Deadly Asian floods are no fluke. They’re a climate warning, scientists say

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Southeast Asia is being pummeled by unusually severe floods this year, as late-arriving storms and relentless rains wreak havoc that has caught many places off guard.

Deaths have topped 1,400 across Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, with more than 1,000 still missing in floods and landslides. In Indonesia, entire villages remain cut off after bridges and roads were swept away. Thousands in Sri Lanka lack clean water, while Thailand’s prime minister acknowledged shortcomings in his government's response.

Malaysia is still reeling from one its worst floods, which killed three and displaced thousands. Meanwhile, Vietnam and the Philippines have faced a year of punishing storms and floods that have left hundreds dead.

What feels unprecedented is exactly what climate scientists expect: A new normal of punishing storms, floods and devastation.

“Southeast Asia should brace for a likely continuation and potential worsening of extreme weather in 2026 and for many years immediately following that," said Jemilah Mahmood, who leads the think tank Sunway Centre for Planetary Health in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Climate patterns last year helped set the stage for 2025's extreme weather.

Atmospheric levels of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by the most on record in 2024. That “turbocharged” the climate, the United Nation's World Meteorological Organization says, resulting in more extreme weather.

Asia is bearing the brunt of such changes, warming nearly twice as fast as the global average. Scientists agree that the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are increasing.

Warmer ocean temperatures provide more energy for storms, making them stronger and wetter, while rising sea levels amplify storm surges, said Benjamin Horton, a professor of earth science at the City University of Hong Kong.

Storms are arriving later in the year, one after another as climate change affects air and ocean currents, including systems like El Nino, which keeps ocean waters warmer for longer and extends the typhoon season. With more moisture in the air and changes in wind patterns, storms can form quickly.

“While the total number of storms may not dramatically increase, their severity and unpredictability will," Horton said.

The unpredictability, intensity, and frequency of recent extreme weather events are overwhelming Southeast Asian governments, said Aslam Perwaiz of the Bangkok-based intergovernmental Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. He attributes that to a tendency to focus on responding to disasters rather than preparing for them.

“Future disasters will give us even less lead time to prepare," Perwaiz warned.

In Sri Lanka’s hardest-hit provinces, little has changed since 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, said Sarala Emmanuel, a human-rights researcher in Batticaloa. It killed 230,000 people.

"When a disaster like this happens, the poor and marginalized communities are the worst affected,” Emmanuel said. That includes poor tea plantation workers living in areas prone to landslides.

Unregulated development that damages local ecosystems has worsened flood damage, said Sandun Thudugala of the Colombo-based non-profit Law and Society Trust. Sri Lanka needs to rethink how it builds and plans, he said, taking into account a future where extreme weather is the norm.

Videos of logs swept downstream in Indonesia suggested deforestation may have made the floods worse. Since 2000, the flood-inundated Indonesian provinces of Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra have lost 19,600 square kilometers (7,569 square miles) of forest, an area larger than the state of New Jersey, according to Global Forest Watch.

Officials rejected claims of illegal logging, saying the timber looked old and probably came from landholders.

Countries are losing billions of dollars a year because of climate change.

Vietnam estimates that it lost over $3 billion in the first 11 months of this year because of floods, landslides and storms.

Thailand's government data is fragmented, but its agriculture ministry estimates about $47 million in agricultural losses since August. The Kasikorn Research Center estimates the November floods in southern Thailand alone caused about $781 million in losses, potentially shaving off 0.1% of GDP.

Indonesia doesn't have data for losses for this year but its annual average losses from natural disasters are $1.37 billion, its finance ministry says.

Costs from disasters are an added burden for Sri Lanka, which contributes a tiny fraction of global carbon emissions but is at the frontline of climate impacts, while it spends most of its wealth to repay foreign loans, said Thudugala.

"There is also an urgent need for vulnerable countries like ours to get compensated for loss and damages we suffer because of global warming,” Thudugala said.

“My request ... is support to recover some of the losses we have suffered,” said Rohan Wickramarachchi, owner of a commercial building in the central Sri Lankan town of Peradeniya that was flooded to its second floor. He and dozens of other families he knows must now start over.

Responding to increasingly desperate calls for help, at the COP30 global climate conference last month in Brazil, countries pledged to triple funding for climate adaptation and make $1.3 trillion in annual climate financing available by 2035. That’s still woefully short of what developing nations requested, and it's unclear if those funds will actually materialize.

