Torn Between Two Powers

China's backed Trump into a corner. Over the past few days, he's been throwing around "terminating business with China" threats like confetti. But despite his decoupling bluster, bad news just dropped, and the White House lights are burning bright again tonight as staffers order pizza for another overtime session. What a joy.

Reuters dropped a bombshell: Chinese manufacturers have already lined up alternative buyers beyond the US market. “China's export growth picked up pace in September, buoyed by manufacturers finding buyers in markets beyond the U.S. as a tariff deal with President Donald Trump remained elusive while investors grappled with the latest salvoes in their trade war.”

Chinese exports are absolutely booming—customs data shows over 8% year-on-year growth last month, crushing Reuters' 6% forecast. China's export situation isn't just good. It's excellent.

Meanwhile, Trump's ready with his own playbook. He's raging on social media: “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.”

Then, while hosting Argentine President Milei at the White House, he threw out a warning: "We have to be careful with China." The superpower's run out of cards to play against China, so Trump's hinting that complete decoupling might be on the table. Analysts note this message wasn't just for Milei—it was for every American ally listening.

Trump's pushing for a showdown to apply maximum pressure on China. Since rare earths are threatening America's lifeline, why not just break up completely? The subtext: China has rare earths while America has strength.

Reuters points out that no country matches America's consumer firepower—the US absorbs over $400 billion worth of Chinese goods annually. With China prioritizing economic development, how could it possibly just ditch the American market?

China's Been Planning This All Along

But the hawks and White House team have missed something crucial—China's been preparing for this with long-term strategic resolve. Reuters reports that Chinese policymakers are betting on factory owners expanding sales across Asia, Africa, and Latin America to offset trade restrictions and keep this nearly $19 trillion export-driven economy hitting its official 5% annual growth target.

Last year's Nikkei Asia report revealed the shift: China's total trade with the US plummeted from 20% in 2018 to around 11%, with imports dropping to 6.3%—the lowest since China joined the WTO in 2001. The trend's continued this year, with US-bound exports down 30% year-on-year in September and 20% from January through September. At the same time, China's exports to India hit a historic high in August, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records.

Long before Trump's second inauguration, China had already ditched American soybeans for Brazilian ones. Chinese Mainland commentators noted back then that China had achieved trade diversification, arguing that even if Trump launched another trade war, China wouldn't be worried. The logic was simple: China had made full preparations, meaning a trade war wouldn't damage Chinese fundamentals while severely hurting America's vitality. The mutual dependence ratio between the two countries was completely lopsided.）

The reasoning went deeper. Observers pointed out that the US would struggle to achieve de-Sinicization because of China's vast market. The massive population base doesn't just provide cheap labor—it creates an enormous consumer market that's impossible to replace.

The Impossible Choice for US Allies

Then Trump added another line for Milei: "You can do some trade, but you certainly shouldn’t be doing beyond that,“ especially anything to do with the military, or else “I’d be very upset about that”.

In other words, he's forcing Milei to choose—the main theme is "rely on America for security, rely on China for the economy." Simply put, China weighs half a catty, America weighs eight taels—you decide. Reportedly, Milei went silent for a while.

Oh, I get it—I understand what Milei and other American allies are thinking. Ever heard Sam Hui's song "Half a Catty, Eight Taels"? "These days, making a living is tough—where's the ideal balance of half a catty and eight taels?" A backing vocal chimes in—"Hell!"—which perfectly captures the helplessness of being "caught between a rock and a hard place", and squeezed from both sides.

Deep Blue

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In the latest international upheaval, Europe is taking the hardest hit. After 300 years of modern civilization and the churn of imperial powers, that era is gone, and a better tomorrow is nowhere in sight.

Europe has one problem: it cannot take care of itself. “No one really knows whether Europe would still be able to produce toothpaste if it weren’t for China,” the EU Chamber of Commerce said.
 
Europe doesn’t make toothpaste; it sells luxury brands. Fine — look at the latest news. Reuters reports that the U.S.-Israel-Iran war has delivered a blow to European luxury labels. Sales at Dubai’s upscale malls, packed with wealthy shoppers, have fallen 50 percent, and LVMH, France’s largest luxury group, says wealthy Middle Eastern customers have paused spending in Europe because of the conflict in the Gulf region.
 
The New York Times, in a piece headlined “Europe Is Done With Appeasing Trump”, lays out several of Europe’s current pains.
 
“The barrage of tariffs that opened the second Trump administration, aimed indiscriminately at friend and foe; the brazen demands that Denmark cede Greenland to the United States, and now the absence of any consultation with European allies before joining Israel in an attack on Iran that has affected the entire world, have erased any illusion among most Europeans that Mr. Trump is anything but an unpredictable, vindictive and uncontrollable danger,” it wrote.
 
Trump’s latest move is to impose a blockade on all Iranian ports from Monday, adding another barrier in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. president has repeatedly said, with obvious satisfaction, that America has oil and natural gas, and that oil shipping blockage cannot bring the United States to its knees. In other words, if Iran wants a war of attrition, the White House is ready to go all the way. America’s NATO allies, meanwhile, make clear they will “decline to join in.” Europe’s oil supply is already under pressure: Russian oil and gas are cut off, and Middle Eastern shipping now faces a second lock. So is Trump punishing Iran, or Europe?
 
“Last year, export controls imposed by Beijing on seven rare earth elements and the magnets made from them had especially severe consequences. China is a global leader in the production of these critical raw materials, which are widely used in electric motors, smartphones, and numerous everyday electronic devices,” Deutsche Welle reported. “The EU Chamber of Commerce said nearly one-third of its member companies indicated in a questionnaire survey at the beginning of this year that their business had been affected by China’s export control measures.”

The EU Chamber of Commerce knows perfectly well that China-EU relations have been pulled off course by the United States, and that Europe has not shaped its foreign and trade policy around its own interests. It has even had to tear out 5G networks built by Huawei and ZTE, while Chinese electric vehicles face restrictions. That has only made China-EU ties more tangled. Europe can hardly be called arrogant now. Energy supplies are unstable, and rare earth constraints have turned it into an industrial power with nothing usable to work with. So what now?
 
Although calls to “de-risk” economic ties with China have persisted for years, many European companies continue to bet on the Chinese market. Over the past year, EU figures show that 26% of companies said they were relocating their supply chains to China, “a proportion twice that of companies choosing to move their supply chains out of China or establish a second hub overseas.” The trend is clearly still going strong.
 
Europe’s major powers, including France, Italy and Germany, all feel the need to break free from the manipulation and humiliation imposed by the United States, especially the Trump team. Europe has finally woken up and is now pushing for independence and autonomy, placing its national destiny firmly in its own hands.
 
Nothing in the world is difficult if you are willing to scale the heights. Europe becoming strong again is no dream, but starting over takes patience. I would say 300 years is enough for you to turn things around.