Bengals' playoff hopes need a miracle after uncharacteristic error by Burrow and porous defense

Expecting Joe Burrow to play perfect football for six weeks after returning from a turf toe injury and lead the Bengals to the playoffs was always a tall order, even though they nearly managed it last year by winning their last five games.

The harsh reality is that unless Burrow plays error-free football, Cincinnati’s chances of winning are slim given its porous defense.

Cincinnati (4-9) has just a 1% playoff chance after Sunday’s 39-34 loss at Buffalo. The Bengals need both Pittsburgh (7-6) and Baltimore (6-7) to falter, and must win out themselves, to claim the AFC North via a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker.

“I know we’re up against the wall here with whatever our opportunities are, but we got a big home game this week in the division, so we’ve got to be able to pick ourselves up and find a way to respond,” coach Zac Taylor said.

The defeat to the Bills marked the seventh time in two seasons — and the third game this year — where Cincinnati has scored at least 30 points and lost.

The Bengals also became the first team to lose at least three games in consecutive seasons in which they scored at least 34 points. The only other squads to do that in a season are the 2002 Kansas City Chiefs and 1985 San Diego Chargers.

After two weeks of improvement in run defense and tackling, Cincinnati’s earlier problems resurfaced. Poor tackling and lapses in run defense again hampered the team.

Buffalo had 183 rushing yards as James Cook and Josh Allen both had at least 78 yards. Allen’s 17-yard scramble up the middle on third-and-15 with 1:54 remaining allowed the Bills to run out the clock.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Bengals had 13 missed tackles on Sunday after having 12 combined the past two weeks.

The sixth pick-6 of Burrow’s career couldn’t have come at a worse time. The 63-yard interception return came when Buffalo ran a corner blitz, and Bills cornerback Christian Benford jumped the route on a hot read. The second pick came on a tipped pass.

Given the wintery conditions, Burrow’s 264 passing yards and three touchdowns were solid. However, earlier missed opportunities — such as failing to hold a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead against the Jets on Oct. 26, or missing a key tackle in the final minutes against Chicago a week later — have left the Bengals with little room for error.

As a result, the Bengals are assured their first losing record since 2020 and are likely to miss the postseason for the third straight year, despite boasting one of the league’s best quarterback and receiving units.

“Obviously, we’re not where we want to be, as a team or an organization, 4-9 is not good. But we got four games to go and show high-level execution, high-level playmaking,” Burrow said. “I’m going to relish the opportunity to go out and play with these guys, and continue to try to put on a show for everybody watching. I hope that comes across, and I hope that I know I’m going to continue to work hard to put myself in a good position to make plays.”

The Bengals were 10 of 12 on third down, with an 83.3% success rate, their best since 1991. The previous high was 77.8% (14 of 18) in a 2007 win over Tennessee.

Covering tight ends remains a major weakness for Cincinnati’s defense. Buffalo’s tight ends had 11 catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns, exposing this ongoing problem.

TE Mike Gesicki had a season-high six receptions for 86 yards and his first touchdown.

S Geno Stone, who came into the game tied for the league lead with 18 missed tackles, had three more, including one on Allen’s key third-and-15 run.

DE Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis) missed five straight games. CB PJ Jules left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. Higgins returned after two concussion evaluations.

Wide receiver Jermaine Burton was waived on Monday. The second-year player was suspended for Sunday's game. He did not appear in a game this season after having four catches for 107 yards in 14 games last year.

1-8: Cincinnati’s record in out-of-division games.

60.8%: Decrease in Cincinnati’s win probability percentage after Burrow’s pick-6 (from 77% to 16.2%). That is the single biggest win probability swing on a play outside of the final 2 minutes since 2016.

Next up, the Bengals host AFC North rival Baltimore, currently 6-7 and one game out of the division lead after losing 27-22 to Pittsburgh. Cincinnati will try to sweep the season series for the first time since 2021 following its 32-14 win at Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor speaks during a news conference after an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) comes down with a touchdown catch as Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White (27) defends during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor looks out from the sideline during the first half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow speaks during a news conference after an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) shovels the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

France, Scotland or Ireland will clinch the most fun Six Nations in years on Saturday.

