northeast from Naples is Benevento, a sleepy hilltop town of 55,000 people famed for its ancient Roman theater and Aglianico red wine. It’s also home to Pasta Rummo, founded in 1846, which prides itself on its seven-phase, “slow work” production method.
CEO Cosimo Rummo is outraged by the threat to his company’s annual 20 million euros in exports to the U.S.
“These tariffs are completely senseless,” Rummo said in a phone interview. “These are fast-moving consumer goods … Who would ever buy a pack of pasta that costs 10 dollars, the same price as a bottle of wine?”
He added that he has no intention to start producing pasta stateside, as some companies have done and so would be spared the prospective levy. That includes Barilla, which for decades has been the main Italian pasta brand in the U.S. and now has large-scale production facilities there.
When the transatlantic imbroglio started simmering, Robert Tramonte of Arlington, Virginia sought assurances. The owner of The Italian Store called his supplier, who told him there’s enough pasta inventory stocked in the warehouse to keep prices steady until Easter.
Tramonte’s clients count on him for top-shelf product and he was relieved that, at least for the time being, they won’t have to shell out for the real deal. Or worse -- perish the thought! -- purchase made-in-America pasta.
“They’ve tried to make Italian products and use the same ingredients, but the source wasn’t Italy,” he said. “And they just didn’t taste the same.”
Zampano reported from Rome and Wiseman from Washington. Associated Press videojournalists Paolo Santalucia in Rome and Tassanee Vejpongsa in Philadelphia contributed to this report.
Boxes of imported Italian pasta are seen on shelves, Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
Packages of imported Italian pasta sit on shelves Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)
