What to know about the state gerrymandering battle kick-started by Trump

After a frenetic few months of congressional redistricting efforts, President Donald Trump’s plan to reshape voting districts for partisan advantage ahead of this year’s midterm elections stands at an important juncture.

Will Republican- and Democratic-led states ramp up their remapping of U.S. House districts as new legislative sessions get underway? Or will the mid-decade redistricting frenzy fade away following Indiana’s resounding rejection of Trump’s pressure-packaged campaign?

“We’re at a crossroads to see if the mid-decade redistricting movement gains more speed or was simply an attempt by Donald Trump to impact elections that in many states fizzled,” said Jeffrey Wice, director of the Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute at New York Law School.

Virginia and Florida are two key states to watch. Democrats who lead Virginia and Republicans who lead Florida could try to swing multiple seats in their party’s favor by an aggressive redistricting. Virginia’s legislative session begins Wednesday. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans to call a special session in April on congressional redistricting.

What happens next in Democratic-led Illinois and Maryland and in Kansas' Republican-led Legislature also could affect the GOP’s ability to maintain a narrow House majority in the face of political headwinds that typically favor the party out of power in midterm elections. Key lawmakers in all three of those states remain opposed to redistricting.

Trump kick-started an unusual redistricting plan in July by calling on Texas Republicans to redraw their congressional map to create more favorable districts for the party — even though there was no new census data to base it upon. That triggered a mid-decade redistricting battle the likes of which has not been common since the late 1800s.

Texas, Missouri and North Carolina all approved new Republican-friendly House districts. Ohio, which had to redistrict because of its state constitution, used the opportunity to enact a more favorable House map for Republicans.

But Ohio’s action on Oct. 31 marked a turning point. That same day, Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature took a first step toward redistricting. Then in November, California voters approved new House districts helping Democrats, Kansas Republicans dropped plans for a special session on redistricting, and a Utah judge adopted a new House map that benefits Democrats.

Trump suffered a stunning setback Dec. 11, when Indiana’s Republican-led Senate defeated a redistricting plan that could have helped the GOP win all nine of the state’s U.S. House seats, up from their current seven.

The net result from the 2025 jockeying could be three additional seats for Republicans. But even that is in question, because legal challenges remain in some states, and there is no guarantee that parties will win the districts they redrew.

When the Virginia General Assembly begins its annual session, the agenda will include a proposed constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting in response to other states.

The amendment, which received first-round approval in the fall, would also need to pass a statewide vote before the new districts could be implemented. Quick action would be necessary to get all that accomplished in time for candidates to run in redrawn districts later this year.

Democrats, who currently hold six of the state’s 11 U.S. House seats, have not unveiled what those new districts would look like. But some have talked of trying to gain as many as four additional seats.

Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has embraced the redistricting effort but has not committed to a particular plan.

“I will look at any map that is kind of reasonable and keeping communities compact and together,” Spanberger, a Democrat, told The Associated Press. “But ultimately, it’s up to the people of Virginia to choose whether or not to move forward with the referendum.”

Republicans currently hold 20 of Florida’s 28 U.S. House seats. That advantage could grow if districts are reshaped during a special session.

Although Florida’s regular legislative session starts Tuesday, DeSantis said he is waiting until April to call a special redistricting session to allow time for a possible U.S. Supreme Court ruling on a key provision of the federal Voting Rights Act. If the court rules in a Louisiana case that race cannot be the predominant factor in creating voting districts, it could open the way for several Republican-led states to redraw districts represented by Black or Hispanic lawmakers who are Democrats.

DeSantis said the high court's ruling could affect “at least one or two” Florida districts.

But any redistricting that aids Republicans could face a court challenge. A voter-approved Florida constitutional provision prohibits drawing district boundaries to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent.

Some Democrats seeking to counter Trump have urged lawmakers in Illinois and Maryland to redraw their already heavily Democratic districts to try to gain one additional seat in each state. But the plans appear to lack traction as legislative sessions begin this week in both states.

Illinois House Speaker Pro Tem Kam Buckner said “there is no active push” for congressional redistricting.

“There is no appetite to reopen something that will consume enormous time, energy and, frankly, political capital without a compelling justification,” Buckner, a Democrat, told the AP.

Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore has created a special commission to recommend a new congressional map. But Democratic Senate President Bill Ferguson remains opposed and insists that a majority of residents also do not want new districts.

In Kansas, some Republicans want to redraw U.S. House districts to try to gain an additional seat. But House Republicans have failed to gain the two-thirds support needed to override a likely veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.

House Speaker Dan Hawkins told reporters that he has no plans to hold a vote on congressional redistricting during the annual legislative session that starts Monday.

“I do not have the votes,” Hawkins said.

Associated Press reporters Olivia Diaz, John Hanna, Mike Schneider and Brian Witte contributed to this story.