Southeast Asia is at a crossroads for climate action, said Thomas Houlie of the science and policy institute, Climate Analytics. The region is expanding use of renewable energy but still reliant on fossil fuels.

“What we’re seeing in the region is dramatic and it’s unfortunately a stark reminder of the consequences of the climate crisis," Houlie said.

Delgado reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writers Edna Tarigan in Jakarta, Indonesia, Jintamas Saksornchai in Bangkok, Thailand, Sibi Arasu in Bengaluru, India, Eranga Jayawardena in Kandy, Sri Lanka, and Eileen Ng in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, contributed to this report.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

FILE - People wade through floodwaters in Songkhla province, southern Thailand, on Nov. 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Sarot Meksophawannakul, File)

FILE - People watch rough waves caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi in Khanh Hoa, Vietnam, on Nov. 6, 2025. (AP Photo/Hau Dinh, File)

FILE - Men swim despite strong waves due to Typhoon Fung-wong along a coastal village on Nov. 10, 2025, in Navotas, Philippines. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)

FILE - Cars and houses are submerged in floodwaters in Songkhla province, southern Thailand, on Nov. 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Arnun Chonmahatrakool, File)

FILE - This aerial photo taken using drone shows a village affected by a flash flood in Batang Toru, North Sumatra, Indonesia, on Dec. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Binsar Bakkara, File)

A man cleans his house at a village affected by flood in Batang Toru, North Sumatra, Indonesia, Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Binsar Bakkara)

Peoples move a car damaged from floods in Songkhla province, southern Thailand, Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Sarot Meksophawannakul)

A man cleans the mud and slush from his shop after floods in Gelioya, Sri Lanka Sri Lanka, Monday, Dec. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)

This drone shot shows the devastation at a village affected by a flash flood in Batang Toru, North Sumatra, Indonesia, Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Binsar Bakkara)

Men sit near a bridge collapsed during a flash flood in Pidie Jaya, Aceh province, Indonesia, Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Reza Saifullah)

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Pope Leo XIV is delving into the hotly contested issue of migration by visiting two flashpoints — Spain’s Canary Islands in the Atlantic next week, and Italy’s Lampedusa island in the Mediterranean in early July.

These rocky, remote outposts of Europe have struggled with the arrival of tens of thousands of mostly African migrants through some of the world's deadliest migration routes. Even as numbers decreased this year, especially in the Canaries, the issue continues to roil politics in these historically Catholic countries.

Many Catholics and migrants hope the upcoming papal trips will refocus attention on solidarity and support — and away from divisive political debate that is splitting the right in addition to pitting it against the left.

“Stuck in the middle are the migrants,” said the Most Rev. José Mazuelos, the bishop of Canarias, whose diocese includes several of the islands. “So the church says, ‘Let’s give them a face, because we’re talking about people, not numbers.’"

Among them is Eslim Jallow, 27. Dreaming of a more prosperous future, Jallow and his younger brother left Gambia and landed in the Canary Islands in 2023. At first, Jallow struggled to adapt, but he quickly learned Spanish, took courses and now earns a living as a programmer and web developer in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

“Perhaps the pope will change the way in which people here look at immigrants,” Jallow said. “Immigrants should be treated with dignity and respect, not ignored.”

Like most migrants arriving in the islands, he isn’t Catholic. But he feels that Leo “speaks for us, he reminds the world we are also human beings.”

Advocating for migrants globally was a priority for Pope Francis. He went to Lampedusa in 2013 on his first pastoral visit outside Rome and, three years later on the Greek island of Lesbos, he brought back with him a dozen Syrian Muslim refugees.

Under Leo, the Catholic Church has continued to call for their humane treatment around the world, including decrying mass deportations in his home country, the United States.

“Pope Leo is signaling how important immigration is to him by doing these two trips early in his papacy,” said Michele Pistone, a Villanova University professor who leads its new center on immigration.

In the Canaries, Leo is expected at the port of Arguineguín, on the island of Gran Canaria, on June 11 to pay homage to thousands of migrants who died or disappeared en route. The next day, he will meet migrants at a camp on the island of Tenerife.

The archipelago has been the epicenter of a humanitarian crisis that in 2024 saw the arrival of nearly 47,000 migrants from North and West Africa, including several thousand unaccompanied minors.

Like Jallow, half of them landed in El Hierro island — nearly triple its population, said the Most Rev. Eloy Santiago, bishop of Tenerife, whose diocese includes that smaller island. Its resources were strained to a breaking point, even though most migrants only stayed a few days.

