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10% of US House members have announced they're not running for reelection, an AP analysis shows

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10% of US House members have announced they're not running for reelection, an AP analysis shows
News

News

10% of US House members have announced they're not running for reelection, an AP analysis shows

2026-01-15 22:00 Last Updated At:22:10

WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s starting to look like an exodus.

Dozens of U.S. House members have announced they are not running for reelection, putting a record number of seats up for grabs at this point in the midterm election cycle.

Some are seeking other offices, while others are retiring after decades of service. A few members are departing instead of running in unfamiliar districts after their state’s leaders redrew the boundaries during an unusual flurry of redistricting.

More than 10% of incumbents plan to leave, which is the highest percentage at this point in the calendar since at least President Barack Obama's administration, according to an Associated Press analysis of House retirements going back to 2013.

Forty-seven current representatives — 21 Democrats and 26 Republicans — have announced they will retire from the House after this year, as of Wednesday. That total doesn’t include the nine members who resigned or died this term and whose seats will be filled before the November general election.

Members of the current Congress have announced departure plans earlier than in years past. In the first half of 2025, 15 representatives announced they were planning on leaving the House. In the previous decade, an average of nine representatives announced retirements in the first six months of a term.

These early retirement announcements have come as President Donald Trump and Republican leadership try to preserve a narrow House majority. The president’s party usually loses congressional seats in midterm elections. In recent years, that’s meant more members of the party in power have headed for the exits. This year, slightly more Republicans than Democrats have announced retirements.

Three factors have contributed to the spike in retirements this year.

The first is that a large number of Senate seats and governors’ offices are open or competitive. Eleven senators have announced they would vacate their seats at the end of the term, either to seek other office or to retire. And 36 states have governors’ elections this year, 15 of which have term-limited incumbents.

In total, 27 — a majority of retiring House members — said they would seek another office. Fourteen said they would seek Senate seats, and 12 announced campaigns for governor. Some have since dropped out of those races.

The second is systemic: A larger number of older lawmakers are retiring because Congress itself is older. As the national population has aged and long-running trends have made incumbents increasingly likely to win reelection, Congress has steadily gotten older, especially this century.

As of Jan. 1, the median age of all voting members of the 119th Congress is just under 59 years old. The median House member is 57 and the median senator is almost 65 — both slightly below the record highs reached in the 118th Congress. By contrast, from 1919 to 1999, the median senator never eclipsed 60 years old, and the median representative never surpassed 55.

That age shift is especially evident among retiring legislators. Among all lawmakers leaving after the 119th Congress — including those running for other offices — the median retiring senator is over 68, and the median retiring representative is about 57. When limited to politicians who are not seeking other offices, both groups skew older: The median retiring senator is over 70, and the median retiring representative is 67. Four of the 10 oldest members of Congress are retiring after this term, as of Wednesday.

And the third is unique to 2026. Six states have adopted new congressional maps since the last general election, with more entertaining redistricting in response to Trump’s desire to redraw lines to be more favorable to the Republican Party.

Incumbents in states ranging from California to Texas have been drawn into districts together or have opted out of running in new versions of their districts that are much less favorable.

Only a small number of representatives — two in Texas — have specifically cited redistricting as the reason for their departure. But as more states finalize their lines, others could find themselves running against colleagues or eying the exits.

Current congressional retirement and party makeup data comes from the U.S. House of Representatives Press Gallery’s official casualty list and party breakdown page. Historical retirement data through the 113th Congress (2013-15) was compiled from earlier versions of that webpage, accessed via the Internet Archive.

The Press Gallery distinguishes between members who are retiring and those who die in office or resign. Members who died in office and most members who resigned during their terms are excluded. Representatives who announced their retirement but resigned in that term are classified as “resigned” and therefore excluded. This includes, for example, former representatives like Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Kelly Armstrong, R-N.D., who retired to seek other offices and resigned several weeks before their final term officially ended. Five representatives are classified as “retiring” because they announced retirements during their final term but resigned three days before that term officially expired: Candice Miller, R-Mich., in the 114th; Michelle Lujan Grisham, D-N.M., in the 115th; Mike Doyle, D-Pa., and G.K. Butterfield, D-N.C., in the 117th; and Jeff Jackson, D-N.C., in the 118th.

Announcement dates were manually collected, based on news reports and official press releases. Representatives who announced plans to run for another office are recorded as running for that office even if they later withdrew from that race.

Associated Press writer Leah Askarinam in Washington contributed to this report.

