Trump's ceasefire plan faces great uncertainty as it moves into a new phase

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Trump's ceasefire plan faces great uncertainty as it moves into a new phase

2026-01-16 02:48 Last Updated At：02:51

JERUSALEM (AP) — The White House says it is moving into the second phase of President Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan – breathing new life into a proposal that aims to rebuild the war-ravaged area and reshape the wider Middle East.

Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, broke the news Wednesday in a post on X, saying the new phase will include the establishment of a transitional Palestinian governing committee and begin the complicated tasks of disarming Hamas and reconstruction.

But the announcement included few details about the new Palestinian committee or other key aspects of the plan, signaling just how much work lies ahead.

Trump's 20-point plan — which was approved by the U.N. Security Council — lays out an ambitious vision for ending Hamas’ rule in Gaza. If successful, it would see the rebuilding of a demilitarized Gaza under international supervision, the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world, and the creation of a possible pathway to Palestinian independence.

But if the deal stalls, Gaza could be trapped in an unstable limbo for years to come, with Hamas remaining in control of parts of the territory, Israel’s army enforcing an open-ended occupation, and its residents stuck homeless, unemployed, unable to travel abroad and dependent on international aid to stay alive.

“We’re going to do our best to try and see if we can work with the Palestinian people to try something new,” said a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the evolving plan. “It will be hard to do,” he acknowledged.

Here is a closer look at the next stages of the ceasefire and the potential pitfalls.

The ceasefire took effect on Oct. 10, halting two years of fighting between Israel and Hamas. It also included the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians held by Israel.

The ceasefire has largely held, though both sides accuse each other of ongoing violations. Israeli fire has killed more than 400 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials. Israel says it has targeted militants or responded to violations of the ceasefire, but the Palestinians say scores of civilians have been shot.

Palestinian militants, meanwhile, continue to hold the remains of the last hostage — an Israeli police officer killed in the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear he is in no rush to move forward until the remains are returned.

Netanyahu appeared to play down Witkoff’s announcement as symbolic, calling the creation of a new Palestinian committee a “ declarative move.”

The new committee will consist of independent Palestinian experts who are to run Gaza’s daily affairs under American supervision.

Wednesday’s announcement didn't say who will serve on the committee. But the other mediators of the ceasefire — Egypt, Turkey and Qatar — said it would be led by Ali Shaath, an engineer and former deputy minister in the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

The U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said other names are expected in the next two days, and the committee will focus on attracting investment and improving the quality of life.

“This really will be a technocratic committee,” he said. “They seem to be a group that wants to have peace.”

The committee will report to the Board of Peace, a group of world leaders supervising the ceasefire and led by Trump. If the Palestinian committee is seen as just a façade, it risks not gaining public support.

Also, its exact powers remain unclear. Hamas has said it will dissolve its government once the committee takes office, but it has shown no signs that it will dismantle its military wing or security forces.

The board will oversee the ceasefire, reconstruction and an open-ended reform process by the Palestinian Authority, with the goal of one day allowing the internationally recognized authority to return to Gaza to govern.

The U.S. official said invitations for the board have been extended, but he declined to name any of the people expected to join. “It’s going to be a great list,” he said.

The key challenge will be forming a board that can work with Israel, Hamas, the mediators and international aid agencies.

One key appointment appears to have been made. Nickolay Mladenov, a former Bulgarian politician and U.N. Mideast envoy, is expected to serve as the board’s on-the-ground representative. He already has met with Netanyahu and Palestinian leaders in the occupied West Bank.

Trump's plan calls for the formation of an International Stabilization Force to maintain security and train Palestinian police to one day to take over. That force hasn't been formed yet, and a deployment date hasn't been announced.

The U.S. official insisted there is “great excitement” over the force and said there would be important announcements in the coming weeks.

But the force’s command structure and authorities remain unknown.

Hamas said it will oppose any attempts by the force to disarm it, and contributing nations may not to want to risk clashes with the militant group. Israel, meanwhile, is hesitant to trust an international body with its security needs.

Trump’s plan calls for an economic development outline to “rebuild and energize Gaza,” which suffered widespread destruction during the war and where most of the territory’s 2 million people are displaced and unemployed.

Still, no such plan has been announced, and it remains unclear who will pay for a process the U.N. estimates will cost $70 billion.

The ceasefire deal calls for Hamas to surrender its weapons under the supervision of international monitors. Militants who disarm will be granted amnesty and the option to leave Gaza.

However, Hamas, whose ideology is based on armed resistance against Israel, has said it won't disarm until Israel ends its occupation of Palestinian territories.

Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas official, told The Associated Press last month that the group is open to “ freezing or storing” its weapons while a political process takes place, perhaps over many years. It is unclear whether that would be sufficient for Israel.

Failure to disarm Hamas could lead to renewed fighting with Israel and clashes with international troops, and could block progress on the rest of the peace plan.

Under the ceasefire, Israel is to withdraw from all of Gaza, with the exception of a small buffer zone along the border. At the moment, Israel retains control of just over half of Gaza.

The plan says further withdrawals will be based upon “standards, milestones and timeframes linked to demilitarization” to be negotiated by Israel, the U.S., the international force and other “guarantors.”

There are no firm timelines for further withdrawals, and Israel may refuse to pull back further.

The plan calls for an overhaul of the Palestinian Authority, which runs the West Bank, and the creation of conditions for a “credible pathway” to Palestinian statehood.