“If a boat arrives, the couple of local doctors have to go out running to take care of them, and then the local residents who had their medical appointments can’t have them,” Santiago said.

Catholic organizations are among those that aid migrants from the moment they step out of rickety, overcrowded boats.

Arrivals have slowed dramatically this year, in part due to stricter controls along the African coast. But the most challenging task remains — how to help those who arrived as minors, were entrusted to state care, and are thrown out into the streets when they turn 18, often with no job prospects and no support.

Caya Suárez, secretary-general for the Catholic charity Caritas in the Canaries, has seen firsthand how migrants coming of age on the islands are the most vulnerable.

“That’s a very bad moment, even though they’d been waiting for it with hope, because they see they are still stuck without alternatives,” she said.

Caritas tries to help the young adults find housing and jobs, she added. It’s also relocated a few young migrants to Madrid, a small village in the largely rural region of Galicia, and elsewhere on the mainland, with the help of parishes there even as the governments of other Spanish regions have been reluctant to take on underage migrants.

Many residents in the Canaries feel like they’ve been abandoned to cope with an unsolvable problem — how to stretch even farther resources for migrants who thought they’d be within reach of economic prosperity and free to travel across the European Union, and instead end up on the street, struggling to send remittances home but also to leave.

Compounded with the perception that national and European political institutions tend to see it as an exclusively “island problem,” the situation is generating a growing malaise even among generous islanders who have long been accustomed to migration to and from Latin America, the Canaries’ bishops said.

“The pope’s word can help so that in the middle of this fatigue, people can buck up again because they see they are supported,” said Santiago, who was born and ordained a priest on the islands.

At the national level, Spain’s Catholic Church also backed a new measure giving temporary residency permits to potentially more than half a million foreigners in the country illegally, many from Latin America.

They often work in hospitality, agriculture and eldercare, boosting the economy, according to the socialist government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez — and to the church.

“In the matter of immigration, the church’s position gets into a head-on collision with the position of the right,” said Pablo Simón, a political science professor at University Carlos III in Madrid.

That has created a rift between the church and far-right parties, like Vox in Spain, which has criticized the church on immigration, despite often couching its anti-migrant rhetoric in religious terms.

Days before she is expected to meet Leo, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the firebrand Popular Party conservative regional leader of Madrid, described the migrant legalization push as “importing mass poverty.”

The Rev. Fernando Redondo, who leads the migration department of the Spanish bishops’ conference, said the church’s stance is in line with the Christian mandate to welcome the stranger. But he added it needs better understanding among the many faithful who believe migrants come to steal jobs or live off welfare.

“We have a big challenge, which is raising awareness among our faithful … that from the viewpoint of faith, to welcome a migrant person is to welcome Christ himself,” Redondo said. “Then, of course, there needs to be ways, proper social and political ways, so that migration doesn’t become a total mess.”

In the Canaries, ordinary people have been on the front lines of that often life-endangering chaos — fishermen who hand out drinking water to migrants on ramshackle rafts, sunbathers who run into the sea to help landing migrants, the volunteers who greet them in more than a dozen languages.

But they have also seen that integration can work, as in a small mountain village that was emptying out until a center for three dozen migrant children was opened, creating jobs and filling up the school — and the local church’s annual feast day procession.

That’s why many look forward to Leo bringing a simple but crucial message of reconciliation that focuses on the people impacted, not on the politics.

“The pope doesn’t support this slogan of ‘let’s go, open doors for the whole world here.’ Nobody supports that,” Mazuelos said. “When here comes a gentleman in a wooden boat after five days in the Atlantic, what are we supposed to do, kick him back? We’ve got to find a way to welcome him.”

Dell'Orto reported from Minneapolis.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

FILE - A police officer speaks with migrants and asylum-seekers in Gran Canaria island, Spain, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2020. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)

FILE - Migrants disembark at the port of "La Estaca" in Valverde on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, Aug. 26, 2024. Emergency services said the migrants arrived by boat after a 13-day voyage from Senegal. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Mamadou Patherazi, from Guinea, sits on a bench at the Modern Christian Mission church in Fuerteventura, Canary Islands, Spain, on Aug. 22, 2020. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)

FILE - Migrants crowd a wooden boat as they sail to the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, Sunday, Aug. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)

FILE - Migrants react as they arrive at the port in La Restinga on the Canary island of El Hierro, Spain, on, Aug. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Maria Ximena, File)