President Donald Trump points to the crowd as he walks off stage after speaking to House Republican lawmakers during their annual policy retreat, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

FILE - Opponents of Missouri's Republican-backed congressional redistricting plan display a banner in protest at the State Capitol in Jefferson City, Missouri, Sept. 10, 2025. (AP Photo/David A. Lieb, File)

FILE - ndiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith announces the results of a vote to redistrict the state's congressional map, Dec. 11, 2025, at the Statehouse in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy, File)

FILE - This photo taken from video shows organizers rallying outside of the Ohio Statehouse to protest gerrymandering and advocate for lawmakers to draw fair maps in Columbus, Ohio, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Patrick Aftoora-Orsagos, File)

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks of credit card companies are dropping Monday after President Donald Trump threatened moves that could eat into their profits. The rest of Wall Street, meanwhile, is showing only modest signs of concern after tensions ramped to a much higher degree between the White House and the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 erased a small loss from the morning and was inching up by 0.1% from its all-time high set on Friday, as U.S. stocks drifted through mixed trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 81 points, or 0.2%, as of noon Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was up 0.3%.

Some nervousness was still evident in the market, amid concern that the Fed may be on the path to less independence in setting interest rates to keep inflation under control. Prices for gold and other investments that tend to do well when investors are nervous rose, while the value of the U.S. dollar also dipped against other currencies.

On Wall Street, the sharpest drops hit credit card companies, as Synchrony Financial fell 8.2%, Capital One Financial sank 6.4% and American Express fell 4.5%. They weakened after Trump said he wanted to put a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for a year. Such a move could eat into profits for credit card companies.

But it was a separate move by Trump that grabbed the most attention across financial markets. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve’s chair said the U.S. Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment over his testimony about renovations at its headquarters.

With an unusual video statement released on Sunday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said his testimony and the renovations are “pretexts” for the threat of criminal charges, which is really “a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”

The Fed has been locked in a feud with Trump, who has loudly called for lower interest rates to make borrowing cheaper for U.S. households and companies and give the economy a kickstart. The Fed did lower its main interest rate three times last year and indicated more cuts may arrive this year, but it’s moved deliberately enough that Trump has nicknamed Powell “Too Late.”

In a brief interview with NBC News Sunday, Trump insisted he didn’t know about the investigation into Powell. When asked if the investigation is intended to pressure Powell on rates, Trump said, “No. I wouldn’t even think of doing it that way.”

The Fed has traditionally operated separately from the rest of Washington, making its decisions without having to bend to political whims. Such independence, the thinking goes, gives it the freedom to keep interest rates high when necessary to drive down high inflation, even if it slows the economy and frustrates politicians looking to please voters.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly rose to 4.21%, up from 4.18% late Friday, amid concerns that a less independent Fed could lead to higher inflation over the longer term. But it later eased back to 4.18%.

The worries also hit the value of the U.S. dollar, which slipped 0.3% against the euro and 0.4% against the Swiss franc.

Financial markets could be shaking off concerns about the Fed's independence for a couple reasons. Traders could see “a limitation to the White House’s success in getting its way,” according to Thierry Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie Group, because Congress could deny confirmation of any nominees for the Fed from the White House.

“It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question,” Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, said on social media. “I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is fully resolved.”

Trump has already criticized the Fed sharply, and he’s trying at the moment to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, but the Fed’s rate-setting committee still seems to be acting independently.

Plus, this latest move could encourage Powell to stay on at the Fed as a governor until his term expires in 2028, even though his term as chair will end in May, said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

“With the political pressure on the Fed, he may choose to stay on as a governor out of spite,” he said. "It would deprive President Trump of the ability to stack the board with another appointee."

On Wall Street, Abercrombie & Fitch dropped 15.7% after the retailer gave a forecasted range for profit in the final quarter of 2025 whose midpoint fell short of analysts' expectations. Its forecast for growth in revenue also fell shy of Wall Street's.

On the winning side of the market was Walmart, which climbed 3.6% after learning that its stock will join the widely followed Nasdaq 100 index. Google also said Sunday that it's expanding the shopping features in its AI chatbot by teaming up with Walmart and several other big retailers.

The price of gold rose 2.8% to $4,626.80 per ounce and was heading toward another record.

In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe and Asia. Stocks jumped 1.4% in Hong Kong and 1.1% in Shanghai for two of the world’s bigger gains following reports that Chinese leaders were preparing more help for the economy.

AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

James Lamb works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Specialist Anthony Matesic works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Daniel Kryger works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Dealers watch computer monitors near the screens showing the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

A dealer walks near the screens showing the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won and the Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (KOSDAQ) at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

Dealers talk near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), left, and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

A dealer walks near the screens showing the foreign exchange rates at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)