China's backed Trump into a corner. Over the past few days, he's been throwing around "terminating business with China" threats like confetti. But despite his decoupling bluster, bad news just dropped, and the White House lights are burning bright again tonight as staffers order pizza for another overtime session. What a joy.
Reuters dropped a bombshell: Chinese manufacturers have already lined up alternative buyers beyond the US market. “China's export growth picked up pace in September, buoyed by manufacturers finding buyers in markets beyond the U.S. as a tariff deal with President Donald Trump remained elusive while investors grappled with the latest salvoes in their trade war.”
Chinese exports are absolutely booming—customs data shows over 8% year-on-year growth last month, crushing Reuters' 6% forecast. China's export situation isn't just good. It's excellent.
Meanwhile, Trump's ready with his own playbook. He's raging on social media: “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.”
Then, while hosting Argentine President Milei at the White House, he threw out a warning: "We have to be careful with China." The superpower's run out of cards to play against China, so Trump's hinting that complete decoupling might be on the table. Analysts note this message wasn't just for Milei—it was for every American ally listening.
Trump's pushing for a showdown to apply maximum pressure on China. Since rare earths are threatening America's lifeline, why not just break up completely? The subtext: China has rare earths while America has strength.
Reuters points out that no country matches America's consumer firepower—the US absorbs over $400 billion worth of Chinese goods annually. With China prioritizing economic development, how could it possibly just ditch the American market?
China's Been Planning This All Along
But the hawks and White House team have missed something crucial—China's been preparing for this with long-term strategic resolve. Reuters reports that Chinese policymakers are betting on factory owners expanding sales across Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset trade restrictions and keep this nearly $19 trillion export-driven economy hitting its official 5% annual growth target.
Last year's Nikkei Asia report revealed the shift: China's total trade with the US plummeted from 20% in 2018 to around 11%, with imports dropping to 6.3%—the lowest since China joined the WTO in 2001. The trend's continued this year, with US-bound exports down 30% year-on-year in September and 20% from January through September. At the same time, China's exports to India hit a historic high in August, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records.
Long before Trump's second inauguration, China had already ditched American soybeans for Brazilian ones. Chinese Mainland commentators noted back then that China had achieved trade diversification, arguing that even if Trump launched another trade war, China wouldn't be worried. The logic was simple: China had made full preparations, meaning a trade war wouldn't damage Chinese fundamentals while severely hurting America's vitality. The mutual dependence ratio between the two countries was completely lopsided.）
The reasoning went deeper. Observers pointed out that the US would struggle to achieve de-Sinicization because of China's vast market. The massive population base doesn't just provide cheap labor—it creates an enormous consumer market that's impossible to replace.
The Impossible Choice for US Allies
Then Trump added another line for Milei: "You can do some trade, but you certainly shouldn’t be doing beyond that,“ especially anything to do with the military, or else “I’d be very upset about that”.
In other words, he's forcing Milei to choose—the main theme is "rely on America for security, rely on China for the economy." Simply put, China weighs half a catty, America weighs eight taels—you decide. Reportedly, Milei went silent for a while.
Oh, I get it—I understand what Milei and other American allies are thinking. Ever heard Sam Hui's song "Half a Catty, Eight Taels"? "These days, making a living is tough—where's the ideal balance of half a catty and eight taels?" A backing vocal chimes in—"Hell!"—which perfectly captures the helplessness of being "caught between a rock and a hard place", and squeezed from both sides.
Deep Blue
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When reporters asked about French President Macron refusing to join the Gaza Peace Commission, Trump didn't miss a beat: "Did he say that? Well, nobody wants him because he will be out of office very soon." He added: "I'll put a 200% tariff on his wines and champagnes, and he'll join, but he doesn't have to join." Translation: If even bros get no face, you’re really nobody. Classic Trump.
France represents Europe's core values and has consistently railed against China's so-called "overcapacity." Last year, when Sino-European trade tensions peaked, France's Les Échos quoted the American think tank Rhodium Group: "China’s overcapacity may have an impact on Western economies. In fact, the real losers are countries in the Global South." The analysis attacked both sides—so why did Europe find it music to their ears? Because they never forgot 2013, when the EU sanctioned Chinese solar panels under the banner of anti-dumping. Now those same solar panels, wind turbines, and domestically produced EVs have roared back with a vengeance, hammering European manufacturing.
Trump's "Gaza Peace Commission" Power Play
So what's this Peace Commission all about? The United States has sent invitations to leaders of over 60 countries and international organizations. Yesterday it was confirmed that Putin made the guest list. According to multiple foreign media reports, the White House is demanding that countries pony up over $1 billion in exchange for permanent seats on the “Gaza Peace Commission." Trump, as US President, becomes the Commission's inaugural chairman with personal authority to decide who gets invited. Pay attention—all decisions will be made by majority vote, but must ultimately be approved by the chairman. What does that mean? Dictatorship, plain and simple.
Moreover, the White House will soon announce the membership list. The Commission will be composed of US Secretary of State Rubio, Special Envoy Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law, and others—a cozy family affair with global ambitions.
Don't waste time asking whether the Commission is reasonable, appropriate, or constitutional under US law—that's beside the point. At least the United Nations hasn't issued any statement opposing it so far. You can only ask: "Would Putin really play along with this?" Or: "Has Beijing received an invitation?" Global Times reported: "At the moment, Russia is looking at all the details of this proposal, and hopes to discuss all of the nuances with the Americans."
Some observers believe that "turning the so-called Peace Commission into an institution parallel to the United Nations will undermine the UN's authority and working mechanisms."
The American Genius Complex
Taiwan foreign affairs expert and commentator Jieh Wen-chieh nailed it: if Trump dares to create this Commission, he could later lead America to the moon or Mars—nothing would be surprising! This is 100% what an American genius should do.
Jieh Wen-chieh identifies the key point: Europe is a resource-poor region. When European immigrants discovered that America was a land without boundaries, they found a whole new world. American culture was forged this way: as long as you have "guts," as long as you have "dreams" and dare to do what no one before has done, you are an American hero—the very embodiment of "the American way".
Trump’s hammer falls wherever he pleases: plots to swallow Greenland, and threatens military action against Iran. In the minds of Americans, this is no different from "Apple guru" Steve Jobs launching the iPhone—it's all "just do it." Sum it up in one sentence: the America led by Trump truly embodies a phenomenon of "power overcapacity." Don’t you agree?
Trump's Next Move: Weaponizing Peace
Whether you agree or not, Trump has new initiatives—he sent a letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, stating that given Norway's decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize to recognize his prevention of "eight wars PLUS," therefore, "I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace..., but can now think about what is good and proper' for the US." At this rate, America’s about to claim the whole universe as its own!
Looking back, Trump's bubble is closely tied to those allies who previously pandered to America by slapping the "overcapacity" label on China—they are the kingmakers. They dismantled Huawei's 5G communications, banned lithography machine exports to China, then called Trump "Daddy," thinking the world would become more beautiful. Now they're about to learn it the hard way.
P.S.: Europe will face 100% tariffs from America. Here’s to a roaring Year of the Horse—may you charge ahead and lead the pack!
