Stores keep prices down in a tough year for turkeys. Other Thanksgiving foods may cost more

CHELSEA, Mich. (AP) — Old Brick Farm, where Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys and ducks, was fortunate this Thanksgiving season.

Doll's small farm west of Detroit had no cases of bird flu, despite an ongoing outbreak that killed more than 2 million U.S. turkeys in the last three months alone. He also avoided another disease, avian metapneumovirus, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs.

“I try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing other animals in from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well,” said Doll, whose farm has been in his family for five generations.

But Doll still saw the impact as those diseases shrank the U.S. turkey flock to a 40-year low this year. The hatchery where he gets his turkey chicks had fewer available this year. He plans to order another 100 hatchlings soon, even though they won’t arrive until July.

“If you don’t get your order in early, you’re not going to get it,” he said.

The shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Despite the increase, many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to prepare the rest of the holiday feast may not be. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased prices for canned goods.

As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples — including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce – cost $58.81, or 4.1% more than last year, according to Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores. That’s higher than the average price increase for food eaten at home, which rose 2.7% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Datasembly showed a 2% decline in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of Nov. 17. Pricing out Thanksgiving meals isn’t an exact science, and the firm's tally differed from other estimates.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey prices, reported that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 would cost $55.16 this year, or 5% less than last year. The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that feeding 10 people on Thursday using store-brand products would cost $80 this year, which is 2% to 3% lower than last year's estimate.

Grocery chains are also offering deals to attract shoppers. Discount grocer Aldi is advertising a $40 meal for 10 with 21 items. Kroger said shoppers could feed 10 people for under $50 with its menu of store-brand products.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump touted Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket, which he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that was because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.

“We're seeing some promotions being implemented in an effort to draw customers into the store,” David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said.

That's despite a sharp increase in wholesale turkey prices since August. In the second week of November, frozen 8-16 pound hens were averaging $1.77 per pound, up 81% from the same period last year, according to Mark Jordan, the executive director of Leap Market Analytics, which closely follows the poultry and livestock markets.

Avian viruses are the main culprit. But another reason for turkey’s higher wholesale prices has been an increase in consumer demand as other meats have gotten more expensive, Jordan said. Beef prices were up 14% in September compared to last year, for example.

“For a big chunk of the population, they look at steak cuts and say, ‘I can’t or I don’t want to pay $30 a pound,’” Jordan said.

That’s the case for Paul Nadeau, a retired consultant from Austin, Texas, who plans to smoke a turkey this week. Nadeau said he usually smokes a brisket over Thanksgiving weekend, but the beef brisket he buys would now cost more than $100. Turkey prices are also up at his local H-E-B supermarket, he said, but not by as much.

“I don’t know of anything that’s down in price since last year except for eggs,” Nadeau said.

Trump’s tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are also raising prices. Farok Contractor, a distinguished professor of management and global business at the Rutgers Business School, said customers are paying 10 cents to 40 cents more per can when companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.

Tariffs may be partly to blame for the increased cost of jellied cranberry sauce, which was up 38% from last year in Datasembly’s survey. But weather was also a factor. U.S. cranberry production is expected to be down 9% this year, hurt by drought conditions in Massachusetts, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In Illinois, where most of the country’s canning pumpkins are grown, dry weather actually helped pumpkins avoid diseases that are more prevalent in wet conditions, said Raghela Scavuzzo, an associate director of food systems development at the Illinois Farm Bureau and the executive director of the Illinois Specialty Growers Association. Datasembly found that a 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix cost 5% less than last year.

Back at Old Brick Farm, which has been in his family since 1864, Doll walked among his turkeys the week before Thanksgiving, patting their heads as they waddled between their warm barn and an open pasture. In a few days, he planned to deliver them to an Amish butcher.

Doll sold all 92 turkeys he raised this year, with customers paying $6.50 per pound for what many tell him is the best turkey they've ever tasted. He enjoys a little profit, he said, and the good feeling of supplying a holiday meal.

“I just love it, to think that, you know, not only are we providing them food, but the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner,” he said.

Associated Press Video Journalist Mike Householder contributed.

Turkeys are seen on a farm Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Sylvan Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder)

Potatoes are on display at a Meijer store Friday, Nov. 21, 2025, in Canton Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder)

Cans of pumpkin are on display at a Meijer store Friday, Nov. 21, 2025, in Canton Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder) _

Frozen turkeys are on display at a Meijer store Friday, Nov. 21, 2025, in Canton Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder)

A turkey is seen on a farm Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Sylvan Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder)

Larry Doll interacts with turkeys on his farm Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Sylvan Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder) _

Turkeys are seen on a farm Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025, in Sylvan Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Mike Householder)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran kept up its attacks on Persian Gulf neighbors on Wednesday as airstrikes pounded Tehran, while U.S. President Donald Trump again made contradictory statements about whether he was ready to wind down the war or escalate it.

Trump struck a hard line Wednesday in a Truth Social post, demanding that Iran stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway vital to global oil supplies — or the U.S. would bomb the Islamic Republic “back to the Stone Ages.” A day earlier, Trump said the U.S. “will not have anything to do with” ensuring the security of ships passing through Hormuz; that was an apparent backtrack from an earlier threat to attack Iran's power grid and other infrastructure if it didn't open the strait by April 6.

