WASHINGTON (AP) — During the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, investors, businesses, policymakers and the Federal Reserve were groping in the dark for clues about the health of the American job market. The federal workers who collect data on hiring and unemployment had been furloughed and couldn’t do their jobs.
Now that the shutdown is over, the Labor Department will finally let a little light in Thursday, releasing jobs numbers for September — nearly seven weeks after they were due.
Economists expect to see a continuation of what was happening in the spring and summer: weak hiring but few layoffs, an awkward pairing that means Americans who have work mostly enjoy job security – but those who don’t often struggle to find employment.
Economists predict that U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in September, unimpressive but an improvement on the paltry 22,000 they added in August. And the forecasters expect that the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%, according to a survey by FactSet.
Normally the stock and bond markets would shrug off such old data, said market strategist Matthew Ryan at the financial services firm Ebury. But investors are so desperate for fresh economic news that “we expect volatility around the report to be extremely high.’’
The job market has been strained this year by the lingering effects of high interest rates engineered to fight a 2021-2022 spike in inflation and uncertainty around Trump’s campaign to slap taxes on imports from almost every country on earth and on specific products — from copper to foreign films.
Labor Department revisions in September showed that the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the year that ended in March. That meant that employers added an average of just 71,000 new jobs a month over that period, not the 147,000 first reported.
Since March, job creation has slowed even more — to an average 53,000 a month. During the 2021-2023 hiring boom that followed COVID-19 lockdowns, by contrast, the economy was creating 400,000 jobs a month.
Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at the bank Santander, is a bit more optimistic about September hiring than most of his peers. He forecasts that employers added 75,000 jobs.
President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is expected to reduce the number of people looking for work, which means that the economy can create fewer jobs without sending the unemployment rate higher.
In the past, Stanley wrote in a commentary Wednesday, the “breakeven’’ point for monthly job creation was seen as somewhere between 125,000 and 150,000; but as fewer immigrants week work, he says, the job market can remain stable even if employers add just 50,000 jobs a month, maybe fewer.
Once the September numbers are out, businesses, investors, policymakers and the Fed will have to wait awhile to get another good look at the American labor market.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that it won’t won't release a full jobs report for October because it couldn't calculate the unemployment rate during the government shutdown.
Instead, it will release some of the October jobs data — including the number of jobs that employers created last month — along with the full November jobs report on Dec. 16, a couple of weeks late.
That means the September jobs numbers will likely get extra attention. They are the last full measurement of hiring and unemployment that Fed policymakers will see before they meet Dec. 9-10 to decide whether to cut their benchmark interest rate for the third time this year.
AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.
FILE - In this May 7, 2020, file photo, the entrance to the Labor Department is seen near the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
ST. LOUIS (AP) — Francisco Lindor made a couple of uncharacteristic mental mistakes Wednesday, and the second one certainly cost the New York Mets.
The star shortstop lost track of the outs on defense in the opening inning and got picked off first base in the sixth — right before teammate Juan Soto homered. The slumping Mets stranded 11 runners and lost 2-1 to the St. Louis Cardinals in 11 innings.
Lindor reached base in the sixth on a one-out error by third baseman Nolan Gorman, but the leadoff hitter wandered too far off the bag and was fiddling with his gloves when he was easily picked off by St. Louis starter Matthew Liberatore.
“I should have been better,” Lindor said.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza credited the Cardinals with making a good move to nab Lindor.
“They got us there,” Mendoza said. “He was going to go. They got us with a quick step-off there. I wouldn’t consider that one there a mental mistake. He was trying to get some momentum there and being aggressive.”
Three pitches later, Soto hit a soaring fly that landed just over the right-field fence inside the foul pole for a solo home run.
In the first inning, Lindor failed to execute a potential double play when he forgot how many outs there were.
With one out and Iván Herrera on first, left-handed-hitting Alec Burleson hit a grounder to Lindor at shortstop. Positioned near second base, Lindor touched the bag but then headed toward the dugout instead of throwing to first to retire Burleson as well.
By the time Lindor realized his mistake, it was too late. New York starter Freddy Peralta struck out the next batter to end the inning.
“I forgot the outs,” Lindor said. “I made a mistake that probably cost Peralta an extra inning because he had to throw more pitches after that. It’s inexcusable. He probably could have gone six, seven innings. I just forgot the outs. I realized there was just one out. Honest mistake.”
Mendoza didn’t cover for Lindor.
“There’s no excuses,” Mendoza said. “He’ll be the first one that tells you that. That can’t happen. He knows. He was pretty (ticked) when he came in. Peralta did a good job picking him up and finishing that inning.”
New York (3-3) went 1 for 29 with runners in scoring position during the three-game series, including 0 for 11 in the finale.
“Hats off to them,” Lindor said. “They executed their pitches. They played better. I've got to be better, and go out there and win the next series.”
The Mets have totaled 12 runs in their last five games after scoring 11 on opening day against Pittsburgh.
“Good hitters right now for a couple of games, they’re not getting it done,” Mendoza said.
Lindor remains optimistic the Mets will put everything together.
“I still believe in what we have,” he said. “We have a good team. We are a couple of pitches away from continuing to get the ball rolling on our side.”
AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb
New York Mets' pitcher Freddy Peralta throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/LG Patterson)
New York Mets' Juan Soto hits a home run in the sixth inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/LG Patterson)
St. Louis Cardinal teammates surround Masyn Winn after he hit the game winning hit during the eleventh inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/LG Patterson)
New York Mets' right fielder Carson Benge misses a fly ball during the eleventh inning of a baseball game which allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to win the game Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/LG Patterson)
New York Mets' right fielder Carson Benge dives but can't make the catch on a fly ball which allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to score the winning run in the 11th inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/LG Patterson)
