The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2025 and 2026 to 5.0 and 4.5 percent respectively in its updated World Economic Outlook released on Monday.
This upward revision reflects stronger economic activity supported by stimulus measures and additional investment financing from policy banks, which have helped sustain domestic demand and bolster confidence amid external pressures, according to the report.
According to the IMF, the global economy is expected to remain relatively resilient despite trade disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
The IMF projects global growth to reach approximately 3.3 percent in 2026, an upward adjustment of 0.2 percentage points from its October forecast, with stronger performance in major economies such as the United States and China contributing to the revision.
China's stronger outlook is partly due to improved export performance and supportive fiscal and credit policies, the report says.
China's policymakers have also responded to IMF recommendations by enhancing macroeconomic support, including targeted fiscal measures, continued monetary accommodation, and efforts to stimulate private investment and consumption.
These measures align with the IMF's emphasis on balancing external resilience with sustainable domestic growth.
In recent months, China has stepped up policy responses that align closely with IMF recommendations, placing greater emphasis on stabilizing growth while managing longer-term risks.
Measures to boost domestic demand, support infrastructure and high-quality investment, and maintain conducive macroeconomic conditions have been central to this approach.
At the same time, Chinese policymakers have reiterated their commitment to structural reform and financial stability.
Despite the positive revisions, the IMF has highlighted ongoing risks, saying trade tensions, policy uncertainty and potential financial vulnerabilities could weigh on medium-term economic prospects.
A number of major global institutions have recently published positive growth forecasts for China's economy in 2026, highlighting robust policy support and underlying economic resilience.
The World Bank has raised its forecast for China's 2026 economic growth to 4.4 percent, noting that "recent fiscal measures, alongside some stabilities in global trade policy, are expected to support investment and exports."
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast that China's growth for 2026 will reach 4.3 percent, pointing to the "stronger-than-expected growth in the first three quarters of 2025" and the "new policy support."
Goldman Sachs has upgraded its estimate for China's 2026 GDP growth to 4.8 percent, crediting the rising expectations to "surprising strength in exports" and the country's "commitment to more advanced manufacturing in a new Five-Year Plan boost."
Standard Chartered has set its forecast for China's 2026 GDP growth at 4.6 percent, citing "tech-driven investment and productivity gains" and an "increasing policy focus on boosting domestic consumption."
Swiss banking giant UBS has projected a 4.5-percent growth rate for China's GDP in 2026, saying overall domestic activities are likely to stay largely resilient, infrastructure and manufacturing investment will recover modestly, and innovation and the 'new economy' will continue to develop.
IMF raises China's economic growth forecast