Predictions have been torn up and one last twist in the final round of a gripping championship would not surprise.

France is in pole position to win successive titles for the first time since 2006-07. France leads Scotland in the table only on points difference. Its massive though. Ireland is two points behind.

The French have the advantage of closing the championship at a packed Stade de France against an underwhelming England, knowing what they will need to do four hours after Ireland hosts Scotland in Dublin.

Scotland blew open the title race after destroying France's Grand Slam hopes 50-40 in Edinburgh last Saturday.

Scotland's most basic route to a first title since the 1999 Five Nations is beating Ireland and France losing to England. But Scotland hasn't beaten Ireland since 2017 and not in Dublin since 2010. Ireland has been the graveyard of Scotland dreams in their last 11 contests.

Ireland's simplest path to a third title in four years is beating Scotland and also hoping England beats France.

A draw and/or bonus points spin out the scenarios.

Ireland and Scotland are also in the first showdown since 2009 for the Triple Crown, awarded to the home nation which beats the other three home nations. Ireland won it in 2022, 2023 and 2025. Scotland last won it in 1990.

The championship goes into the last round with a first three-way title shootout since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced an October finish. England won on points difference after Ireland and France couldn't meet scoring requirements.

The other Six Nations match on Saturday is also tasty: Wales hosts Italy in Cardiff. Wales is trying to end a 15-match losing streak in the tournament; Italy is trying for three wins in a single championship for the first time.

Fabien Galthié, France: “We don’t dwell on what just happened (against Scotland), we focus on what's coming next. What matters to us is that we've earned the right to play for the win on Saturday. We'll assess the tournament with its highs and lows later. In this Six Nations championship everything can change from one day to the next. All six teams have experienced positive periods and more challenging times. But the most important thing is that we have the opportunity to play for the win on Saturday night. And that's what motivates us.”

Gregor Townsend, Scotland: “No (I haven't thought of winning the title). It's out of our hands, really. We can only do a certain amount. It's a game against an opponent that's had the upper hand on us for years. It's a challenge but a real opportunity for us to go and deliver an even better performance than we did last week. If we win the game we know there's something at stake. That performance (against France) was close to the best that we've seen from this group and from probably any Scotland team. I think the belief is there that when we get our game right it can put pressure on any defense, and when we get our defense in place we can frustrate opposition. But this is a different challenge. Ireland seem to play very well against us so that's what we’re expecting.”

Andy Farrell, Ireland: “Of course you would like to dream (of the title) but the rest is out of our hands. But something is in our hands and we will focus on our performance, first and foremost. It would be nice to win something that is pretty special for us and that's the Triple Crown. It's been hard to come by over the years when playing for Ireland so we're desperate to get across that. (Scotland) were outstanding against France and we have been preparing for another Scottish performance like that. We'll have to be at our best to beat them as they are a side we have always respected.”

Super Saturday

Ireland vs. Scotland, Dublin, 1410 GMT

Wales vs. Italy, Cardiff, 1640 GMT

France vs. England, Paris, 2010 GMT

AP rugby: https://apnews.com/hub/rugby

Ireland's players celebrate after their teammate Jamie Osborne scored a try during a Six Nations rugby union match between Ireland and Wales in Dublin, Ireland, Friday, March 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Peter Morrison)

Scotland's Kyle Steyn celebrates scoring a try during the Six Nations rugby match between Scotland and France in Edinburgh, Scotland, Saturday March 7, 2026. (Andrew Milligan/PA via AP)

France's Antoine Dupont and Scotland's Sione Tuipulotu, left, in action during the Six Nations rugby match between Scotland and France in Edinburgh, Scotland, Saturday March 7, 2026. (Jane Barlow/PA via AP)