With Thanksgiving less than three weeks away, the question of how much this year’s turkey and trimmings will cost looms large, especially with grocery prices 2.7% higher than they were in 2024.
President Donald Trump has claimed over the past two days that costs for the Thanksgiving meal are down 25% this year, citing a prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket from Walmart.
“I just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night, they've done it for many years, that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than Thanksgiving last year,” he said during a news conference on Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
But Trump’s numbers are off. Here's a closer look at the facts.
CLAIM: Walmart prices show that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is 25% lower in 2025 than in 2024.
THE FACTS: This is misleading. While Walmart's 2025 meal basket costs about 25% less than the one from 2024, that's because it offers fewer items and different products that make it more affordable.
“It's not apples to apples, right?” said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M University. “What this does highlight is individual retailers’ strategies for getting customers in the door.”
The 2025 basket costs less than $40 and feeds 10 people, about $4 a head, according to Walmart. In 2024, a basket for eight cost approximately $56, less than $7 per person. That's about a 25% decrease, possibly more depending on price fluctuations. John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., touted the savings in a LinkedIn post last month.
But the baskets differ significantly. For example, this year's includes just 15 items compared to last year's 29. It is missing many dessert items, including a pecan pie, mini marshmallows and muffin mix, as well as savory items such as sweet potatoes, yellow onions and celery stalks.
The superstore retailer has also substituted some products. Instead of 12 sweet Hawaiian rolls, the 2025 deal includes 12 dinner rolls. Both are from Walmart's store brand. It also offers Kinder's crispy fried onions as opposed to French's.
Plus, the amount of each item varies. Customers were promised a 10-16 pound turkey in 2024, but a 13.5 pound one this year. And they'll get one can of cream of mushroom soup instead of two.
“They're marketing it that ‘hey, this is a more affordable way,’ yet that implies that 'man, stuff's a lot more expensive,'” Anderson said. “I guess it's good marketing.”
A Thursday press release from the White House also cited cheaper Thanksgiving deals at Lidl's, Aldi's, Target and Schnucks.
Target's four-person meal costs less than $20, about the same as in 2024, but substitutes green beans and cream of mushroom soup for French bread and frozen corn — also not an apples-to-apples comparison.
Schnucks provided The Associated Press with a press release saying the retailer is offering consumers its lowest price on a frozen store-brand turkey in over 15 years. It declined further comment. Lidl US said it is offering its Thanksgiving meal at the lowest ever price and Aldi said its price was lower than 2024. Target and Walmart did not comment.
According to a recent report from Wells Fargo, the cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has fallen 2% to 3% since 2024, depending in part on whether customers go for national name brands or cheaper store labels. The White House press release also cited this report.
Some economists have concerns about the price of turkey. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture reported at the end of October that wholesale prices are up 75% since October 2024, while retail prices are 25% higher than a year ago.
An earlier analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation found that wholesale turkey prices were up about 40%.
And yet, that doesn’t mean every bird will be pricier in 2025. Anderson explained that because certain retailers, such as Walmart, contract their turkeys well in advance, the price for customers might be much lower than the market currently indicates.
“That gives them the flexibility to run those types of specials,” he said.
Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.
A grocery store meat handler stocks poultry, which is covered by the USDA Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), at a grocery store in Baltimore, Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)
A fire at a bar in the Swiss ski resort of Crans-Montana in the early hours of New Year's Day has left dozens of people presumed dead and around 100 injured, according to authorities. Here is a look at some other nightclub, bar and music venue fires that have led to significant death tolls:
— March 2025: A fire and ensuing stampede at the crowded Pulse club in Kocani, North Macedonia, killed 63 people, most of them young revelers, and injured more than 200. It was set off by a pyrotechnic flame that engulfed the roof of the club.
— April 2024: A blaze at the Masquerade nightclub in Istanbul, Turkey, trapped workers and employees while the venue was closed for renovations, leaving 29 people dead. It was located on the ground and basement floors of a 16-story residential building.
— October 2023: A fire that started at a nightclub in the southeastern Spanish city of Murcia and spread to two other clubs left 13 people dead.