FILE - The U.S. Capitol is seen shortly after sunrise, Dec. 16, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

FILE - The U.S. Capitol is seen shortly after sunrise, Dec. 16, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson, File)

U.S., Danish and Greenlandic officials have met face to face to discuss President Donald Trump's ambitions to take control of Greenland, a semiautonomous territory of Denmark. At the same time, Denmark and several European allies are sending troops to Greenland in a pointed signal of intent to boost the vast Arctic island's security.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said after a meeting in Washington on Wednesday with his Greenlandic counterpart, U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that a “fundamental disagreement” remained. He acknowledged that “we didn't manage to change the American position” but said he hadn't expected to.

However, Wednesday's events did point to ways ahead.

Denmark, Greenland and the U.S. agreed to form a high-level working group “to explore if we can find a common way forward,” Løkke Rasmussen said. He added that he expects the group to hold its first meeting “within a matter of weeks.”

Danish and Greenlandic officials didn't specify who would be part of the group or give other details. Løkke Rasmussen said the group should focus on how to address U.S. security concerns while respecting Denmark's “red lines.” The two countries are NATO allies.

“Whether that is doable, I don't know,” he added, holding out hope that the exercise could “take down the temperature.”

He wouldn't elaborate on what a compromise might look like, and expectations are low. As Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen put it Thursday, having the group is better than having no working group and “it's a step in the right direction.” It will at least allow the two sides to talk with each other rather than about each other.

Trump has argued repeatedly that the U.S. needs control of Greenland for its national security. He has sought to justify his calls for a U.S. takeover by repeatedly claiming that China and Russia have their own designs on Greenland, which holds vast untapped reserves of critical minerals.

Just as the talks were taking place in Washington on Wednesday, the Danish Defense Ministry announced that it was increasing its military presence in Greenland, along with NATO allies. France, Germany, Norway and Sweden announced that they were each sending very small numbers of troops in a symbolic but pointed move signaling solidarity with Copenhagen.

The U.K. said one British officer was part of what it called a reconnaissance group for an Arctic endurance exercise. The German Defense Ministry, which dispatched 13 troops, said the aim is to sound out “possibilities to ensure security with a view to Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic.” It said it was sending them on a joint flight from Denmark as “a strong signal of our unity.”

Poulsen said that "the Danish Armed Forces, together with a number of Arctic and European allies, will explore in the coming weeks how an increased presence and exercise activity in the Arctic can be implemented in practice,” he said.

On Thursday, he said the intention was “to establish a more permanent military presence with a larger Danish contribution,” and to invite allies to take part in exercises and training on a rotating basis, according to Danish broadcaster DR.

While the European troops are largely symbolic at this point, the timing was no accident.

The deployment “serves both to send a political signal and military signal to America, but also indeed to recognize that Arctic security should be reinforced more," said Maria Martisiute, an analyst at the European Policy Center in Brussels. "And first and foremost, this should be done through allied effort, not by the U.S. coming and wanting to take it over. So it complicates the situation for the U.S.”

The European efforts are Danish-led and not coordinated through NATO, which is dominated by the United States. But the European allies are keen to keep NATO in play, and Germany said that “the aim is to obtain a well-founded picture on the ground for further talks and planning within NATO."

Poulsen has said he and Greenland's foreign minister plan to meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels on Monday to discuss security in and around the Arctic. NATO has been studying ways to bolster security in the Arctic region.

“I’m really looking forward for an announcement of some kind of military activity or deployment under NATO’s framework,” Martisiute said. “Otherwise there is indeed a risk that ... NATO is paralyzed and that would not be good.”

Sylvain Plazy in Brussels contributed to this report.

Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt speak at a news conference at the Embassy of Denmark, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt speak at a news conference at the Embassy of Denmark, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

An Airbus A400M transport aircraft of the German Air Force taxis over the grounds at Wunstorf Air Base in the Hanover region, Germany, Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026 as troops from NATO countries, including France and Germany, are arriving in Greenland to boost security. (Moritz Frankenberg/dpa via AP)

An Airbus A400M transport aircraft of the German Air Force taxis over the grounds at Wunstorf Air Base in the Hanover region, Germany, Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026 as troops from NATO countries, including France and Germany, are arriving in Greenland to boost security. (Moritz Frankenberg/dpa via AP)

Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt speak at a news conference at the Embassy of Denmark, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt speak at a news conference at the Embassy of Denmark, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

A man rides by on a quad bike past a row of Greenlandic national flags in Nuuk, Greenland, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

A man rides by on a quad bike past a row of Greenlandic national flags in Nuuk, Greenland, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

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