U.S. Home Price Growth Hits Softest Rate Since Great Recession

News

U.S. Home Price Growth Hits Softest Rate Since Great Recession

2026-02-04 00:47 Last Updated At：00:51

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb 3, 2026--

Cotality™, a leader in property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions, released its Home Price Index™ for December 2025 data today. Home price growth slowed to 0.9% — one of the softest rates since the post-Great Recession recovery. The slowdown shows the market is rebalancing, and strong economic and housing fundamentals are necessary to support local housing demand.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260203460372/en/

“We are seeing a significant departure from the rapid surges of recent years; while the upward pressure on prices remains, the momentum has moderated enough to suggest that the market is finally becoming more navigable for prospective buyers,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

While national growth remains soft, the Midwest and parts of the Northeast continue to do well because of their relative affordability, diversified job markets, and hybrid work dynamics. States like New Jersey (+5.5%), Illinois (+5.4%), Nebraska (+5.4%), and Connecticut (+5.1%) are among the nation’s strongest performers, with markets like Newark, NJ; Allentown, PA; and Chicago bucking the national cooling trend.

7 States reached new high home price growth as of December 2025

On the other hand, negative home price growth is dominating the South and the West — including Florida, Texas, Colorado, Washington D.C., Hawaii, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, and California — mostly due to higher inventory levels and fewer people moving into once-hot markets.

While December’s data confirms that the U.S. housing market is entering a clear rebalancing phase, there are signs that the slowdown may be leveling off. In December, fewer of the top 100 metros recorded slowing appreciation compared to the previous year — 49 out of 100 compared to 77 earlier in the fall. Falling Mortgage rates, which are down 50 basis points since the summer, are helping stabilize the housing market.

The next Cotality Home Price Index will be released on March 3, 2026, featuring data for January 2026. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the Cotality Insights blog: www.cotality.com/insights.

Methodology

The Cotality HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing, and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the Cotality HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The Cotality HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

Cotality HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price — as a function of real disposable income per capita — with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, Cotality HPI Forecasts project Cotality HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the Cotality HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. Cotality data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the Cotality HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: Cotality

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from Cotality. Any Cotality data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Cotality, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs, or other visual elements, the Cotality logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Charity Head at newsmedia@Cotality.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of Cotality. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About Cotality

Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of real-time data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at www.cotality.com.

Luka Doncic's injury could mean he's out of the NBA award race. How does that process work?

Luka Doncic is almost certainly going to win the NBA scoring title this season. And it's now very possible that he doesn't make the All-NBA team.

That's rare, but it might be this season's reality.

The roster of award-caliber players who won't be winning awards this season continues to grow, with Doncic — the Los Angeles Lakers standout guard and MVP candidate — now out with a left hamstring injury. Minnesota guard Anthony Edwards is certain to miss the league's 65-game award eligibility threshold as well after he was held out Thursday because of illness.

Doncic has played 64 games, so he would fall just short of the mark if his hamstring issue keeps him out for the remainder of the regular season -- which has barely over a week remaining. It's worth noting that BetMGM Sportsbook, among others, took Doncic off the list of MVP betting options following his injury Thursday.

“Health is wealth. ... We'll see what happens,” Lakers star LeBron James said.

Edwards can now only reach a maximum of 64 games as well, so he won’t be on the ballot for most major NBA awards either.

It was collectively bargained — meaning the league and the players association agreed on the terms — and this is the third season of it being part of the NBA rules.

It applies to player eligibility for five awards — MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, the All-NBA Team and the All-Defensive Team. Players have to either play in 65 regular-season games (with some minutes-played minimums in there as well), or at least 62 games before suffering a “season-ending injury."

But even if Doncic's hamstring keeps him out for the rest of the regular season, it wouldn't be classified as “season-ending” unless a doctor — jointly selected by the NBA and the National Basketball Players Association — says he wouldn't be able to play again through May 31.

There is a grievance process and even a way to challenge the rule citing extraordinary circumstances, but neither would be easily utilized.

Five of the league's six highest-paid players this season — Golden State's Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, Philadelphia's Joel Embiid, Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo and Boston's Jayson Tatum — aren't eligible for awards. Denver's Nikola Jokic is the exception on the highest-paid list, and he'd likely be ineligible if he misses another game as well.

There were 23 players on the list of those winning MVP, MIP, DPOY, All-NBA and All-Defense last season. Of those, at least 10 are out of the running for honors this season: Antetokounmpo, Curry, Edwards, James, Tatum, Detroit's Cade Cunningham, Indiana teammates Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac, Utah's Jaren Jackson Jr. and Oklahoma City's Jalen Williams.

Another four award winners from a year ago — Jokic, Oklahoma City's Lu Dort, Golden State's Draymond Green and Cleveland's Evan Mobley — aren't at 65 games yet this season but, for now anyway, seem on pace to get there.

Never say never. The union wants changes to the policy, and it's certain to come up in their conversations with the league office. But many players — and even Andre Iguodala, now the head of the players' association — have said in recent years that the 65-game rule is a good thing.

The league doesn't seem inclined to make a change based solely on what would appear to be an extraordinary number of award candidates not hitting the threshold in one year.

“I think it is working,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said last month. “I think if you look at the numbers, the pre-implementation of this rule, numbers were going in the wrong direction. I may have this a little bit off: I think the three years before we adopted this rule, almost a third of the All-NBA players had not played 80% of the games. That was a huge issue for the league.”

As we said, it's rare, but it has happened. Twice, to be exact.

— 1968-69: Elvin Hayes won the scoring title as a rookie, then wasn't even All-NBA — and didn't win Rookie of the Year, either.

— 1975-76: Bob McAdoo won his third consecutive scoring title and was second in the MVP race — but didn't make All-NBA. Players voted for MVP in those days, and McAdoo was an extremely close second behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Dave Cowens was third in the MVP vote but got the second-team All-NBA nod at center, with Abdul-Jabbar the first-team pick.

Doncic could join that list. He was scheduled for an MRI on Friday to determine the extent of his hamstring injury. It's not mathematically certain yet that he wins the scoring title, but it would take something extraordinary for it not to happen.

He's averaging 33.5 points per game, with Gilgeous-Alexander at 31.6 per game. For Gilgeous-Alexander — last season's scoring champion — to overtake Doncic, he would need to go on an unbelievable run. An example: He'd need to score 292 points over the final five games to take over the top spot, and nobody other than Wilt Chamberlain has had a five-game run like that.

Of the previous 79 scoring champions, 64 were first-team All-NBA and 13 were second-team.

Jokic is going to win the league's rebounding and assist titles, while averaging a triple-double yet again. But he's also not assured yet of being on the award ballots.

The thresholds are different.

While the award mandate is 65 games in most cases, players are eligible for most statistical awards if they play in 58 games (or 70% of the season). There are different standards for some stat awards, such as field-goal percentage (minimum 300 made), free-throw percentage (minimum 125 made) and 3-point percentage (minimum 82 made).

A player can win a stat award while appearing in less than 58 games.

For example, last season, San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama played only 46 games but still won the blocked shot title. Even if he played in the minimum 58 games and recorded no blocks in the 12 games needed to reach that number he still would have been ahead of the runner-up, Utah's Walker Kessler.

AP NBA: https://www.apnews.com/hub/NBA