The world is heading to add 57 superhot days a year, but study indicates it could have been worse

WASHINGTON (AP) — The world is on track to add nearly two months of dangerous superhot days each year by the end of the century, with poorer small nations hit far more often than the biggest carbon-polluting countries, a study released Thursday found.

But efforts to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases that started 10 years ago with the Paris climate agreement have had a significant effect. Without them Earth would be heading to an additional 114 days a year of those deadly extra hot days, the same study found.

The international collection of climate scientists World Weather Attribution and the U.S.-based Climate Central teamed up to use computer simulations to calculate just how much of a difference the landmark accord has made in terms of one of the biggest climate effects on people: heat waves.

The report — which is not yet peer-reviewed but uses established techniques for climate attribution — calculated how many superhot days the world and more than 200 countries got in 2015, how many Earth gets now and what's projected in two future scenarios.

One scenario is if countries fulfill their promises to curb emissions and by the year 2100 the world warms 2.6 Celsius (4.7 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times. That adds 57 superhot days to what Earth gets now, according to the study. The other scenario is the 4 C (7.2 F) of warming that the world had been on track to hit before the Paris agreement. The study found that would double the number of additional hot days.

“There will be pain and suffering because of climate change,” said Climate Central Vice President for Science Kristina Dahl, a report co-author. “But if you look at this difference between 4 degrees C of warming and 2.6 degrees C of warming, that reflects the last 10 years and the ambitions that people have put forth. And to me, that’s encouraging.”

Nearly 200 nations gather next month in Brazil for international climate negotiations. Numerous groups of scientists, analysts and advocates are compiling reports that show the same mixed bag: The 2015 Paris agreement has made strides in the fight against climate change but it's too little and too slow.

Northern Illinois University climate scientist Victor Gensini said Thursday's hot day findings “highlight both the success and shortfall of the Paris Agreement."

The study defines superhot days for each location as days that are warmer than 90% of the comparable dates between 1991 and 2020. Since 2015, the world has already added 11 superhot days on average, the report said.

“That heat sends people to the emergency room. Heat kills people,” Dahl said.

The report doesn't say how many people will be affected by the additional dangerously hot days, but co-author Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said that “it will definitely be tens of thousands or millions, not less.” She noted that thousands die in heat waves each year already.

Thursday's study calculated that the weeklong southern Europe heat wave in 2023 is now 70% more likely and 0.6 C (1.1 F) warmer than it would have been 10 years ago when the Paris agreement was signed. And if the world's climate-fighting efforts don't increase, a similar heat wave at the end of the century could be 3 C (5.4 F) hotter, the report estimated.

A heat wave similar to last year's Southwestern United States and Mexico heat wave could be 1.7 degrees Celsius (3.1 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter by the end of the century under the current carbon pollution trajectory, the report said.

Other groups are also finding more than hundreds of thousands of deaths from recent heat waves in peer-reviewed research with much of it because of human-caused climate change, said University of Washington public health and climate scientist Kristie Ebi, who wasn't part of Thursday's report.

More than anything, the data shows how unfair the effects of climate change seem, even under the less extreme of the two scenarios. The scientists broke down how many extra superhot days are expected for each country by the end of the century under that scenario.

The 10 countries that will see the biggest increases in those dangerous heat days are nearly all small and dependent on the ocean, including the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Panama and Indonesia. Panama, for example, can expect 149 extra superhot days. Altogether the top 10 of those countries produced only 1% of the heat-trapping gases now in the air but will get nearly 13% of the additional superhot days.

But top carbon polluting countries, the United States, China and India are predicted to get only between 23 and 30 extra superhot days. They are responsible for 42% of the carbon dioxide in the air, but are getting less than 1% of the additional superhot days.

“This report beautifully and tangibly quantifies what we’ve been saying for decades. The impacts of global warming are going to disproportionally affect developing nations that historically haven’t emitted significant quantities of greenhouse gases,” said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who wasn't part of the study team. “Global warming is driving yet another wedge between have and have not nations; this will ultimately sow seeds of further geopolitical instability.”

Hawaii and Florida are the U.S. states that will see the biggest increase in superhot days by the end of the century under the current carbon pollution trajectory, while Idaho will see the smallest jump, the report found.

While the report makes sense, Potsdam Climate Institute Director Johan Rockstrom, who wasn't part of the research, said people shouldn't be relieved that we are no longer on the 4-degree warming pre-Paris trajectory because the current track "would still imply a disastrous future for billions of humans on Earth.”

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

FILE - Jorge Moreno, a worker, drinks flavored water to cope with the heat wave during his workday at a construction site in Veracruz, Mexico, June 17, 2024. (AP Photo/Felix Marquez, File)

FILE - Pablo Suarez's shirt is bathed in sweat before seven in the morning as he parks cars and provides security for a downtown cafe July 20, 2023, in Mexicali, Mexico. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, File)

FILE - Humanitarian worker Roger Duvan Lagunes carries a fan into Cogra, an elderly shelter, in Veracruz, Mexico, on June 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Felix Marquez)

FILE - A woman fans herself in Madrid, Spain, July 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez, File)

FILE - Grace Chyuwei pours water on Joe Chyuwei to help with the heat Aug. 3, 2025, in Death Valley National Park, Calif. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)

LOS GATOS, Calif. (AP) — Like many retirement communities, The Terraces serves as a tranquil refuge for a nucleus of older people who no longer can travel to faraway places or engaging in bold adventures.

But they can still be thrust back to their days of wanderlust and thrill-seeking whenever caretakers at the community in Los Gatos, California, schedule a date for residents — many of whom are in their 80s and 90s — to take turns donning virtual reality headsets.

