Torn Between Two Powers

China's backed Trump into a corner. Over the past few days, he's been throwing around "terminating business with China" threats like confetti. But despite his decoupling bluster, bad news just dropped, and the White House lights are burning bright again tonight as staffers order pizza for another overtime session. What a joy.

Reuters dropped a bombshell: Chinese manufacturers have already lined up alternative buyers beyond the US market. “China's export growth picked up pace in September, buoyed by manufacturers finding buyers in markets beyond the U.S. as a tariff deal with President Donald Trump remained elusive while investors grappled with the latest salvoes in their trade war.”

Chinese exports are absolutely booming—customs data shows over 8% year-on-year growth last month, crushing Reuters' 6% forecast. China's export situation isn't just good. It's excellent.

Meanwhile, Trump's ready with his own playbook. He's raging on social media: “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.”

Then, while hosting Argentine President Milei at the White House, he threw out a warning: "We have to be careful with China." The superpower's run out of cards to play against China, so Trump's hinting that complete decoupling might be on the table. Analysts note this message wasn't just for Milei—it was for every American ally listening.

Trump's pushing for a showdown to apply maximum pressure on China. Since rare earths are threatening America's lifeline, why not just break up completely? The subtext: China has rare earths while America has strength.

Reuters points out that no country matches America's consumer firepower—the US absorbs over $400 billion worth of Chinese goods annually. With China prioritizing economic development, how could it possibly just ditch the American market?

China's Been Planning This All Along

But the hawks and White House team have missed something crucial—China's been preparing for this with long-term strategic resolve. Reuters reports that Chinese policymakers are betting on factory owners expanding sales across Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset trade restrictions and keep this nearly $19 trillion export-driven economy hitting its official 5% annual growth target.

Last year's Nikkei Asia report revealed the shift: China's total trade with the US plummeted from 20% in 2018 to around 11%, with imports dropping to 6.3%—the lowest since China joined the WTO in 2001. The trend's continued this year, with US-bound exports down 30% year-on-year in September and 20% from January through September. At the same time, China's exports to India hit a historic high in August, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records.

Long before Trump's second inauguration, China had already ditched American soybeans for Brazilian ones. Chinese Mainland commentators noted back then that China had achieved trade diversification, arguing that even if Trump launched another trade war, China wouldn't be worried. The logic was simple: China had made full preparations, meaning a trade war wouldn't damage Chinese fundamentals while severely hurting America's vitality. The mutual dependence ratio between the two countries was completely lopsided.）

The reasoning went deeper. Observers pointed out that the US would struggle to achieve de-Sinicization because of China's vast market. The massive population base doesn't just provide cheap labor—it creates an enormous consumer market that's impossible to replace.

The Impossible Choice for US Allies

Then Trump added another line for Milei: "You can do some trade, but you certainly shouldn’t be doing beyond that,“ especially anything to do with the military, or else “I’d be very upset about that”.

In other words, he's forcing Milei to choose—the main theme is "rely on America for security, rely on China for the economy." Simply put, China weighs half a catty, America weighs eight taels—you decide. Reportedly, Milei went silent for a while.

Oh, I get it—I understand what Milei and other American allies are thinking. Ever heard Sam Hui's song "Half a Catty, Eight Taels"? "These days, making a living is tough—where's the ideal balance of half a catty and eight taels?" A backing vocal chimes in—"Hell!"—which perfectly captures the helplessness of being "caught between a rock and a hard place", and squeezed from both sides.

Deep Blue

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Wang Yi's Wake-Up Call

"Japan colonized Taiwan for 50 years, piled up crimes against Chinese people – now its leader's using Taiwan to stir trouble and threaten China with force." – Wang Yi

Should the world tolerate this, then nothing's off-limits.

America's dithering while China charts global civilization's course. Ahead of schedule? No – US and Japan's procrastination demands a brutal cure.

Wang Yi, Political Bureau member and Foreign Minister, met German counterpart Wadephul in Beijing, rolling out the "seven-lock theory" on Taiwan's status with ironclad history and law. America needs to get it straight: muddling to this point means knowing what to chase fast and what to back off from pronto. Don't let twisted ethics spark catastrophe. Heads up – Asia-Pacific's been stormy lately, all from the White House playing with fire.

British historian Arnold Toynbee predicted that the nineteenth century belonged to Britain, the twentieth to America, and the twenty-first to China. Kissinger's 1994 Diplomacy foresaw a century per global power.  

America's Fall, Japan's Rise?

In reality, the U.S. can no longer sustain global hegemony. Russia's Sputnik News Agency quoted mainland Chinese commentator Sima Pingbang as noting that U.S. strategic contraction would inevitably usher in a phase of Japanese expansion across East Asia and the Western Pacific. He highlighted how Tokyo is exploiting Washington's eastward pivot to pursue remilitarization—effectively reviving militarism—through recent overtures to Australia and encouragement of "Taiwan independence" elements aimed at threatening China. 

China stands firmly on the side of justice, prompting Sima Pingbang to emphasize that Beijing can readily forge consensus with longstanding allies like Russia and North Korea due to enduring shared interests. This alignment positions them to implement a "century-long containment" strategy against Japan.  

For instance, as UN Security Council permanent members, China and Russia should coordinate positions on the Takaichi Sanae government's nuclear weapon pursuits and swiftly introduce more targeted, enforceable verification measures. Both nations, as victors in the anti-fascist war, bear inescapable responsibilities for safeguarding global peace and humanity's future.

Another commentator, Zhou Chengyang, noted the US new National Security Strategy vows "never letting any country grow too powerful to threaten US interests." Meanwhile, White House Treasury Secretary Bessent told TV: "America sees China as long-term rival." Note this – but it's just America "declining yet kicking."  

Dual Deterrence Crushes Militarism

In short, calling China-US "equals" today saves face. America ain't what it was. Trump's playbook: "Back to Western Hemisphere, keep an eye on the Pacific, ditch ideology." Taiwan affairs expert Dale Jieh Wen-chieh floats "dual deterrence" – US Taiwan policy isn't just defending Taiwan; it must "deter" both Taiwan and mainland in order to max US gains.

This works perfect on Japan too, especially against an ultra-right government's die-hard ethos. America can't let itself get hijacked for Japanese militarism. Cross China's strategic red line, and America loses its shirt – never mind escaping clean. China's stepping up to fix the world's crumbling order? That's enough to rattle America.

The "Kissinger Law" is sealed. US cleanup window – Europe or Asia-Pacific – slams shut anytime. I'll repeat: mind your own business and take care of yourselves. Fresh news: Early December, Chinese and Russian forces ran their third joint anti-missile drill on Russian soil. Backdrop? Japan's missile buildup with US-exclusive supply.

Tweaking America's own line: China won't cap US growth, won't dominate or humiliate. Face matters, so play smart or it flops.