Palestinian officials say they have begun making reforms in key areas such as corruption, the education system and payments to families of prisoners convicted in attacks on Israelis.

Israel rejects the creation of a Palestinian state and opposes any role for the authority in postwar Gaza. Without a pathway to statehood, any Palestinian support for the new system could crumble. The plan also offers no clear benchmarks or timelines for the reform process.

Texan James Talarico becomes a fresh face of Democrats' midterm hopes after Senate primary win

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — James Talarico barely mentioned Donald Trump when he finally got to give his victory speech on Wednesday night as Democrats' nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas.

But the 36-year-old state lawmaker is now a front man for the left's opposition to Trump, not just in his own state but around the country. With his victory over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, the state lawmaker from Austin will test whether a smiling message of unity and change is enough to answer voters’ frustrations amid discord at home and now a war abroad.

“We're done being divided. We're done being played,” Talarico said, several times invoking his Christian faith and promising a “politics of love.”

“We're not just trying to win an election. We are trying to fundamentally change our politics,” he said, adding that he's “tired of being told to hate my neighbor.”

Talarico acknowledged that his immediate challenge is consolidating support from Crockett's supporters who flocked to the congresswoman's unapologetically pugilistic approach to Trump and Republicans. He told them, “I hope to earn your trust."

Crockett conceded to Talarico on Wednesday morning, saying that Texas “must remain united because this is bigger than any one person.”

Talarico also got an endorsement and a fundraising email blast from former Vice President Kamala Harris, who previously backed Crockett in the primary.

Talarico will need all the help he can get in a Republican-dominated state where Democrats have gone three decades without winning a statewide race. He will face either U.S. Sen. John Cornyn or state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who advanced to a Republican runoff on Tuesday.

Conventional political wisdom has Talarico as the stronger Democratic candidate for November, especially if Republicans nominate Paxton, a conservative firebrand who has weathered allegations of corruption and infidelity over the years.

Although Democrats are often choosing between moderate and progressive candidates in primaries, they faced a largely stylistic choice in Texas.

Talarico, 36, is a Presbyterian seminarian and rarely raises his voice. Crockett, 44, is an unapologetic political brawler who hammers Trump and other Republicans with acidic flourish.

But Talarico’s broader argument is one that he could have made regardless of whether Trump was in the White House. He regularly assails the rise in Christian nationalism. A former teacher, he advocates for public education. And he's said often, and again Wednesday, that the country’s fundamental divide is not partisan but “top vs. bottom.”

He's not running, he said, against Cornyn, Paxton or “any one politician” but against “the billionaire mega donors and their corrupt political system.”

Lea Downey Gallatin, 40, an Austin resident who met Talarico when they interned together for a congressman, described him as “a serious advocate for the disenfranchised and a serious policymaker.”

Talarico campaigned on the theory that he could pull new people into the party's tent, while Crockett promised she could increase turnout within Democrats' base.

“If you hate politics and you never voted before, you have a home in this campaign,” he said. He also reached out to erstwhile Trump voters who are “fed up with the extremism and the corruption in our government.”

In the closing stretch of the primary campaign, Talarico posed for pictures and greeted the singer of a Tejano band playing in a San Antonio neighborhood. Inside his campaign rally that day, Lori Alvarez, a 39-year-old who works for a disaster relief nonprofit, said she supported Talarico because “he really listens to what we need."

"I think he’s going to be able to make change in Washington for us,” said the married mother of three young girls.

Unofficial primary returns showed Talarico with a dominating performance around his home base of Austin, including in mostly white areas. He outpaced Crockett across much of rural and small-town Texas, including in the Rio Grande Valley, where Trump made gains in his 2024 presidential victory among Hispanic voters. Crockett was strongest in metro Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth, including areas with large concentrations of Black voters.

Crockett is Black, and Talarico is white.

A Democratic win in Texas would require stitching together that multiracial and multiethnic coalition, spanning the metro areas and heavily Latino South and West Texas, while limiting Republican margins in whiter rural counties.

In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke came the closest to that mix, losing to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by about 215,000 votes or about 2.5 percentage points. With both parties holding competitive primaries Tuesday, Democratic primary voters outnumbered Republicans by about 180,000 out of more than 4.4 million — with some ballots still being tallied.

Talarico and other Democrats say enthusiasm is on their side this year. But there were plenty of Democratic Texans who saw Crockett as their champion.

Troy Burrow, a 61-year-old Navy retiree, called her “rugged” and “the only one I see fighting for us.”

He added, “I like how she doesn’t back down from anybody.”

Burrow said some voters probably saw Talarico as more electable because he is more soft-spoken. But, he said, “We’ve got to get into the gutter with these folks, because that’s where they are.”

Talarico, meanwhile, promised to fight in his own way — again invoking his faith.

“Two thousand years ago, when the powerful few at the top hurt those at the bottom, that barefoot rabbi didn't stay in his room and pray,” Talarico said, referencing Jesus and the Biblical story of his anger in the temple. “He walked into the seat of power and flipped over the tables of injustice."

He added that "it's time to start flipping tables.”

Barrow reported from Atlanta, Figueroa from Austin, Texas, and Beaumont from San Antonio. Associated Press writer Maya Sweedler in Washington contributed to this report.

This story has corrected the last name of Texas voter Troy Burrow, from Burroughs.