Within a matter of minutes, the headsets can transport them to Europe, immerse them in the ocean depths or soar them on breathtaking hang-gliding expeditions while they sit by each other. The selection of VR programming was curated by Rendever, a company that has turned a sometimes isolating form of technology into a catalyst for better cognition and social connections in 800 retirement communities in the United States and Canada.

A group of The Terraces residents who participated in a VR session earlier this year found themselves paddling their arms alongside their chairs as they swam with a pod of dolphins while watching one of Rendever's 3D programs. “We got to go underwater and didn't even have to hold our breath!” exclaimed 81-year-old Ginny Baird following the virtual submersion.

During a session featuring a virtual ride in a hot-air balloon, one resident gasped, “Oh my God!” Another shuddered, “It's hard to watch!”

The Rendever technology can also be used to virtually take older adults back to the places where they grew up as children. For some, it will be the first time they've seen their hometowns in decades.

A virtual trip to her childhood neighborhood in New York City's Queens borough helped sell Sue Livingstone, 84, on the merits of the VR technology even though she still is able to get out more often than many residents of The Terraces, which is located in Silicon Valley about 55 miles south of San Francisco.

“It isn't just about being able to see it again, it's about all the memories that it brings back,” Livingstone said. “There are a few people living here who never really leave their comfort zones. But if you could entice them to come down to try out a headset, they might find that they really enjoy it.”

Adrian Marshall, The Terraces' community life director, said that once word about a VR experience spreads from one resident to another, more of the uninitiated typically become curious enough to try it out — even if it means missing out on playing Mexican Train, a dominoes-like board game that's popular in the community.

“It turns into a conversation starter for them. It really does connect people,” Marshall said of Rendever's VR programming. “It helps create a human bridge that makes them realize they share certain similarities and interests. It turns the artificial world into reality.”

Rendever, a privately owned company based in Somerville, Massachusetts, hopes to build upon its senior living platform with a recent grant from the National Institutes of Health that will provide nearly $4.5 million to study ways to reduce social isolation among seniors living at home and their caregivers.

Some studies have found VR programming presented in a limited viewing format can help older people maintain and improve cognitive functions, burnish memories and foster social connections with their families and fellow residents of care facilities. Experts say the technology may be useful as an addition to and not a replacement for other activities.

“There is always a risk of too much screen time," Katherine “Kate” Dupuis, a neuropsychologist and professor who studies aging issues at Sheridan College in Canada, said. “But if you use it cautiously, with meaning and purpose, it can be very helpful. It can be an opportunity for the elderly to engage with someone and share a sense of wonder.”

VR headsets may be an easier way for older people to interact with technology instead of fumbling around with a smartphone or another device that requires navigating buttons or other mechanisms, said Pallabi Bhowmick, a researcher at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign who is examining the use of VR with older adults.

“The stereotypes that older adults aren’t willing to try new technology needs to change because they are willing and want to adapt to technologies that are meaningful to them,” Bhowmick said. "Besides helping them to relieve stress, be entertained and connect with other people, there is an intergenerational aspect that might help them build their relationships with younger people who find out they use VR and say, ‘Grandpa is cool!’"

Rendever CEO Kyle Rand's interest in helping his own grandmother deal with the emotional and mental challenges of aging pushed him down a path that led him to cofound the company in 2016 after studying neuroengineering at Duke University.

“What really fascinates me about humans is just how much our brain depends on social connection and how much we learn from others,” Rand said. “A group of elderly residents who don't really know each other that well can come together, spend 30 minutes in a VR experience together and then find themselves sitting down to have lunch together while continuing a conversation about the experience.”

It's a large enough market that another VR specialist, Dallas-based Mynd Immersive, competes against Rendever with services tailored for senior living communities.

Besides helping create social connections, the VR programming from both Rendever and Mynd has been employed as a possible tool for potentially slowing down the deleterious effects of dementia. That's how another Silicon Valley retirement village, the Forum, sometimes uses the technology.

Bob Rogallo, a Forum resident with dementia that has rendered him speechless, seemed to be enjoying taking a virtual hike through Glacier National Park in Montana as he nodded and smiled while celebrating his 83rd birthday with his wife of 61 years.

Sallie Rogallo, who doesn't have dementia, said the experience brought back fond memories of the couple's visits to the same park during the more than 30 years they spent cruising around the U.S. in their recreational vehicle.

“It made me wish I was 30 years younger so I could do it again,” she said of the virtual visit to Glacier. “This lets you get out of the same environment and either go to a new place or visit places where you have been.”

In another session at the Forum, 93-year-old Almut Schultz laughed with delight while viewing a virtual classical music performance at the Red Rocks Amphitheatre in Colorado and later seemed to want to play with a puppy frolicking around in her VR headset.

“That was quite a session we had there,” Schultz said with a big grin after she took off her headset and returned to reality.

Rendever CEO Kyle Rand is pictured at Salesforce Park in San Francisco on June 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Jim Holtshouse and his son, Mike Holtshouse, watch video through Rendever virtual-reality headsets at the Forum at Rancho San Antonio retirement community in Cupertino, Calif. on June 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Bob Rogallo watches video through a Rendever virtual-reality headset at the Forum at Rancho San Antonio retirement community in Cupertino, Calif. on June 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Mike Holtshouse and his father, Jim Holtshouse, watch video through Rendever virtual-reality headsets at the Forum at Rancho San Antonio retirement community in Cupertino, Calif. on June 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)

Jim Holtshouse watches video through a Rendever virtual-reality headset at the Forum at Rancho San Antonio retirement community in Cupertino, Calif. on June 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)