— January 2022: A nightclub in Sorong, in Indonesia’s West Papua province, burned after two groups attacked each other inside the building. Nineteen people were killed.
— January 2022: A blaze at Liv’s Nightclub Yaouba in Yaounde, the capital of Cameroon, set off explosions that killed 17 people. The government suggested that fireworks set the roof alight and the fire then spread to areas where cooking gas was stored.
— December 2016: Thirty-six people died in a fire at a warehouse in Oakland, California that had been converted into a residence and event space for artists dubbed the “Ghost Ship.” The blaze, which broke out during an electronic music and dance party, moved so quickly that victims were trapped on the illegally constructed second floor.
— October 2015: A blaze that broke out during a rock band’s pyrotechnics display at the Colectiv nightclub in the Romanian capital, Bucharest, killed 64 people and left some 190 injured.
— January 2013: A fire killed more than 200 people at the Kiss nightclub in the city of Santa Maria in southern Brazil. Investigators said soundproofing foam on the ceiling caught fire and released poisonous gases that quickly killed those attending a university party.
— December 2009: Some 152 people died when a blaze broke out at the Lame Horse nightclub in Perm, Russia. It started when an indoor fireworks display ignited a plastic ceiling decorated with branches.
— January 2009: An indoor fireworks display after a New Year’s countdown ignited a blaze in the Santika club in Bangkok, Thailand, killing 67 people and injuring many more. Victims died from burns, smoke inhalation, and from being crushed.
— September 2008: A fire killed 44 people at the jammed King of Dancers nightclub in Shenzhen, China, when a stampede broke out after a fireworks show ignited the ceiling.
— December 2004: In Buenos Aires, Argentina, a fire killed 194 people at the crowded Cromagnon Republic club after a flare ignited ceiling foam. Club owner Omar Chaban was sentenced to 20 years in prison for causing the deadly fire and for bribery. Others received lighter sentences.
— February 2003: A fire at the Station nightclub in West Warwick, Rhode Island, in the United States, killed 100 people and injured more than 200 others. Fireworks being used by the band set fire to flammable foam inside the club.
— January 2001: A fire at a cafe in the Dutch town of Volendam where people were celebrating the New Year killed 14 people and injured more than 200.
— December 2000: A fire that was blamed on a welding accident killed 309 people at a disco in the central Chinese city of Luoyang.
— October 1998: An arson attack against an overcrowded youth disco in the Swedish city of Goteborg killed 63 people and left around 200 injured. Four people were later convicted for starting the fire.
— March 1996: A fire at the Ozone Disco Pub in Quezon City, Philippines, killed 162 people. A large proportion of the victims were students partying to mark the end of the academic year.
— March 1990: An arson attack at the Happy Land nightclub in the Bronx borough of New York City killed 87 people. It started when a man angry with his girlfriend threw gasoline on the club’s only exit and set it on fire, then jammed down the metal front gate so people were trapped.
— December 1983: A fire at the Alcala dance hall in Madrid, Spain, left 78 people dead and more than 20 injured.
— May 1977: A fire at the Beverly Hills Supper Club in Southgate, Kentucky, killed 165 people and injured more than 200.
— November 1942: The deadliest nightclub fire in U.S. history killed 492 people at Boston’s Cocoanut Grove club. The fire at what had been one of Boston’s foremost nightspots led to new requirements for sprinkler systems and accessible exits.
— April 1940: A fire ignited the decorative Spanish moss draping the ceiling of the Rhythm Night Club in Natchez, Mississippi, killing 209 people. The windows had been boarded up to prevent people from sneaking in.
Police officers inspect the area where a fire broke out at the Le Constellation bar and lounge leaving people dead and injured, during New Year’s celebration, in Crans-Montana, Swiss Alps, Switzerland, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. (Alessandro della Valle/Keystone via AP)
Police officers inspect the area where a fire broke out at the Le Constellation bar and lounge leaving people dead and injured, during New Year’s celebration, in Crans-Montana, Swiss Alps, Switzerland, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. (Alessandro della Valle/Keystone via AP)
