Torn Between Two Powers

China's backed Trump into a corner. Over the past few days, he's been throwing around "terminating business with China" threats like confetti. But despite his decoupling bluster, bad news just dropped, and the White House lights are burning bright again tonight as staffers order pizza for another overtime session. What a joy.

Reuters dropped a bombshell: Chinese manufacturers have already lined up alternative buyers beyond the US market. “China's export growth picked up pace in September, buoyed by manufacturers finding buyers in markets beyond the U.S. as a tariff deal with President Donald Trump remained elusive while investors grappled with the latest salvoes in their trade war.”

Chinese exports are absolutely booming—customs data shows over 8% year-on-year growth last month, crushing Reuters' 6% forecast. China's export situation isn't just good. It's excellent.

Meanwhile, Trump's ready with his own playbook. He's raging on social media: “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.”

Then, while hosting Argentine President Milei at the White House, he threw out a warning: "We have to be careful with China." The superpower's run out of cards to play against China, so Trump's hinting that complete decoupling might be on the table. Analysts note this message wasn't just for Milei—it was for every American ally listening.

Trump's pushing for a showdown to apply maximum pressure on China. Since rare earths are threatening America's lifeline, why not just break up completely? The subtext: China has rare earths while America has strength.

Reuters points out that no country matches America's consumer firepower—the US absorbs over $400 billion worth of Chinese goods annually. With China prioritizing economic development, how could it possibly just ditch the American market?

China's Been Planning This All Along

But the hawks and White House team have missed something crucial—China's been preparing for this with long-term strategic resolve. Reuters reports that Chinese policymakers are betting on factory owners expanding sales across Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset trade restrictions and keep this nearly $19 trillion export-driven economy hitting its official 5% annual growth target.

Last year's Nikkei Asia report revealed the shift: China's total trade with the US plummeted from 20% in 2018 to around 11%, with imports dropping to 6.3%—the lowest since China joined the WTO in 2001. The trend's continued this year, with US-bound exports down 30% year-on-year in September and 20% from January through September. At the same time, China's exports to India hit a historic high in August, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records.

Long before Trump's second inauguration, China had already ditched American soybeans for Brazilian ones. Chinese Mainland commentators noted back then that China had achieved trade diversification, arguing that even if Trump launched another trade war, China wouldn't be worried. The logic was simple: China had made full preparations, meaning a trade war wouldn't damage Chinese fundamentals while severely hurting America's vitality. The mutual dependence ratio between the two countries was completely lopsided.）

The reasoning went deeper. Observers pointed out that the US would struggle to achieve de-Sinicization because of China's vast market. The massive population base doesn't just provide cheap labor—it creates an enormous consumer market that's impossible to replace.

The Impossible Choice for US Allies

Then Trump added another line for Milei: "You can do some trade, but you certainly shouldn’t be doing beyond that,“ especially anything to do with the military, or else “I’d be very upset about that”.

In other words, he's forcing Milei to choose—the main theme is "rely on America for security, rely on China for the economy." Simply put, China weighs half a catty, America weighs eight taels—you decide. Reportedly, Milei went silent for a while.

Oh, I get it—I understand what Milei and other American allies are thinking. Ever heard Sam Hui's song "Half a Catty, Eight Taels"? "These days, making a living is tough—where's the ideal balance of half a catty and eight taels?" A backing vocal chimes in—"Hell!"—which perfectly captures the helplessness of being "caught between a rock and a hard place", and squeezed from both sides.

Deep Blue

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

The “decapitation” hype just hit fever pitch. Here’s the bold new chatter: Japan’s defense officials told local media that if the Fujian carrier ever enters the Taiwan Strait, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces should team up with the US military and put sinking it at the top of their to-do list.
  
This is what some war games lay out: If China ever expands its strikes from Kyushu and Okinawa all the way down to the Nansei Islands—plus every US base along the chain—Japan would recoil into defensive mode. And then, Taiwan has no choice but to do the same, as well as the US. Suddenly Tokyo, Taipei, and Washington are all in the same foxhole. The old “defend Taiwan” story morphs into an East Asia mega-battle, where there’s zero daylight between countering threats to Taiwan and threats to Japan.
 
That’s why, as Taiwan commentator Lai Yi-chung pointed out back in July 2023, everyone needs ironclad, three-way security channels—whether defending Taiwan, Japan, or America.
  
Solid logic, the old Russian doll theory: If Taiwan’s in trouble, so is Japan, so is the US. Back under Abe, nerves in Tokyo were already frayed, serving the right wing a golden opportunity. When COVID still stalked the world in 2022, Japan mapped out a plan for 1,000 anti-ship missiles—that’s three for each of China’s 300 warships (now nearly 400, more than even America fields). Their message was clear: Chinese carriers are to be sunk before they ever manage to sail. Taiwan’s mainstream loved it. Double insurance from both the US and Japan, island stability—no need for unification nor independence. Case closed.
  
Then came reality—the Fujian carrier entered service, and shattered this stack of Russian dolls to dust. America sobered up first. The others? Not even worth a footnote.
  
Punchline to the War Game
Last weekend, China Central TV pulled back the curtain: “2 Seconds, 20+ Years—The Untold Grit Behind Fujian’s Launch.” Here’s the money quote from the expert: “Sure, our carrier jets can blast off in two seconds. But getting to that moment took more than 20 years of grit. At the start, plenty doubted. Foreign giants spent decades and still fell short. Could China pull it off? Turns out, yes we can.”
  
The narrative’s heart-tugging, but the real story is buried in the specs. Qiao Jia, who led the Fujian’s construction, spells it out: Unlike Liaoning or Shandong, the Fujian is China’s first homegrown, catapult-equipped aircraft carrier. And it doesn’t just use any catapult system—it’s the world’s first with a conventional-power electromagnetic catapult. Every inch of that tech pushed China’s engineers to the brink, and they didn’t blink.
 
Here’s the cold, hard takeaway: Don’t just stare at the Fujian in awe, or obsess over the road China traveled to get here. The killer fact is, after more than 20 years of grinding, China now owns this tech—and its world-class manufacturing machine means the next Fujian-level carrier could roll out in two years, one year, half a year, or even just two months.
  
No Magic, Just Muscle
Why should anyone take China at its word? Are the claims real—or just bluster? Against nonstop foreign skepticism and a wall of Western tech barricades, CCTV lays it bare: “We started from zero. No playbook. No shortcuts. Real power tech isn’t handed down or bought in a back room. Only by blazing new trails, daring to outdo the world, grinding in silence, and refusing to quit can we keep smashing ceilings—and locking core tech in Chinese hands.” In short, that “Made in China” label? It’s the one thing no rival can beat.
 
Let’s cut the magic act—there’s no David Copperfield here. Think Japan’s top brass wants to wait for a Trump comeback to “sink Fujian”? By all means, keep waiting. If you’ve got the nerve, then step up and show us.