Trump, who is scheduled to give a televised address Wednesday evening, said Tuesday he could walk away from the war in two to three weeks once he felt confident Iran would not be able to build a nuclear weapon — even if Tehran does not agree to a ceasefire.

But his latest Truth Social post struck a more belligerent tone as more American troops move into the region for a possible ground offensive after weeks of airstrikes targeting Iran.

Trump also claimed Wednesday that “Iran's New Regime President” wanted a ceasefire. It wasn't clear to whom the U.S. president was referring since Iran still has the same president. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, called Trump's claim “false and baseless,” according to a report on Iranian state television.

Speaking earlier to Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled Tehran’s willingness to keep fighting. “You cannot speak to the people of Iran in the language of threats and deadlines,” he said. “We do not set any deadline for defending ourselves.”

Since the war began on Feb. 28, Trump has offered shifting objectives and repeatedly has said it could be over soon while also threatening to widen the conflict. Thousands of additional U.S. troops are currently heading to the Middle East, and speculation abounds about the purpose of their deployment.

Just days ago, Trump threatened to attack Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. And there has also been speculation about whether the U.S. could decide to send in military forces to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile — a complex and risky operation, fraught with radiation and chemical dangers, according to experts and former government officials.

Adding to the confusion is what role Israel - which has been bombing Iran alongside the U.S. — might play in any of these scenarios.

Trump has been under growing pressure to end the war as oil prices have skyrocketed, pushing up the cost of gasoline, food and other goods. The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard, was up more than 40% since the start of the war, trading at more than $103 a barrel on Wednesday.

A fifth of the world’s traded oil passes through the strait in peacetime, and even if it were to reopen quickly, some effects like higher food prices could persist for months or longer.

The U.S. has presented Iran with a 15-point plan aimed at bringing about a ceasefire, including a demand for the strait to be reopened and for its nuclear program to be rolled back.

Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful. Its own five-point response includes retaining sovereignty over the strait.

In the interview with Al Jazeera, Araghchi acknowledged receiving direct messages from U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff. He insisted, however, that there were no direct negotiations and said Iran has no faith that talks with the U.S. could yield any results, saying “the trust level is at zero.”

He warned against any U.S. attempt to launch a ground offensive, saying “we are waiting for them.”

A cruise missile slammed into an oil tanker off Qatar’s coast Wednesday, the Defense Ministry said. The 21-member crew of the tanker, contracted by state-owned QatarEnergy, was evacuated and no casualties were reported.

A fully-loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker came under attack off Dubai the day before, one of more than 20 ships attacked by Iran during the war.

In the United Arab Emirates, a person was killed when he was hit by debris from an intercepted drone in Fujairah, one of the country’s seven emirates.

Bahrain sounded two alerts for incoming missiles, while Kuwait’s state-run KUNA news agency said a drone hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, sparking a large fire.

Jordan’s military said it intercepted a ballistic missile and two drones fired from Iran in the last 24 hours. No casualties were reported. Two drones were also intercepted in Saudi Arabia, and air raid sirens sounded in Israel though there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.

An airstrike on Tehran, meanwhile, appeared to have hit the former U.S. Embassy compound, which has been controlled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard since American diplomats were held hostage there in 1979.

Witnesses said buildings outside the massive compound had their windows blown out and that it appears the strike happened inside the walled facility.

Israel also said it hit a plant in Iran producing fentanyl, a synthetic opioid. Israel and the United States have alleged in recent years that Iran was experimenting with using fentanyl in chemical weapons.

Iran acknowledged a strike Tuesday on Tofigh Daru factory, but insisted it only supplied “hospital drugs.” Hospitals use fentanyl to treat severe pain but it can also be fatal.

In Lebanon, at least five people were killed in an Israeli strike on a Beirut neighborhood.

Israel invaded southern Lebanon after the Iran-linked Hezbollah militant group began launching missiles into northern Israel days after the outbreak of the war. Many Lebanese fear another prolonged military occupation.

More than 1,200 people have been killed in Lebanon and more than 1 million displaced, according to authorities. Ten Israeli soldiers have also died there.

In Iran, authorities say more than 1,900 people have been killed, while 19 have been reported dead in Israel. More than two dozen people have died in Gulf states and the occupied West Bank, while 13 U.S. service members have been killed.

Rising reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writers Giovanna Dell’Orto in Miami and Samy Magdy in Cairo contributed to this report.

A young girl is comforted by her father and Israeli soldiers as they take cover in a bomb shelter during air raid sirens warning of incoming Iranian missile strikes in Bnei Brak, Israel, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

People inspect the site of an Israeli strike amid debris and damaged vehicles in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

A man feeds stray cats in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

The Indian flagged LPG carrier Jag Vasant transporting liquefied petroleum gas, is seen at the Mumbai Port in Mumbai, India, after it arrived clearing the Strait of Hormuz, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Firefighters and rescue workers work at the site of Israeli airstrikes, in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

A firefighter extinguishes a car at the site of Israeli airstrikes, in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Israel's rescue teams and residents take shelter as sirens sounds next to a site struck by an Iranian missile in Bnei Brak, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

A police vehicle is seen through a shattered windshield at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Two men ride scooters past charred debris at the site of an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)